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Yeah it's possible, I'm no expert but it looks like we are still in a down trend.
The problem is the London stock exchange is just pathetic in comparison to American exchanges. The FTSE 100 was at over 6930 back on 30 December 1999 and now its just at 7554. In comparison the Nasdaq was at 4069 on 31 December 1999 and is now at 14403.
Seems like the market doesn't like to give us fair value when things are going good but likes to punish us severely when things aren't going so well.
This share price is ridiculous. Nearly 40% down from what it was last June. Our Property, plant & equipment is apparently worth more the current market cap. Institutions potentially still want to offload 100Ms of shares which seems to drop our market cap by £10Ms.
I agree with JoeSoap.
This company missing their own deadlines is in essence a hallmark of their modus operandi. This is something I first noticed when I invested the best part of 2 years ago. How are the planets largest publically listed oil company's such as BP and Shell who are vertically integrated and operate in a substantial number of different jurisdictions able to release quarterly reports very promptly but these sausages can't even report what they said would by when they said they would.
Is it not a very bad thing to miss your own deadline for no particular reason? I would have expected a publically listed company with a value of over £200M, listed in more than one first world jurisdiction to meet the deadline that it set for itself.
If I recall correctly ~9% of our float is on the Canadian exchange and if/when that becomes 10% then a more indepth quarterly report will be required for the Canadian exchange. What's gonna happen if we fail to meet regulatory deadlines? A halt in trading on the TSXV? That will go down like a tonne of bricks
Remember that Warren Buffet saying, "be greedy when others are fearful" - that most definitely applies here.
Don't forget what you own. We have a company that for 2022 has projected NOI of $170M (~£142M) and a market cap of only £261M. NOI to market cap ratio is less than 2 - it is like 1.82.
Remember this time last year the share price drifted from 13p to 10p and some of us couldn't quite believe it.
It's shame not many people know about us. On Reddit we only have 119 follows vs 88E who 11.7k followers.
On Stocktwits we only have 112 followers vs 88E who have 22,256 followers.
I'm just patiently holding. Last year the share price went from like 16p to 10.30p - so like a 35% drop. I wonder if the share price could go as low as 20.80p at some point. Remember the share price was like 10.30p in December then rose over the next 4-5 months to 30p. Wonder if it will do something like that again.
Anyways it seems like we started getting the monthly dividend we haven't had regular operational updates.
All in all I'm not too worried with I3E. Frustrated with the recent share price movement yes but not worried that we're about to drop off a cliff or anything like that.
Last year we went from like 10p to 7p so a 30% drop then went from 16p to reaching as low as 10p. A 30-35% drop from our high of 32p would be about 22-20p. It's possible that we drop further. By most peoples calculations we are undervalued and we are bound to go back up to new multi year highs.
I suspect he got the information from the Alberta Energy Regulator site: aer.ca some things are updated daily there.
The 24 Feb rns mentions that the well beginning with 103/14 was spud on 10 January. Checking the aer I can see the following:
03/14-24-042-05W5/0 I3 ENERGY HZ 103 PEMBINA 14-24-42-5 0502484 0Z41 Ensign Drilling Inc. 434 10 Jan 2022 03:45:00 AM Red Deer A8HW I3 Energy Canada Ltd. Drill To LD
https://static.aer.ca/prd/data/wells/SPUD0110.txt
There's a lot of information that can be obtained from the aer. I was just reading about I3Es gas plants:
https://static.aer.ca/prd/documents/sts/st13/st13b_2022_detail.pdf
Yeah if you're selling now you might as well fold pocket rockets preflop or fold on the flop when you're one card away from hitting a straight flush.
December - 10p
Febraury - 20p
April - 30p
Dare I say 40p in May/June and 50p in September?
Thanks all, nah I'm definately not selling any of my shares any time soon.
Joseph Schachter reckons were are in the midst of a 4-5 year commodities super cycle - he reckons his top picks to at least X3 over the next few years.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/josef-schachter-s-top-picks-april-20-2022-1.1754535
So does he actually recommend buying I3E or not?
I noticed that there was a fool.co.uk article ( https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/04/06/the-i3e-share-price-is-surging-should-i-buy-now/ ) recently where the author says the share price has been impressive in 2022, that the company has been impressive but concludes he is "not convinced the I3E share price can maintain its current momentum."
"That’s why I’m keeping this stock on my watchlist for now."
So he would rather just watch from the sidelines as things continue to unfold. I really don't get some people.
I must admit that I've been guilty for being impatient - share price movement felt frustrating at times last year. Now the situation has changed I'm pondering wherever or not I should take a bit off the table purely because I3E now makes up a disproportionately high amount of my portfolio due to its share price appreciation.
The thing is can I find another company that can replicate I3Es success and should I as nothing has changed with the fundamentals that would lead me to want to divest my holdings here. If anything things are only going from strength to strength here.
With I3E there is substantial growth to come. Full year 2021 NOI was something like ~$66M (maybe less because of currency fluctuations). However $31.5M of that came from Q4, where the realised average oil price was just $69.81 and gas was $3.72.
Their latest forecasted NOI for 2022 is $192M (so nearly 200% higher than their 2021 NOI.
Average production in 2021 was 12,442 boepd. This year the average production is going to at the very least 60% higher than that. I suspect the modest increase in production stated in the capital budget will be blown out of the water by year end. More to come with respect to giving back to shareholders and of course the North Sea drill.
I'm glad that they've released the final year results and the end of year reserves report in April as opposed to last year when they released them in June. Looks like they're being really proactive this year. Here's to another transformational year with lots of news flow to come (and we are still undervalued).
Thank you for your insight Joe.
I3E promised that they were going to release their maiden sustainability report as part of their ESG commitments in Q1 of 2022. Looks like they're going to miss their own deadline unless we get an rns by close of play. Although it's not the first time they've missed their own deadlines. They promised that they would release the Q1 2021 results by the 2nd half of April last year and eventually released it on 05 May - after certain directors and employees were able to excise their options.
I dont see why I3E needs to wait till the beginning of June like last year to release the end of year reserves report.
I guess the takeaway from what I was trying to say was that I think the future is bright. Very long away from anything near that kind of production being realised - possibly decades?
Management have done well in my opinion and understandably are playing things cautiously, but I am hopeful the capital budget will be vastly expanded. I hope they vastly increase the amount of drills this year.
They have already mentioned share buybacks in the capital budget rns back in December and again in the recent vox interview so I am sure it's something that they will start to do sometime this year. Theres potential for dividend upgrades later on in the year and special dividends on top.
I have previously looked into Kelt. They proved up over 1 billion boe, developed production to around 15k boepd and sold it to ConocoPhillips back in 2020 when oil prices were low for nearly $400M cash. If I recall correctly they may have sold more than half their entire production at the time. Their capital budget last year was 4 times what our initial capital budget is this year. They are aggressively proving up their acreage and bringing production online.
I3E claimed that their Clearwater acreage supports STOIIP 1.1 billion bbls in the March 2020 presentation. I think its time they started proving it up and developing it. We need multiple successes and a large amount of investment in the North Sea to realise 30k boepd.
@ highlandmatt - I'm not sure how you are valuing TXP. It seems to me that you are perhaps factoring in potential future production and income that may or may not ever be realised.
Operating Netback (revenue minus expenses) last year was $13.03M or ~£9.9M. With a shareprice of 85p TXP appears to be trading at ~18 times this figure. Canadian oil companies typically trade at 4 to 7 times cash flow. Based on that I reckon TXP should be trading at ~18.75p to 32.8p per share.