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Bonterra Energy Corp
12,542 boe/d (upto ~14k in December)
62.79% Oils
$28.7M FF 3 months to Sept
$68.4M FF first 9 months
$90M FFF 2022 guidance assuming wti of $70.
Net debt $307.7M
Market Cap: $198M
Expecting to allocate 75% of capital to drilling and completing new wells in 2022.
Advantage Energy Ltd - (Montney)
50,025 boe/d (4,724 bbls/d - liquids) - 9.44%
Q3 FCF - $32M
Q2 FCF - $23.8M
Q1 FCF - $16.8M
$167.9M net debt
Market Cap $1.41B
May pay dividend next year
Gear Energy Ltd (some assets also in Saskatchewan)
November update - 6,229 boe/d
Q3 - total 5859boe/d - 5,157 bbls liquids (88%)
Fund from operations Q3 - $16M
$19.2M net debt
Market Cap $235M
Net debt forecasted to be zero in Q2 2022
Share buybacks and dividends anticipated in 2022
Headwater Exploration Inc
7,688 boe/d - 99% oils
AFF Q3 - $31.5M
AFF first 9 months - $69.18M
As of 30 September outstanding debt
Market Cap $1.04B
Wanna increase annual average production to 12,500 boe/d and q4 2022 production to 15,000 boe/d
Eric Nuttels 2nd top pick
Alright G_G_G and tonynorstrom1 let's try to resolve all of this today.
Some companies don't report Free Cash Flow, they report Adjusted Funds Flow. Do we agree that we can use that measure in lieu of FCF as appropriate. I've included NGLs in 'Oils'.
This is what I've got so far:
Cardinal Energy Ltd
87% 'Oils'
Q3 FCF - $21M
Used FCF in previous quarters to pay down debt and acquired the private company Venturion Oil Limited for $47.5M, adding 2,400 bbl/d (~84% Oil)
$217M net debt
Market Cap $646M
Crew Energy Inc
Oils - 24.23%
Q3 AFF - $26.5M
$86M - AFF for the first 9 months
$120-140M 2021 AFF guidance
2022 Free AFF guidance - $95-140M in excess of maintenance capital
~42% of 2022 gas production hedged at $3.26/mcf
$404.1M net debt
Market Cap $447M
Makes for a good comparison with I3E due to the Oil and Gas production ratios.
Kelt Exploration
Q3 AFF - $36.3M
9 months AFF - $93.2M
Oils - 38.16% (incl ~15% NGL)
$28.1M net debt
Market cap $911M
Will be debt free in 2022
Obsidian Energy Ltd
62.96% Oils
2021 FCF guidance $72 β 77M
$428.1M net debt
Market Cap $389.9M
Pine Cliff Energy Ltd
Oils - 8.56%
$13.3 m - 3 months AFF
$32.8 m - 9 months AFF
$41.4M net debt
Market Cap $230.8M
December 2021 - closed the acquisition of a 'private company' for $22.2M. Adds ~1900boe/d (~23% crude Oil)
May repay debt early and become debt free in 2022 and may pay dividends and do share repurchases.
Pipestone Energy Corp
44.69% Oils
$43.69M - 3 month AFF
$107.43M - 9 month AFF
$219M net debt
Market Cap $743.8M
Storm Resources Ltd.
3 months Funds Flow - $33.3M
9 months FF - $97.8M
Forcasted annual FF $148-156M
Oils - 18.52%
$104M debt
Market cap $767M
CNRL completed it's acquisition of Storm in December 2021. Cash deal, all 122,537,945 Storm shares brought for $6.28 per share by CNRL. Offer only at 10% premium to the 10 day weighted moving average.
It's interesting to note that CNRL also own 8 oil fields in the UK section of the North Sea. Current production 16,294 bbls/d.
I3E with its assets in Canada and the UK with its market cap could be quite attractive to CNRL.
Surge Energy Inc
Oil- 84.11%
$28.8M AFF 3 months
$57.1M AFF 9 months
$319.7M net debt
Market Cap $367M
I'll see if I can dig up other Oilers that produce ~4500bbls/d of oil
Incidently I3 Energy and Cardinal Energy jointly acquired some land in Wapiti Elmworth in which they are drilling partners (two wells in total - one net each). Their oil weighted wells are exceeding expectations.
See the 19 May 2021 Land Sales Results from the PNG Tenure Public Offerings and Results page
https://content.energy.alberta.ca/Tenure/1314.asp
From the 29 July RNS:
Well 09-17-071-10W6 in i3's Elmworth Wapiti acreage was spud on 27 July 2021. The Company will be drilling two wells with a partner at a net cost of USD 2.1mm. Operations are planned to conclude in early Q3 2021. These oil-weighted wells are expected to initially increase i3's production by approximately 175 boe/d and are estimated to return the full investment in 1.3 years based on current commodity strip pricing.
From the 09 September RNS:
The second well in this drilling programme, 08-17-71-10W6, was spud on 9 Aug 2021. The well reached a total measured depth of 3,346m, at a maximum true vertical depth of 1,341m which included a 1,776m horizontal section in the targeted Dunvegan formation. The horizontal leg contacted excellent reservoir, ranging from 10-15% porosity with strong gas shows and oil staining. The well was drilled on time and on budget, and the rig was released on 21 August 2021. Stimulation, completion and production tie-in operations will shortly commence on both this well and well 09-17-071-10W6 (the first well drilled in this programme). These oil-weighted wells are expected to initially increase i3's production by approximately 175 boepd and are estimated to return the full investment in 1.3 years based on current commodity strip pricing.Β
From the 26 October RNS:
Two horizontal wells targeting the Dunvegan formation in i3's Elmworth Wapiti acreage were drilled, completed and tied in during August and September. i3 has a 50% working interest in these wells. Both wells encountered excellent reservoir quality and were drilled and completed on time and budget. The first well 09-17-071-10W6 was on-stream on 27 September 2021 and the second well 08-17-071-10W6 commenced production on 30 September 2021. Average production from the two wells since clean-up and over the 14-day period between 7 October 2021 and 20 October 2021 was approximately 190 boepd, which exceeded pre-drill expectations of circa 175 boepd.
///Cenkman, I think Tony has pointed out previously it depends on the oil / gas ratio so using boepd isn't the best comparative measure to use.
Thank you for showing me some appreciation some research that I voluntarily shared. Ohh right, becoz tony said so. Riiight.
///Imo it's better to use fcf multiples, and then look at net debt plus incremental growth opportunities in portfolios as a means of comparing whether a company should be valued at a premium (or not) against the sector fcf average.
Okay so how about you go and do your own flipping research and then come back to us with your findings.
///The last element - incremental growth - is why I keep saying the f/o is key to unlocking a significant sp re-rate. Proving up +100m recoverable Brent combined with the short time frame to monetise the resource should value i3e at a premium to peers on comparable fcf multiples, rather than the current undervaluation that exists. It would greatly increase our oil reserves (and near term production), plus diversify to Nth Sea (Brent).
Well, I would have thought that even a myopic troglodyte would have worked out that a North Sea farmout would be a trigger for share price appreciation.
How about we could x3-4 in price based on the wall of cash coming from our Canadian assets on their own.
///When combined with our low net debt, solid fcf, and sector leading dividend, we should valued at a significant premium versus peers. We just need the spark to draw investor attention to all the other elements, which imo is the f/o (Graham apparently shares this pov).
I think you will find plenty of other Alberta oil and gas companies are returning more to their share holders.
For example ARC Resources Ltd will return 50-80% free funds flow to shareholders (quarterly dividends and share buyback).
///It's why I'm saying secure the debt facility and go it alone in the Nth Sea if necessary. Our partners I'd imagine will pull their fingers out once given an ultimatum of losing the opportunity altogether. And if not, who cares, we'll have more value attributed to us once the assets have been appraised.
Well better hope it's not a duster like in 2018 - remember I3Es share price is down ~88E, I mean 88% from 07 September 2018.
Yeah, I've had a look at every other publically listed Canadian Oil and Gas company that operates in Alberta or has a substantial amount of their assets in Canada.
The only logical conclusion that anyone can come to is basically the buying I3E at this price is crazy cheap. There are a few other companies that are quite cheap and have low or manageable debt that will be paid off in a year or two.
Here's a few relevant ones to check out:
I3E market cap ~C$258M
Cardinal Energy Ltd. (Mostly in Alberta, some in Saskatchewan)
19,473 boe/d
C$217M net debt
Market Cap C$646M
Crew Energy Inc (assets spread across British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan)
23,659 boe/d
C$404.1M net debt
Market Cap C$447M
Kelt Exploration Ltd.
19,621 boe/d
C$28.1M net debt
Market cap C$911M
Net debt expect to be between C$7.6M-17.6M by 31 December)
Obsidian Energy Ltd
24,164boe/d
C$428.1M net debt
Market Cap C$389.9M
Recently acquired Peace River Oil Partnership
Pine Cliff Energy Ltd.
18,316 boe/d
C$41.4M net debt
Market Cap C$230.8M
Pipestone Energy Corp.
24,704 boe/d
C$219M net debt
Market Cap C$743.8M
Storm Resources Ltd.
27,499 boe/d
C$104M debt
Market cap C$767M
Taken over by Canada Natural Resources Limited
Surge Energy Inc
17,642 boe/d
21,500 boe/d 2021 exit production
C$319.7M net debt
Market Cap C$367M
88e and i3e are 2 very different companies. I3e may very well be a better investment proposion over the next few years. However as of now they have not been.
At the end of the day we're all here to make money, and purely looking at share price appreciation investors/traders have made more money with 88e over the past few years.
88e' share price up more than i3e' over the past 12 months, 3 years and 5 years timeline.
https://newenergyjob.com/job/junior-engineering-technologist/
Growth oriented i3 Energy Canada Ltd. is seeking a dynamic and energetic individual to fulfill the responsibilities of Junior Engineering Technologist reporting to the COO.
Primary responsibilities include but are not limited to:
Forecasting β updating valnav forecast monthly on production variance β Shrinks/Yields
Expiries β reviewing for continuation possibilities and goal
Surrender β reviewing for reserves/ upside / recommendation
Abandonment reviews β evaluating engineering perspective.
Smaller IONβs if required
Reserves β during reserves season helping with comparisons on changes
Updating spreadsheet tools with lease ops or data mining (frac/shut-in)
Waterflood graphing β VRR
Master well/pipeline/facility list updating
Working interest reviews (budget database)
Non-op field estimates
Field opex vs budget review
Workover lookbacks
Additional large project support
Capture drilling and completion AFE estimates from vendors for new drills/ locations we want to bring in and later organising drilling and completion timing for execution (Drill Schedule management)
Regulatory submission to the AER for holding applications, O-38, pressure submissions (and the equivalent to BCOGC).
Well histories
Shut in well reviews
Well Status Changes
Sometime over the next 4 months - Q1 2022 (worse case scenario would multiple reporting periods).
All I3e said about the farmout in the Oct rns is that they expect the counterparties (plural) to confirm their funding commitments by the end of the year. If the companies expectations are met and all the counterparties do confirm their funding obligations, then completing all the paperwork would happen sometime in Q1 2022 I would have thought. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
About the capital deployment and drilling program in the Oct rns I3e did state:
"Guidance on the programme, budget, and expected impact on production and cashflow forecasts will be provided later in the year."
So yeah in this instance they have made a promise to the market. Let's hope they can keep to their word. Perhaps the market is anticipating that i3e do fail to keep to their own word. Not counting today there are only like 9 more full trading days and 2 half days remaining till the new year. Having read through a bunch of rns' again, I have a moderate amount of confidence that i3e will keep to their word. Then again I would not be entirely shocked if the rns did drop in early January.
I do think Q1 2022 will have some great updates incoming. Although a Christmas and/or New Years presents would be most welcome.
List taken from the top 50 undervalued stocks found on money.tmx.com, I stopped at I3E.
Rank Company Name P/E Ratio
3 Rubellite Energy Inc. 0.20
4 Perpetual Energy Inc. 0.40
6 Forza Petroleum Limited 0.40
10 Surge Energy Inc. 0.60
14 Journey Energy Inc. 0.70
16 Obsidian Energy Ltd. 0.90
21 Hanwei Energy Services Corp. 1.0
22 Southern Energy Corp. 1.10 (operates in the USA)
27 Bonterra Energy Corp. 1.20
28 I3 Energy plc 1.20
I got in at 10p awhile back then it dropped to like 7p. As some have mentioned we gotta wait till they churn through a bunch of shares ~300M out of 400M have been churned through and in the last 3 weeks the volume has been like ~10M per week. If it continues at this rate its gonna take another 10 weeks or so (sometime in February when you factor in public holidays) for the shares to be churned through.
Nope. They are free to reinvest their dividends or purchase more shares at anytime. Evidently they've all chosen not to do so. I followed their example and did not reinvest my dividend in I3E.
To be fair Linda Beal excised her options at 5p per share for 400,000 shares (so she spent Β£20k of her own money) back in October when the share price was around 12p or so per share (so she got ~60% discount on them).
@ tony
I think Joesoap (who I didn't thank about his research into Perpetual/ Rubilite being the farm in partner of I3E - not sure how he worked it out as I can't find nothing on the web about it) was just saying that according to that pumpedordumped .com website that you are named as number 2 and Ggg is the number one pumper of this stock on the Internet.
http://******************/rampchecker/rampcheckbytidm.php?search=I3e
In the thread you posted on 28 Oct 2021 09:37 entitled skin in the game. You need not feel touched. Apparently it's normal for investors to scrutinise the actions and behaviour of the management of publically listed companies that have market caps of Β£100M+. In your numerous threads about I3e and peers returns its a shame that we haven't yet found an acceptable peer according to your very high standards of what an acceptable peer is even if they operate in the exact same area and don't have vastly different production profiles.
@ bots - nothing will happen until the 363,700,000 additional shares plus the 35,001,226 options that the management and directors have redeemed since 27 July are churned through.
Only 273,255,242 (68.53%) churned through on AIM. And only a pathetic 28,708,357 (7.2%) on the TSXV.
Tony, I thought you were looking for peers to compare I3E with? So I found that company that was maybe an acceptable peer.
Correction - Montney is an area within Pipestone.
GGG - I think they have like C$200 million debt (mostly bank debt).
Condensate 7345 bbls/d
NGL 3211 bbls/d
Crude Oil 83 bbls/d
Natural Gas 76180 Mcf/d