RE: Future bright10 Aug 2018 23:21
Had a go listening to and transcribing Hanno’s podcast.
For the moment, I’m picking this part out;
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“At the moment, things are progressing as planned. We have meetings planned in the month of August. I think it’s just a case of getting all the teams together [10:00]. The materials are all prepared. And I think August is going to be a busy month for us, working with the government of Mozambique as well as the state-owned EDM to finalise the process to move forward. All looking good at this stage. I guess all I can say, is that we will update the market at the right time, when we have the information we need to provide. But all progressing well at this stage.”
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I believe that by now ‘the Workshop’ has happened. They said at 26th July update, “Further updates will be provided after the Workshop has been concluded.” In the today’s update, they have said “We have meetings planned in the month of August.” These could be/are likely subsequent meetings. I don’t think today’s RNS or Podcast would have contained mention of ‘the Workshop’ having been done (if it had been), as otherwise you could imagine everyone wanting to know what came out of it (and clearly they’re not ready to say anything). I don’t think a process as serious as this one, involving NCCL, GE and CMEC (no less), and the Mozambican government and one of its leading utilities, would be working towards an ‘early August’ workshop, where there hadn’t been actual date fixed and in everyone’s diaries. I mean you don’t leave till last minute, suddenly pull out a date of the hat and expect folks to be attending with their best and most senior figures. But I accept the Workshop could lead to other meetings and processes.
Also, worth noting Hanno saying, “…number of processes going in parallel. One of those processes was the shareholder loan.” In other words, the loan restructuring is a parallel process to JDA. It is not, technically, part of the sequence to JDA; as part of, for example, GE and CMEC’s due diligence. In other words, the JDA is not subject to it (even if restructuring the loan, especially by the terms described, is clearly beneficial for NCCL and puts us in a stronger negotiating position).
We could well hear about binding JDA before the loan issue is settled. If we look to the Options RNS, and to the sequence of Options, the restructuring of the loan came after Binding JDA, meaning that this was the expectation at the time. So the idea we could still hear about binding JDA soon, while the loan is being restructured, is not crazy or unusual. It was what NCCL were expecting in the first place.
That said, the loan restructuring terms, as described today (extension of 12months at 12%, down from 25%; or conversion to equity at 10p), is excellent. Representatives of 60% of the loan have agreed and can see AFC agreeing too (NCCL’s Hanno saying, ‘…confident that we will get that across the line.’).
FWIW, good l