Member Info for ceejay101

I'm going out on a limb and calling the optimisation to get released tomorrow

Given where we are I think elevera are a drag on the SP due withheld funds right now and also potentially going into FID. The earn in causes me some confusion. Why would a company pay atlantic full whack for the percentage of the earn-in when it eventually goes to elevera once conditions are met. In that sense even though we hold the percentage now I  suspect a buyer might value it minimally. Similarly if a buyer came in for ewoyaa I think they would probably agree some sort of settlement value with elevera, possibly by deducting the construction costs from the bid. Both these scenarios would attribute the earn in to elevera. 

Then there is uncertainty over elevera having the available funds going into FID. Their focus seems to be more north America even though ewoyaa is valuable to them. All these things lead me to question what will happen next.

I believe the optimisation will be released this week, most likely tomorrow. This will coincide with the further dilution which will be in sticky hands. This will support the share price and it pressure on elevera. It will also give elevera the time to pay-up the $6.5m ahead of Easter to show their intent. The dispute claims will still be in progress and move to discussion over the future funding. I think what elevera wants is their offtake with having to do the full funding. The cleanest option in this respect is that the JV takes on the debt through a loan and elevera reduces the percentage of the earn in. 

Back to the start, the earn in causes me confusion on how to value ewoyaa ahead of the FID. A settlement resulting a reduced earn in, in return for JV debt seems like a fair trade off that will allow for much smother bids. 

I would be interested to see if others have a different take?

Ok. My question still remains as im unsure whether the board will see the earn in as Atlantic's value until paid for or whether a bidder will see it eventually going to elevera and value it at zero

Does anyone know how much the 27.5% earn in is worth to Atlantic prior to elevera obtaining it in either the event of a sale of Atlantic or ewoyaa.

I'm not clear whether it has zero value or not.

How do you mean kicker

Whilst we are waiting around for paint to dry, if you were a board member would you be buying straight after the dilution occurs on the 25th? FYI - I'm assuming they are precluded from buying ahead of the dilution.

Unfortunately the dilution is also causing a drag

@EarEyeAm - I agree with much of what you have said.

Now that ratification has been achieved there is little for elevera to dispute. I expect that the money will be forthcoming rather than risk going to arbitration where Atlantic will say they had dilution to cover the shortfall.

Sometimes the biggest threat in a negotiation is not saying anything threatening.

@5toamillion - when you say throw us under a bus do you mean elevera will withhold funding so that we are a forced seller so they can get a bid in or don't want to pay the 70m+ and face losing the additional share.

From my perspective elevera are now being told we can go with or without you. The $6.5m in dispute is an opening gambit as a put up or shut up.the board have demonstrated we can go ahead without elevera and that they are in potential breach by not having contributed the $6.5m. the repercussion is that they are in breach of the agreement and could lose their additional entitlement, so they are now in a put up or shut up. The dilution puts us in a stronger financial position at least til FID and to get further ducks aligned. The optimisation will now force eleveras hand and we could benefit from elevera paying some additional money, losing part of their offtake and losing their further share of ewoyaa. MIIF could buy in that share so not necessarily a big issue.

The only consideration is that we don't want to get tied up in arbitration so in both parties to reach a settlement. The game changed when we received ratification last week. The work on the optimisation will assist as has the withheld funding from elevera. I think the driver has changed and elevera might find they are thrown under the bus

I wonder if we will get a pleasant surprise with the optimisation occuring at the same time as the issuing of the new shares.

My understanding is that it is part of the $70m which is why there is pressure on them to resolve the 6.5m sooner rather than later or face the consequences. It may even open up further discussion around the $70m ahead of the fid.

Atlantic are currently in dispute with elevera of $6.5 million. In the worst case Atlantic will accuse elevera of not playing ball so will no longer have the additional c 20%. Atlantic can then sell it on at a higher price of retain it for a takeover. I think the additional costs will now be part of the discussion and elevera will be forced to move as we now have funding in the short term without them.

The 25th is when the new shares are admitted. It could be touch and go which direction the shares head on the day. You get cash in the bank and funding certainty, plus elevera might get pressured to pay the disputed amount immediately rather than risk losing the right to their increased share

The build here is simpler , shorter and a fraction of the capex compared to solgold. It removes barriers for a bidder although on the flip side is how to navigate elevera and whether that is pushed by Atlantic (which might increase a subsequent premium) or leave it to a potential bidder.

Actually there is a 3rd element which is funding

Let's take solgold, how much would the development have costed and was the funding in place? I would suggest it was a major factor why there was a larger premium .

Our biggest uncertainty is elevera and whether they will pay. The sh#t just got real for them as the mining ratification moves things on for them as well the optimisation. It will be put up or shut up time and will provide a buyer with certainty. Plus it also provides funding certainty if we are not taken out. There are multiple scenarios that might occur with elevera.

@Teddy-KGB2 thanks for sharing the modelling from Claude. Can you update it to identify what the possible optimisation will look like and how that impacts the nav.

@EarEyeAm - the ghanaian pension fund have options at 22p so presumably saw that as the floor post ratification. given the current price they should be mopping up on the open market.

Canaccord - 37p yesterday. Back in 2023 they had 75p

After yesterday's thrilling installment of the Ghanaian parliament in action, I was wondering how bullish the rns might be, would it just state ratification done.

I read that final bit as we are shoring up valuation for upcoming bids so make them good. Given how the most recent approach was notified I suspect it will take a couple of weeks before we are informed and that things will be happening in the background

What price tomorrow now we have ratification?