Member Info for ceejay101

We know the IER will provide leverage for Atlantic and assore to remove their support for the huayou deal. 

I've always thought this opens the door for a counter and a lot of us have thought there will be a consortium in the wings. I think the structure for such a deal is too long. In fact now i reckon Exim or otherwise won't be involved.

The simplest and easiest structure is a rights issue underwritten by assore and miif. The day the ier comes out both put in a combined amount of $50-70m to underwrite the rights issue allowing Atlantic to buyout elevra from the JV 

Why $50m and would elevra have already sold. Miif will ask the ghananian government to slow walk the approval and the long end date is not until next year. If the Atlantic deal is rejected then it reopens the elevra JV as huayou placed the bid on the Elevra JV based on full ownership. That premium disappears allowing Atlantic to swoop on a change of condition with the rofr at a lower price that $70m.

Any rights issue will be at a discount and will require cash pretty quick to complete. The majority of retail will either not have the cash or inflexibility to add to an ISA for purchase and will miss the boat. Assore and miif will hoover up.

Of all the options I've gone through this is the quickest and simplest. The JV just retains the ghananian government free carry and elevra is gone. No Exim, no consortium, no regulatory rejection. Assore retain a large strategic stake, which is possible through a rights issue without triggering a bid. Miif get a larger stake then they would with Chinese influence and Atlantic stays independent.

The next stage is then moving to capex funding but we can come to that later. Interested to get views on the rights issue.... Oh forgot to mention, the 18.8p and higher takeover are not guaranteed.

The ier provides cover for assore to pull their approval on the deal.

How about they issue a counter with MIIF to fund Atlantic in exchange to equity to apply a new rofr or elevra JV.

The ghananian government can quietly push regulatory approval out for the elevra approval and the ier along with the drag allows elevra the cover to reject the huayou bid.

In the background Exim provide the capex funding for development.

Here is the interesting part. Atlantic buys out elevras JV stake, assore and miif increase their holding in Atlantic and the JV just contains the free carry.

This seems very clean to me, no western consortium. The catch is that Exim will want western feed and a processor will need agreement.

@ReachForTheSky look up deal team 6 and Orion.

Writing letters to the board is a waste of time at this point. Huayou is the only game in town for the moment as they were able to act fast. Huayou have pulled the trigger and means that others must act or watch Ghana and possibly cote slip to china. This is a bigger question for western companies than just ewoyaa and Atlantic.

We discussed three options so far. The deal happens at current price, sweetened bid including counter or it falls through. I've initially seen the fall through as regulatory intervention but what if it is much simpler.

Using an average spod price over the last 6 months changes the implied Npv per share. The likelihood of the ier showing fair value is low. It provides cover for assore to remove their yes and the Atlantic deal falls. Assore want a strategic asset so odd to accept based on current terms. What if the low ball means that elevras stake is then in play. A western company could then just swoop on elevra at the right price. Behind the scenes assore would be sounded out whether they would align to a corporate takeover and given they want a long term asset, know the economics etc they may well want Atlantic to remain independent. The block was always elevra and Atlantic was only on the hook for $30m .

Maybe the whole play was to get a change of JV partner and huayou just fired the starting gun.

@StrummerJones - my view is that there is less and less value on this chat board. You have chartists looking at volume and telling me what the price is. Seriously! Who gets excited about a 0.3p increase one day followed by a 0.2p decrease. Essentially we are either here for the c18.8p takeout or more.

This brings me to the flip side that there is very little analysis here.. Every investor should be assessing the risk/reward, especially the downside to see how plausible it is. Quite frankly this is ignored with people repeating that 18.8p is guaranteed. I'm not saying it will happen. But there is always a probability and this allows for a risk based adjustment. Even miners use risk adjusted prices.

All it takes is for Assore to remove their support and then the offer collapses without sufficient shareholder support, even if it is binding. They are unlikely to do that unless they know a better offer is inbound or some condition changes (e.g. the IER shows we are undervalued). On the regulatory side there is plenty of pressure that can come from multiple angles. The US could speak to the Ghanain government or MIIF to block a chinese takeover and have some other funding in the waiting which might be informally discussed with Assore. I'm not saying it will happen but its a possibility. It all comes down to how important a shovel ready asset is to the west and whether they want to block the Chinese getting a foothold in Ghana.

My view is that a counter will come in although it will be backloaded to coincide with the IER. not sure who mentioned it here the other day about bids coming in late. I just imagine it as the Ebay bidding effect when the clock ticks down, everyone bids in the last hour. The 6 months is long but it gives enough cover for a consortium to form. At least we can all enjoy the summer with the price range-bound

@KMBXXX - the downside is that the deal doesn't complete and we are left in the lurch. The worst case scenario is that the US pushes FIRB to block the deal through an entity like AUKuS without having sorted out a western consortium. I know one or two on here believe 18.8p is guaranteed but then we all thought this would

The best case is that a us consortium intervenes, timing could be closer to the ier and assore pull back their support. Depending on how this is structured we might even remain intact.

The mid case scenario i see is that the IER shows lithium at stable prices above $2k and huayou boost the offer to close the deal.

Personally I think assore have been sounded out already and a consortium is being formed with a counter. The US is becoming more active on blocking Chinese takeovers, only the other day I was reading about deal team 6. There are plenty of US bodies that have assets like ewoyaa within their mandate

No shop, no talk. A superior bid would have to be rns'd immediately or at least within the 5 days it takes for Huayou to respond.

Nothing stopping people from speaking to Assore and asking what price it would take to change their mind though.

My understanding from takeover panel rules is that the standard 1% rule doesn't apply to the acquirer... Meaning any huayou purchase has to be disclosed.

Unless I've missed a disclosure it suggests its someone else.

@Not2sure - so the starting point is that a western consortium wont intervene based on recent precedence of Solgold. The implication of this is that we are either taken out by a Chinese company or remain independent and stuck in a JV with a chinese partner.

What differentiating factors are there between solgold and atlantic? The CAPEX was large for solgold, what was the time to production, and is Ecuador a US friendly place for business? I know copper and silver are but were they designated before or after an offer was made?

The reason I am asking all these questions is becuase I am trying to validate if there is there a reason for anyone else to intervene? If not, what is the downside risk. I don't mind being challenged, in fact i prefer it. The informed view im getting on this board so far is that the Huayou deal is going through.

@LeeBruce - thanks for the clarity from your side. There are plenty of regulatory hurdles beside FIRB.

My view is that various bodies will be leaned on to block the altlantic bid and prevent chinese ownership, particularly as US policy is very bullish on non-chinese owned asset. A western consortium will then act to takeover Elevra's jv stake provided sort out the full supply chain issues.

The worst case is that no-one intervenes and we are stuck with a stranded asset that we can't sell to either a chinese compay and that no western company will buy because of chinese involvement at the JV level.

I am intrigued to identify if there are altenative plausible paths but let's leave it with your view of guaranteed upside based on nothing stopping the bid.

@LeeBruce - the market has changed since leo/Ganfeng, that was a few years back. We have a world where Trump has talked up critical minerals. Going back to my first question, What happens if regulatory approval is not received? Do you believe that to be a certainty now or shall we stick to discussing new JV partners?

Sorry, my language wasn't clear.

If we had a Chinese JV partner that couldn't buy us out due to regulatory restrictions, would any one else want to buy us out?

If we had a Chinese JV partner or other. Who would take us over at that point if a Chinese company was blocked?

@LeeBruce - i really do appreciate your patience on this.

Who do you see as a possible JV partner?

Which of those do you see as likely?

I'm genuinely trying to breakdown the complexity here to see what paths there are and whether we eventually get to see a higher offer.

@LeeBruce - I've not said that at all! What I'm saying is that the Huayou deal is not guaranteed. I'm trying to kill off the boring talk about 16% or whatever it happens to be on a particular day.

What I'm interested in is what are the alternatives, some will inevitably be better than 18.8p.

So, what does BAU look like?

What does BAU look like? It could be a mixed state, where regulatory approval is made for Elevra's JV and held back for Atlantic, or potentially blocked for both.

@LeeBruce - you still haven't answered my question, which is "What happens if regulatory approval is not received?"

I can only assume from your responses so far that you believe it is 100% certain that regulatory approval will be given, which is an answer.

FIRB can reject company takeovers based on national interest and has increased scrutiny on critical minerals.

You have not answered the question I asked, which is "What happens if regulatory approval is not received?"

The reason i ask the question is because i don't believe the regulatory approvals are 100% guaranteed and by virtue of that the upside is not guaranteed.