Member Info for CF73

So, what has changed? Why are things picking up at NCCL?

Exhibit 3

-----------------------------

The Malawi-Mozambique (from Tete to Malawi) Interconnecter Line & Substation reached financial close (costing $127m), funded by Germany, World Bank and Norway:

“The German government is providing 30 million euros (about 35 million US dollars) for the regional interconnection project and to strengthen internal communications along the EDM transmission lines. The World Bank has provided 42 million dollars, and the contribution from the Norwegian government is 24 million dollars, channelled via the World Bank. These three financing agreements became effective as from this month.”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008030091.html

[And again:]

“The Mozambique-Malawi interconnector attained financial closure and is at construction stage and is expected to be commissioned in 2022.”
https://www.chronicle.co.zw/over-3-500mw-of-power-commissioned-as-sadc-energy-cooperation-pays-off/

-----------------------------
Significance?
-----------------------------

NCCLs Transmission Study has supported process directly. NCCL have said so themselves:

“#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid”
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

-----------------------------

And that, according to our CEO,

“…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the study, have fallen away.”
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1290988715721068546

-----------------------------

They have reached financial close (costing $127m) on an interconnector line and substation in the very area our project is located, where other proposed projects have fallen away, and where Transmission Study has directly supported the identification, mapping and development of that infrastructure.

So, in a nutshell, all that infrastructure is for us – because this Billion$$$ project is happening.

For folks interested, NCCL is (currently) in possession of a Coal2Power project in Tete region, Mozambique.

While there have been delays and changes, there is a perception the company is prone to issues, even risky.

But the company and project have had enormous support, from seriously major stakeholders, behind the scenes, for some time.

Exhibit 1
Look at our major project partners
- CMEC (who come representing China and its Belt and Road Initiative)
- General Electric (who recently $13Billion on Coal tech, when buying up Alstom)
- Africa Finance Corporation (AFC). Largest Private Funding institution in Africa, specialising in infrastructure, raw minerals and power. Their role at Ncondezi is their bread/ butter, holding 15% of our stock!
- Moz Government working directly with Beijing; Binding JDA signing ceremony 2019

Exhibit 2
Look a the list of major shareholders https://www.ncondezienergy.com/significant-shareholders/
- 48% listed here. Add 5% to 10% just below that list, say c.55% held v. tightly.
- C.20% LTHs
- Free float c.25%

When properly understood, is possible to see how the realisation of the project is absolutely inevitable. And, certainly, things improved majorly when CMEC and GE came on board.

Great stuff Badeli!

Your knowledge and support here is appreciated by me and many other LTHs, am sure!

Let's keep pushing all the way to fair value! :-)

Indeed Buchannon!

Scott Fletcher owns 15% - is a massive holding. He knows what's going on here.

I posted this the other day, regarding major shareholders and free float:

--------------------------

As #NCCL moves through this news rich period, towards game-changing news, with remembering that a great deal of the NCCL stock is in good to very tight hands. By normal standards, the free float is very small:

Significant holders:

Africa Finance Corp: 15.72%
S. Fletcher: 15.08%
Polenergia: 8.32%
M. Haworth: 4.79%
Weatherheads: 4.06%

A total of c.48%

https://www.ncondezienergy.com/significant-shareholders/

Add 5%-10% just below list (people who might 2%, 3%, not appreaing on the list, perhaps very well connected, and even connected to the company).

So, if we include those, say 55% in very tight hands!

Then add c.20% for LTHs, folks Badeli, AlexE, GGG, ChrisHutch etc. People who I would class as LTHs and very good hands.

That's a confident overall total of c.75% - leaving a free float ofjust c.25%. Extremely unusual for an AIM share.

The scramble for shares has already started!

In a nutshell:

-----------------------------

The Malawi-Mozambique (from Tete to Malawi) Interconnecter Line & Substation reached financial close (costing $127m), funded by Germany, World Bank and Norway:

“The German government is providing 30 million euros (about 35 million US dollars) for the regional interconnection project and to strengthen internal communications along the EDM transmission lines. The World Bank has provided 42 million dollars, and the contribution from the Norwegian government is 24 million dollars, channelled via the World Bank. These three financing agreements became effective as from this month.”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008030091.html

[And again:]

“The Mozambique-Malawi interconnector attained financial closure and is at construction stage and is expected to be commissioned in 2022.”
https://www.chronicle.co.zw/over-3-500mw-of-power-commissioned-as-sadc-energy-cooperation-pays-off/

-----------------------------
Significance?
-----------------------------

NCCLs Transmission Study has supported process directly. NCCL have said so themselves:

“#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid”
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

-----------------------------

And that, according to our CEO,
“…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the study, have fallen away.”

-----------------------------

They have reached financial close on an interconnector line and substation in the very area our project is located, where other proposed projects have fallen away, and where our work has directly supported the identification, mapping and development of that infrastructure.

So, in a nutshell, all that infrastructure is for us!

Hi Extrader,

Very possible, what you say.

I should when I said, ..."were relevant sections of our tender lifted out and pasted into their respective areas of the tender docs??.."

I meant ..."were relevant sections of our [Transmission Study] lifted out and pasted into their respective areas of the tender docs??.."

Doesn't affect the point the you were/ are making, I don't think, but was worth clarifying :-)

Not forgetting that NCCLs Transmission Study has fed directly into this. Was thinking earlier, were those tenders in effect written by NCCL? Put another way, were relevant sections of our tender lifted out and pasted into their respective areas of the tender docs??

Looking extremely good from here.

Now that we see this interconnector news as critical, I can see how we missed it before, or at least how we weren't in a position to be able to use this as any kinf of confirmation:

The following two newsitems. The first, below, is from Jan 2018.

https://www.facebook.com/eudtomalawi/posts/power-for-malawi-eu-supports-the-mozambique-malawi-inter-connector-with-a-grant-/1981345688805933/

The second, below, is from August 2019, almost a year ago.

https://furtherafrica.com/2019/08/19/mozambique-malawi-power-interconnection-carried-out-with-german-financial-aid/

All fits in to earlier discussions around Mozambique and the international state-building efforts the country has been the subject of.

Everything in the last two weeks, that coming out, is now pointing to a project/ process way more advanced than we know as holders/ market.

That interconnector line/ transmission work tells us more than is knowable on the surface. Knowledgeable folks here know what it all adds up to. As below:

-------------------

1. Government Tendering Docs for transmission infrastructure, near our project, just out.

2. NCCL Tranmission Study directly supported the above tendering process., where NCCL have said:

"#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid"

3. Where Hanno Pengilly had said in the most recent Proactive interview:

"[...] in addition [...] other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the study, have fallen away. So, it has all impacted how we integrate into the grid, and very, important that we work closely with EDM, to gain access to proprietary information that they have, to complete that study."

-------------------

Finally, just before the delay, we were meant to be getting news on our Historic Costs. Then we got the delay, and the SHA TS was shunted in front of Historic Costs.

Why?!

While those costs extremely are valuable for valuing NCCL, they not the bigest thing in the world. Nor do I believe more work is required on them.

This moving around of the sequence of events/ milestones isn't just chance.

Interested in thoughts.

Sells slowed, some buys coming back. Possibility we have another go at 5p...

Good luck folks!

NCCL transmission study supported this, with Germany, World Bank and Norway paid towards it and substation(s) in the area, the north-centre / Tete.

From another article (seperate to this):

"has guarantees of funding of 127 million US dollars from the World Bank, the Norwegian government, and German Cooperation (through the German Development Bank. KfW)."
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008030091.html

SHA TS becomes an even bigger deal for me, now. It brings commitment to the project finally out in the open!!

Another great piece of news, confirming what we believed our CEO had said:

"The Mozambique-Malawi interconnector attained financial closure and is at construction stage and is expected to be commissioned in 2022."

...in time for our project!

https://www.chronicle.co.zw/over-3-500mw-of-power-commissioned-as-sadc-energy-cooperation-pays-off/

Then in quick order, we hear about the Historic Costs owed to NCCL, which alone, we believe, exceeds present market cap.

Really looking good from here!

c.12p to 13p on Shareholder Agreement Term Sheet (SHA TS), imo.

SHA TS, according to our CEO, is likely to be our next piece of major news. Should be within this month.

Just this alone nails it:

"Maputo — Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi, on Friday, guaranteed that a further ten million Mozambicans (30 per cent of the population) will have access to electricity by the end of 2024."

All of it slotting together perfectly!

SHA TS news is now a BIGGY!!

https://allafrica.com/stories/202008170461.html

Mozambique: Ten Million More Mozambicans to Receive Power By 2024

Maputo — Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi, on Friday, guaranteed that a further ten million Mozambicans (30 per cent of the population) will have access to electricity by the end of 2024.

Giving a speech in the northern city of Pemba, capital of Cabo Delgado province, on the theme of "Energy, Mineral Resources and Hydrocarbon Projects", Nyusi said the government had set itself the target of making electricity available to 64 per cent of the population (twice the current level) by 2024. This is a step towards achieving universal access by 2030.
"I am pleased to say that the programme 'Energy for All' is advancing, and will allow us to ensure that during this government's term of office (2020-2024) more than ten million Mozambicans will have electricity for the first time", he said.
Since the government announced the "Energy for All" programme, over 250 million dollars have been mobilized from development partners for its implementation.

The pressing challenge, Nyusi added, is to electrify all the headquarters of administrative posts (the rung immediately below district in the country's local government structures). An exhaustive survey has been carried out of the 135 administrative post headquarters that are not yet on the national electricity grid.

"We now have complete information about the population to be reached, the power that needs to be installed, the distance from the grid, and the route of the transmission lines", said the President which would make it easier to plan the new connections.

He explained that 94 administrative post headquarters will be electrified by extending the national grid, and the other 41 will rely on power from autonomous generation relying on renewable sources, including small scale hydropower stations.
Nyusi mentioned the work under way on the new gas-fired power station at Temane, in the southern province of Inhambane, and the 57 kilometre transmission line that will carry the power from Temane to Maputo.

The Temane power station will produce 400 megawatts, which makes it the largest power station entirely built since Mozambican independence.

Nyusi said the Temane station will be complemented by a transmission line running 37 kilometres from Chimuara, on the north bank of the Zambezi, to Alto Molocue, in Upper Zambezia.

"The project will ensure an increase in the power from the Cahora Bassa sent to the north of the country, and an improvement in the quality of electricity supplied to Zambezia, Nampula, Niassa and Cabo Delgado as from late 2022", promised the President.

As for the projects for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Rovuma Basin, in Cabo Delgado, Nyusi said they will create at least 6,600 jobs for Mozambicans.

"The government will continue working so that Mozambicans are not mere spectators with regard to the job and business opportuniti

Thanks hugely badeli!!

Ramping?

Have a look at all the links and transcripts I'm using to support research and analysis.

As far as deramping goes, you would've got 'Could do better' in your school reports ;-)

This project has gone government-to-government, and is being supported by funding from massive institutions and state actors.

Deramping not going to work there!

Never been this confident before!

Keep up the great work Chris, here and on Twitter!