The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Pipestone Energy Corp.
Operates in the Pipestone and Montney area.
23,336 Boepd 3 months ending 30 June, condensate and crude oil 32% of production.
191 million shares in issue.
C$586 million market cap.
@ Tony 17 Oct '21
Based on the 26 October rns entitled "Q3 Operational and Financial Update" it appears that I3E are perhaps listening to small fry investors like me and they won't as you say stick 'with AIM reporting requirements'. I can assume there will also be a Q1 Operational and Financial update for 2022 otherwise wouldn't it be just bizarre that there would be a standalone Q3 financial and operational update for 2021.
I have pretty much always declared an opinion of buy when posting (through the drop down menu). So I would hope that people would assume that I hold a position and currently recommend people to buy. I don't think I'm bearish or negative- just because I'm not rampity ramping don't mean I'm negative. I notice you never declare an opinion - your posts are always marked as no opinion. Perhaps I initially brought into a company with 700M shares not 1.1B shares.
You may beg to differ about Serenity but I think you know that the market sometimes over reacts to bad news. I think most people here agree that there is a complete disconnect with the value the market has attributed to I3E currently. Its not unreasonable to assume that if things don't go according to plan for Serenity the share price could at least temporarily drop by 20-40% (or more). I3E were wrong about 20k bpd and 314 mmbbls at Liberator. They may be wrong about Serenity too.
When you say $2M fcf are you talking about over an ntm period? Where did you get that info from? I remember some people were saying that the costs in our clearwater acreage are evidently higher other operators. Is that because we have poorer quality land? Or is it because our veteran Western Canadian portfolio builders aren't actually as good as they were touted to be?
So was "Doctor Jones" wrong when he said "4) internally growing production in Canada from FCF, starting at a base of 10’000 boe/d it doesn’t take much capital to double production". Perhaps he was right but instead of deploying the fcf into easily ramping production into our existing acreage management decided to dilute the company by ~50% (not as Graham Heath errornously claimed doubling our production for a 1/3rd dilution - 700M + 50% = +1B).
I don't think I have mentioned anything about skin in the game - but I have previously commented on the millions of options management rewarded themselves with an exercise price of 0.0001p but since you mentioned it I had a quick look.
It appears that the management and directors participated in the accelerated bookbuild back in March 2019. There was also an open offer for 'qualifying shareholders' to participate at the placing price (but only £2M worth). This was to partially fund the North Sea appraisal drills when they were targeting STOIIP of 314 MMbbls in Liberator field.
So yes management and directors had alot of skin in the game 3.5 years ago when there were only 87,375,278 shares in issue.
However here we are in October 2021 and there nearly 13 times as many shares in issue. It could be argued that the management and directors don't have much skin in the game now.
Now if you look at a company like Touchstone Exploration, their CEO Paul Baay is buying a few thousand quids worth of shares at the going price once a month.
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/oil-surge-gives-private-equity-a-window-to-exit-stranded-canadian-energy-firms
Looks like there are loads of assets in Canada for sale and it appears that FD&A costs haven't overtaken F&D costs yet.
The question is are investors happy with equity financing to raise funds for more acquisitions?
The thing is Kelt Exploration sold 140000 acres of assets in Montney which produced over 15000 boepd, with reserves of 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent to ConocoPhillips for ~500 million Canadian Dollars back in July 2020. So they've got loads of dosh now. They also have less than 200 million shares in issue.
Around about the same time I3E added over 500 million shares to its total share count to fund its Gain acquisition.
I dont understand how they come to these price targets. We have like P2 of over 132 Million MMBOE in Canada. And potentially 197 MMbbls STOIIP in the North Sea. We also pumping something like 18k boepd in Canada atm. I think we should be closer to £1 than 10p.
Be careful with what you say cashandcard I said the same thing in another thread and someone is accusing me of always being negative against I3E. Apparently to point out I3Es oil in Western Canada isn't Brent Crude might be interpreted as being negative or deramping to some?
@ Tony - I meant formal production and financial updates. More frequently than half yearly.
@ bots - "No one well will make us, no one well will break us."
Another duster in the North sea could be devastating. The north sea aside - I think that might be the problem. We when we have updates about 100 boepd wells coming online its just not sexy. A bit boring really.
What's everyone's opinion? Afaik I3E does not do monthly or even quarterly operational or financial updates. Or did I overlook something? Should they have more frequent updates if they don't already. Or are we gonna wait till March or June 2022 for the next update?
It's interesting to note that the CEO of Toscana Energy Income Corporation was Ryan Heath. He is now the President of I3E Canada Ltd. He is the brother of Graham Heath, co-founder and CFO of I3E. They both spent 6 years at the University of Calgary and obtained a Bachelors in Commerce (BCom).
I aped in about 6 months ago. Saw my investment go down by as much as 30% at one point. What ride its been so far.
If you invested a year ago you might be sitting on a triple bagger. Congratulations.
I just thought my position here would be moon bound by now. Even BP and Shell are up a similar amount to us over the past 6 months despite divesting substantial oil assets in their attempt to boast their Green credentials.
Some people may find ranked list useful.
Name / Shares in Issue (as of 31/08/2021- except for I3E)/ Market Cap (CAD - Canadian Dollar)
Bombardier Inc. - 2,458,248,118 - C$ 5 Billion
Enbridge Inc. - 2,340,731,006 - C$ 105 Billion
Cenovus Energy Inc. - 2,053,520,713 - C$ 28 Billion
Suncor Energy Inc. - 1,482,952,679 - C$ 43 Billion
Canadian Natural Resources Limited - 1,186,294,853 - C$ 59 Billion
TC Energy Corporation - 1,121,199,008 - C$ 62 Billion
I3 Energy - 1,101,252,776 - C$ 227 million
ARC Resources Ltd. - 724,952,382 - C$ 8 Billion
What's your opinion about the share price? Do you think it might retrace towards 10p or is it gonna hover around 12-14p for the next month and a bit (until we 'churn' through the extra shares from July? Unless some additional catalyst is announced in the meantime.