Member Info for CF73

Been a while since you posted here BUCHANON, good to have you back. Am confident that we are headed strongly in the right direction. Huge amount of news due, and is all in their hands - that is why Hanno is 'quietly' confident!

Some good discussion here.

For what little it's worth, am for now mainly interested in the derisking of the project as the means to increasing value for shareholders (i.e. a rising SP).

The recent delay will have created concerns. However, with and following NCCL transmission study news, we picked up a lot of other info, including from that Proactive interview with Hanno, and around the government initiated tendering processes underpinned by our work. Indeed, we learned about the connected substation, and the tendering process that has likely already started there too. The combination of all of these raised confidence levels enormously. Am extremely confident, as a result.

Is worth also adding that while we wait to achieve those upcoming milestones, the work for which has largely been done, the risk situation as being viewed by us is very different to what CMEC can see from where they are (given their obvious embedded involvement):

Why?

- The Ncondezi Power Project has gone Government-to-Government (Moz-to Beijing, where there was a signing ceremony for the binding JDA), and is now part of the China’s Belt and Road Initiative

- Tendering processes now being initiated (see recent NCCL Tweet), in readiness, with all other projects (i.e. Competition) having fallen away; and the infrastructure now gathering in the area our project will be.

- Every one of the biggest possible actors in this field are involved: from the Mozambican Government to the Chinese; from CMEC to GE; from AFC to Polenergia. As soon as SHA TS lands, we move absolutely to the next level.

I also think that NCCL have a more positively entangled relationship with CMEC than we realise.

Good luck all!

Those are good and very pertinent questions.

Regarding:

"...upfront outflows ie how the project (s)- mine and power plant - are (conceptually at least) going to be financed : capital structure, supplier credits , export credits etc. I can't readily see that on the website."

That is to be decided in greater detail/ more conlusively with the Shareholder Agreement Term Sheet (SHA TS), where the respective partners decide on their respective equity stakes. From the

Shareholders Agreement Term Sheet

The SHA term sheet provides the agreed framework for the full form Shareholders Agreement, including:

· Project equity participation [How much each Party take of the project]

· Investment conditions;

· Funding responsibilities of the parties pre and post financial close

· Governance structures; and

· Project management responsibilities.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/placing--subscriptions-and-development-update/202005151400050933N/

The SHA TS is, at minimum, a massive step as it confirm commitment to/ participation in project by our global partner(s). We already have a binding JDA in place. SHA TS moves us forward in more concrete terms, a huge positive for NCCL and LTHs, especially in current times. At a maximum, we could hear that CMEC (our partner could want more than the 60% minimum they have been set to take according to the binding JDA).

The SHA TS is the next BIG news itme, to be followed by our historic costs audit, where we learn about how much we are meant to be paid back for historic development costs (and than add the developers premium to this)>

Also, if CMEC take more than 60%, then each, say, 10%, will be worth significant amounts. Looking at the numbers above, we get a sense of the potential and size with the project.

The numbers:

Power Project cashflow $1.9b ovee 25years

Annual EBIDTA $175m

#NCCL get:

40% stake in Billion$$$ Power Project

Cashflows from NCCL 40% stake $799m

Historic Costs c$25m owed to NCCL (news due very soon)

Developer Fee c$50m owed to NCCL

Confirmation of equity stakes/ Global Partner Commitment, next BIG News, with binding JDA already in place! (Next BIG news!)

Market cap still only £16m

Massive upside. Correction to reflect proper value in progress and re-rate to commence thereafter.

NCCL coming to the attention of the market again, as we head into a news rich defining period!

As #NCCL moves through this news rich period, towards game-changing news, with remembering that a great deal of the NCCL stock is in good to very tight hands. By normal standards, the free float is very small:

Significant holders:

Africa Finance Corp: 15.72%
S. Fletcher: 15.08%
Polenergia: 8.32%
M. Haworth: 4.79%
Weatherheads: 4.06%

A total of c.48%

https://www.ncondezienergy.com/significant-shareholders/

Add 5%-10% just below list (people who might 2%, 3%, not appreaing on the list, perhaps very well connected, and even connected to the company).

So, if we include those, say 55% in very tight hands!

Then add c.20% for LTHs, folks Badeli, AlexE, GGG, ChrisHutch etc. People who I would class as LTHs and very good hands.

That's a confident overall total of 75%. Extremely unusual for an AIM share.

Add to this mix, those largish buys over the last couple of days, and we see a free float being chewed up before our eyes. On news, there will be an almighty scramble here.

NCCL should be grateful for that level of support and loyalty and I believe holders will be rewarded in due course/ very soon.

Good luck all!

Another great post badeli! Thanks for sharing!

An 825, 000 buy trade executed yesterday. Before that, there was 200, 000 buy at the end of one of the previous days, and 175, 000 buy trade. There is a acumulation going on, am guessing several largish buy orders. We've had some trickle of sells. Am guessing those have been from a comb of placing shares and folks who are selling a few to cover matters in these times.

With the free float in limited supply, those buy orders are going to make for a godo rise into and through game-changing news.

Good luck to all the holders!

Very good point, especially when we think that upwards of 75% of the stock is in tight to very tight hands. But we now approaching massive news.

Looking very good.

GDs general mucking about was always going to come back to bite them in the a ss. Reminds me of the saying, "Don't s h i t on your own doorstep." (Or something to that effect)...

Just remembered, forgot No.6

(6) We know Government initiated tendering processes have begun already, for both a power line and a substation, in the centre-north, i.e. Tete, where we are! NCCL themselves had said in that very recent tweet:

------------------------------

"Ncondezi Energy
@Ncondezi_Energy
·
Aug 7
#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid"

------------------------------

(1) Hanno says all the other projects ‘have fallen away’ – his exacts words! – and that it had an affects on how they would need to feed into the Grid, and of course it would; all the electricity is now coming from Ncondezi/ NCCL

(2) This is a binding JDA

(3) We will be getting the Shareholder Agreement Term Sheet (SHA TS) come through in next couple of week, my guess, which will confirm for now what % stake NCCL will hold in the project going forward

(4) These are the main holders, according to the website:

Africa Finance Corporation 54,988,520-- 15.72%
Scott Fletcher 52,717,038-- 15.08%
Polenergia International Societe A Responsabilite Limitee* 29,111,719-- 8.32%
Michael Haworth* 16,759,462 --4.79%
Mrs & Mr Weatherhead** 14,183,559 -- 4.06%

48%
https://www.ncondezienergy.com/significant-shareholders/

There are probably another 5 or 10% just below this list. So lets 55% in very tight hands.

And then there is, I would think another 25% in fairly tight hands, waiting for the main news.
(5) There is that new Ncondezi Green Energy Twitter thing going – can only be them. So, why now?!

Is someone coming into a wedge of money soon? ;-)

Should get even more people looking now!

----------------------------------------

Ncondezi

The project is in the heart of Tete, Mozambique’s most rapidly industrialising region and a hub for power generation.(1)

Total capital expenditure is expected to be US$1.1bn and once completed it will be one of the largest generation plants in the country.

In July 2019, a joint development agreement was signed with Chinese firm CMEC and US group General Electric.(2)

Ncondezi Energy (LON:NCCL) will look to retain a 40% equity stake in the project.(3)

On the share register are the African Finance Corporation, a specialist Africa infrastructure fund, and Polenergia that together hold approximately 30% of the company’s issued shares.(4)

Solar Power

Separately, Ncondezi has a joint venture deal with GridX Africa Development with a view to building captive solar and battery storage solutions for commercial and industrial use.(5)

GridX has 15 solar and battery storage projects, of which six are at an advanced stage.

[..]

"It's a fantastic step forward that we have submitted the final draft of the Transmission Integration Study to EDM for review,” said chief executive Hanno Pengilly in August.(6)

“Following the updated tariff proposal in March 2020 this report was required and has been updated with proprietary information from EDM.

“The results look encouraging and have identified a number of optimisations which have the potential to improve transmission line cost, strengthen the grid and facilitate future transmission expansion plans. Tariff negotiations are continuing in parallel and are progressing positively," he added.

'They' being CMEC, of course :-)

The Shareholder Agreement Term Sheet- where equity stakes in the project are confirmed - is next BIG news and, looking at what we seen so far, is massive!!

Question is, just how will want right now?

60% is minimum...but will they go in for more?? :-)

Loving it that it's our next piece of BIG news :-)

If Mozambique already initiated tendering for transmission lines & substations in our area (centre-north/ Tete)...

And, as our CEO says, 'all other projects have fallen away' (leaving just ours)...

Then Mozambique clearly expect our project to be happening...

Just saying :-))

Over on Twitter, Ben @Butterheart886, has reminded us:

-------------------------------------------

Also the developers premium that's being negotiated could be more than double the historical costs payment according to Canaccord.

Circa $65m could be put towards their share of the project.

And a tweak of the project % could easily see a free carry.

If #nccl get that far...

-------------------------------------------

Let's see what we hear with the SHA TS news, how much CMEC want :-)

Great posts from the regular long term holders here!

The potential is being realised and is enormous:

- Projected average annualized EBIDTA of US$175 million (nominal terms)

- Estimated net equity cash flows are expected to be in excess of US$1.9 billion (nominal terms) over the 25 year life of the Project

- Estimated Ncondezi 40% net equity cashflows of US$799 million (nominal terms) over life of Project

- And as Badeli has said brilliantly, SHA TS at advanced stage/ 'near final draft', confirming global partner commitment. We can imagine, there will be no surprises here. We will have confirmation of global partner commitment, just a question of 'How Much!'

- Historic Costs to be annouce shortly, $17m to $25m alone (and possibly more, in my view). Remembe when NCCL said the following:

"The approved historical costs will represent a clear crystallisation of value for Ncondezi shareholders. "

---- well, they know wha the figures will be and what it means to us, and it's finally coming.

The value will out here and very shortly. People have the opportunity to buy while this is still so undervalued.

Good luck to all holding!!

Transmission line and substation news is massive, also, establishing infrastructure in and around our project, and even as a result of our work, showing how we will be feeding into the grid/ network.

That along with Hanno saying that all the other comparable projects have 'fallen away' means that our project is now increasingly guaranteed to happen, confirmed, again, by tendering processes for transmission lines (emerging out of our study) and susbequent tendering processes around the substation, linked to the line, all in the centre-north, which is Tete, where we are/ Ncondezi is, where we are the only project...as a few have said, things are moving ahead!

Edging nearer to news.

- SHA TS next BIG news: where they "near final draft": is "next major news item"

- Where they "quite a far way down the Historical Costs development cost audit"

IMO Given Hanno gave away the reason for the delay (being that new guy at EDM), personally, do believe we are very considerably down the road of these two pieces of news, with Hanno saying the next piece of news is very likely to be SHA TS. This is massive, as we get confirmation of the equity stakes - how much of the project they each want - at this stage. Massive committment to project.

Then we have Historic costs, allowing us to better value the company, at last.

Good luck all!

Some accumulation going on (sort of) under the radar (I say, 'sort of' under the radar', as it's designed to happen while still pegging the SP around these levels - and am sure people can still see it)...

Good luck folks!!

So, a '...400 kV electricity transmission line linking Mozambique and Malawi. [...] Joao Catine, the official of the Mozambican publicly owned electricity company, EDM, responsible for the transmission line project, said that another international public tender will be launched “within days” to choose a contractor to build a brand new electricity sub-station to raise the voltage in the centre-north power system to 400 kV.'

This is all in 'the centre-north', being Tete, where we are located; this is in the context of a situation where all the other possible large projects, potentially comparable to and in competition with, Ncondezi, have - to use Hanno's words - 'fallen away' i.e. infrastructure is being built with and around us, with no-one else in sight.

We are now the only game in town; and things are now moving very much in our favour.