RE: Loving this second bite31 Jul 2018 14:44
Splatted, you and I may be on the same page.
Having thought through about the Project Update RNS (26 July 2018), felt that it wasn't just an ordinary delay. Like you, have noted that the August Workshop included PPA and FC discussions, informing us that a more definitive time line would emerge out of those discussions;
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"Updated timetable for key milestones including the power tariff sign off, Power Purchase Agreement ("PPA") negotiations, Financial Close ("FC") and the date of first power on the grid expected to be agreed during the Workshop."
https://investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/project-update/201807260700087964V/
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So doesn’t feel like a standard delay. Feels like significant progress. They've just held back notification of tariff and then moved time line of JDA, in my opinion.
I base that not just on the RNS but the subsequent podcast. Thanks to those who drew to our attention that Hanno seemed to let slip that the tariff had been approved. I took a closer listen and provided a transcript of the relevant parts and posted to LSE.
Listen to the podcast from 20:25
"...the key thing is that the proposal hasn't been rejected. Quite the opposite. We've been asked to move on to the next level, with more detailed discussion on that."
And;
"...our updated proposal has been accepted..."
Then corrected very quickly to,
"...or it hasn't been signed off yet but certainly the doors have been opened to get to the next phase."
From this, I can only infer that the tariff has been approved but all parties have decided to move on without notifying us (they never said they would). If they had notified us, then can imagine that the SP would have been double this. Perhaps not an issue working towards a JDA but certainly would’ve been if there is a target price for a buyout.
Taking everything into account, I can only conclude the following;
1. At a minimum, the August Workshop is fast-tracking the entire process. Folks might remember that last year, under the Non-Binding Offer, Financial Close (‘FC’) was intended for Quarter 4, 2018. It was then rescheduled for 12-18months post-Binding JDA. Is this a signal that the earlier timetable is now back on? [I feel personally confident, as I’m sure others do, that GE want to move this on ASAP and that an FC 12 months from now, let alone 18months, is not necessary or desired]
2. At a maximum, with tariff in the bag (even if we haven’t been notified), parties have then moved to discussions that could lead to a possible buyout of the project. If GE and CMEC did want to buy out the project, then no point to the JDA. You move to next phase.