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Theprodigy, regarding your post at 08.46, agreed!.

Given that GE and CMEC will be leading on debt financing, only to use much if it buy their own tech, infrastructure and services, and given the coal supply is assured at cost price throughout, and that we're talking about GE and CMEC, I think the use of a 12% discount rate is a bit punitive myself.

Typos in the first (and with further additions): ----------------------- The integrated nature of the project means there are margins available to the operators/owners that would be out of reach if the two were completely separate entities and, especially, some distance apart (as coal supply to coal fired power plant).

The integrated nature of the project means there are margins available to the operators/owners that just would out of reach of the two were completely separate entities and, especially, sine distance apart. The coal is available to the plant at literally cost price to produce, with no transport involved and no profit-based mark up, since the profits will be considered as a concern for the overall project and not to the coal mine and power plant as separate distinct entities. Those margins are available to the project throughout its lifetime and would have a significant affect on the NPV. Don't think we've grasped this in discussions about NPV. Worth remembering Hanno's comments about revenue - projected to be $250million to $300million annually (imagining that over 25years!); and from recent FM RNS, taxes and royalties over the lifetime of the project in the order of $1.1billion to $1.4billion. That's even with our VAT exemption status. It signals a significant NPV. In my view, a sale price of USD $$hundreds of millions - if a sale were to happen - would leave GE and CMEC able to recoup that through sales of their tech and infrastructure (remembering that the debt for this will be used to buy GE and CMEC tech and services) and ongoing operations and still be left with huge profits. Even without a sale, we will get indication of this potential through the binding JDA in July. As one of our trusted posters has often alluded, this will be a cashcow. As others have said, at the lower negative end, you will likely get 4 bags from here. At the higher optimistic end, you will get 10 bags from here. Most are confident that thus will happen, with confirmation in less than perhaps 7 weeks to binding JDA and with tariff news in between (tariff acceptance nails it for many). So the question is, do you feel lucky punk? Well, do you?! DYOR!

If Carlsberg could do posts.

*So we're probably going to see an SP rerate if tariff news is positive

...before then, we have tariff submission (aby day now) and news (by early July?). We know also that EDM have approached the government in regards to future tariffs (this was as recent as last month). My guess is that EDM will give their in-principle support to NCCL's tariff (they've been in ongoing discussion, including the Jan 2018 approach NCCL made to EDM, so our tariff hasn't been conjured out of a vacuum). As others have also said, tariff approval effectively seals the binding JDA. So we'll probably going to see an SP rerate is tariff news is positive

...will sort the SP... ...and we get those end if July...

Some great detail to the Lamu deal and project in this article, including around efficiencies and optimisation. Gives a sense of how out tariff is reached and what would be involved at Ncondezi: http://www.africanreview.com/energy-a-power/power-generation/kenya-s-amu-power-signs-new-power-agreement-with-ge

Me too splatted :-)

Lurker, I'm presenting my own interpretation of the situation. My views may ultimately turn out to be incorrect but I don't come to those views without being researched. I've done enough research here to enable me to have a justified and 'reasonably' informed opinion. You could imagine if someone invested on the Lamu plant ahead if GE''s entry had said they would pay $400million for a 20% stake. . In the end, I was asked by sellonnews for my views. I gave them. My views aren't investment advice. Though I've posted plenty of research and what i believe to be informed analysis. It's for folks to do their own research and come to their own conclusions. DYOR! !

Sellonnews, quite a number of us have felt a sale made most sense for all parties and for the sorts of reasons you describe. There are others like Laxey and Dandy who are especially aware of the period where we were working with SEP, who will have excellent insights and from who I'd like to hear thoughts on buyout possibilities. On the amount if a buyout, I don't think USD$400million unreasonable. Going by the Lamu deal, came up with £1.52 per share. Which would take it to USD $600million (converting from SP to sale in USD $$). For the moment, just going to say 50p absolute bottom end in the case of JDA and 75p my estimate. May be well off the mark but that's current position. Interested in what the other regulars - Laxey, Dandy, Stevenc72, splatted, brybags, TTP, BUCHANON, Aesty etc. - on this BB think??

sellonnews, looking at how GE and CMEC have moved through this JDA process, can only believe they are chasing to scale up. The demand is there for whatever the plant can produce, domestically, where only 28% of Mozambque's population are connected to the grid/in receipt of reasonable levels of power; and within the wider Southern African Development Community area/region, where there is significant export potential. I think a few of us believe they will be going after the full 1800MW - I'm sure we're all certain GE-CMEC not in this to settle for 300MW. What it will cost to go to 1800MW won't be a issue for GE-CMEC.

Excellent stuff me ol mucker Laxey!! As always! One minor - believe it or not, when converted, the 40billion Kenyan shillings GE paid for 20% equates to approx $395million. And I'm with you about Lamu begging us to make the comparison. Good luck to genuine folks!

So far more bought than sold today, including whatever traded through NEX.

Some of the PR around NCCL has been charts led - see Box Nic podcasts and with a lot of Twitter folk. Not enough wider discussion around the fundamentals, which would've presented a clear near to medium term investment case (and to be honest long term too) for NCCL. So many folk are only just getting their heads NCCL. Hanno's recent podcasts have been brilliant. If folk want further confidence, they should look into who our shareholders are (Africa Finance Corporation 20.5%; another fund headed by one of our directors l own 11%; our chairman holds 6%). This shows two things; a) significant alignment of board and shareholders; and b) that there is some clout behind NCCL.

If a buyout, then minimum £150million. But think - really do believe - if a buyout, could be north of that. 75p per share, £200million+ End of July us key as that's when the binding JDA is confirmed. That will include percentage ownership over the project and what money we get in return. Also wonder that if a TO is going to happen, if that's when we hear. Would make sense as that would help to progress such plans faster rather than move forward on the basis of a JV when they ultimately want a TO (if a TO is what they ultimately want). And at the pace things are moving, I think a good chance we could know at that point. But whatever way, we will hear about the numbers at Binding JDA confirmation stage, end of July, and that will catapult the SP for good. Before then, though, as Laxey and others point out, annual results due and tariff news. And I like particularly, Hanno's stating milestones for June and July, and how these will unlock shareholder value. He can only say that if he knows the numbers, meaning that he knows that they're good enough to guarantee to shift the SP significantly.

Aesty's point is also crucial. GE and CMEC have worked together plenty. Looking at CMEC websites and PR literature and comms, GE get a massively prominent mention. Their partnership is tried and tested.

Mike, thanks for comments. GE and CMEC will be leading on the financing of this $$$billion dollar project. Amongst many LTHs and medium term holders like me, there's a shared view that GE and CMEC will want to own more. Think about it, at a combined 60%, it gives GE an CMEC 30%, leaving NCCL as the largest partner, though the others are effectively finding all the money. At a combined 80%, that's 40% for GE and CMEC and 20%.to NCCL. Makes more sense. But once you start dropping to 20% or 15%, why keep NCCL at all? The other thing, leaving NCCL involved, whether at 40%, 20% or 15% etc. doesn't mitigate any risk that juggernauts like GE and CMEC couldn't deal with themselves. GE and CMECb would be - if they owned the integrated project - sharing the project between, including sharing the risk. There's nothing NCCL could offer by way of risk mitigation that I can think of, given their minnow (our) status. Not saying a TO is definitely going to happen, but it's something I take as a serious possibility. DYOR as always

Not sure of existing examples but what GE and CMEC are proposing for with Ncondezi is unique for them already. They are, at minimum, going to be the largest partners/holders, making it distinct from Lamu. At Lamu, they've got a 20% stake (which they paid $400million). At Ncondezi, they're in early enough now to steer the project (shown in project switching tech after GE and CMEC came on board). Believe that GE would be interested in operating the mine and plant as there are ongoing revenues that, particularly, GE needs (following some difficult years). The short if it is: Even at combined minimum of 60% GE and CMEC are in new territory as far as integrated coal and power plant projects are concerned (even taking KIBO and the Thar projects into account - and Lamu is just a power plant, no coal mine attached). Not having done a prior project of this kind, to completion, hasn't precluded their deep interest and progress. So a buyout or Takeover is on in my book. Whatever we get, JDA confirmation in July will blow folks away.