Member Info for ceejay101

Im aligned on the frustration as there are plenty of other shares that have done well. The obvious thing holding me back here are the anticipated returns over the next 3 months that will outpace anywhere else. @5toamillion - you've mentioned both Elevera and MIIF. I actually don't think we will hear anything from either of them until after the optimisation. Infact I think the optimisation will be more realistic/pessimistic than we all expect. What it will demonstrate is that the economics are sound even at low spod prices. Whilst we all know there is a spod bounce, the finance bods don't like the volatilty it presents. Treat the optimisation as the platform to secure bank funding rather than the sales pitch and blue sky view of bolt ons like the feldspar.

The optimisation will then serve a further purspose for Elevera and MIIF. It will push for early ordering of items with long lead times to help with the 'put up or shut up' with Elevera. The sound economics and path to FID will also unlock MIIF funding. If the optimisation and MIIF announcement are tied together or within a short period we get a double whammy uplift of the project being sound and further government backing to go (additional derisking). The optimisation is the unlock for both partners. The other thing I'm pretty certain of, is that Neil will have a good squeeze of Elevera by the cahones to see if they have the funding commitment for Ewoyaa or are tied up in North America. This is turn will make a full sale easier.

As for the date of the optimisation, i had always thought it would be much sooner and that it would be a Monday to give the market a full week to price it in. There are two events worth calling out, the pension fund warrants which is around the end of April/beginning of May and a quarterly update. Ideally the quarterly update will further flesh out the next steps to FID. If you work back from those, you would want the optimisation at least a week before then which gives the dates as either the 13th or 20th April. You might question whether it can be held back for a specific day, I reckon it can just sit in draft until the timing is right which might just coincide with MIIF funding or not long after.

@L0ngterm what figure are you expecting? I assume you are talking Npv?

I've been waiting and wondering what is happening as would have thought that some news would have come through by now.

I think any bid now is opportunistic as the revised NAV, AISC etc won't be disclosed until the optimisation. We've not heard anything from MIIF either which makes me think that Atlantic are positioning the optimisation to secure funding with MIIF at the same time and any announcement will coincide with a MIIF board meeting. This will act as a double whammy to say look how great our key asset is and that we have funding to go it alone so you had better come with offers at a premium. If de-risking happens at ratification and FID, then MIIF funding adds further credence.

@L0ngterm - the negative is the opportunity cost of waiting as there are/were other opportunities in the market since ratification. Perhaps the aussies will spike the price and force a statement.

What happens if elevera pulls funding? They loose their earn in. They can drag their feet but we can dilute them by pushing through with development. The offtake will pay for the development and potentially bring in a new partner. If they can't pay their share of development they will be seen as the weaker partner and will lose out on any premium from a sale.

So they can throw us under a bus but they will find we will progress without them. It's in their interest to pay up and agree to a sale which can then fund their north American development

@L0ngterm - there are plenty of conferences in the coming weeks.

World lithium conference 13th April

Mines and money 13th april

Paydirt battery conf 21st April

All seem relevant and I'm sure the company would want news out ahead of paydirt in Perth, maybe even in time for mines and money

Herbert's motivation is a deal and he then retains his kudos. His warrants at 60-80p have expired but do raise the question whether 60p was previously where the board saw the price going.

Btw, his $610k is on change of ownership which is broader than sale

I don't think Atlantic are pushing for an offtake this month. My view is that the optimisation will prove a short payback and that every day delayed is lost $. we will immediately push for items with a long lead time and squeeze elevera for payment with a 30 day lead time. The offtake will conveniently come in at day 30 or thereabouts.

As for elevera if they can't pay on demand they will be a forced seller and we can position a full sale. The offtake funding will show we are not a forced seller either and will get a premium on our side.

I'm waiting for the optimisation to get released tomorrow with a steady rerate from there

If the economics are too good the Ghanaian government will want a larger piece of the pie. It's better to advertise it is as good economics and let bidders into the data room to find out more than to shout about it.

@EarEyeAm As opposed to the business person that makes a deal with the mafia for protection and then starts telling everyone openly that their business is worth a lot more.

We need that kind of sprinkle dust on this share.

It's a balancing act, at some point the economics of this project just look ridiculous. Again it will be interesting to see how the company play this.

Back to the FTSE, it's up nearly 1%. I'm not even sure what sectors other than oil are up. The only things I see in my watchlist as positive are oil, Atlantic and an etf for strategic minerals (which includes lithium).

@L0ngterm - the amazing thing about this share is about the news flow that will come out this month and next.

We could easily get to the point where rather than an offtake we get a strategic investment at a premium. It would fund all future developments, vindicate the company and probably boost the price higher with all funding in hand.

There are so many options it is dizzying. What kind of optimisation, how do we force eleveras hand, offtake, strategic equity stake, buyout. Nothing mentioned by anyone here would surprise me other than the price being 14p today.

I've tried to get people I know to buy in and it has been disappointing so far post rat.

I'm treating the likes of an OEM or a pure lithium player as a strategic bidder. Their key motivation is the lithium and not the feldspar.

I'll be waiting just as eagerly as everyone else to see what is in the optimisation.

Three is the magic number. Anything else just becomes noise. The easiest way to visualise this is Atlantic advertising that they will build, sell to a strategic asset owner or sell to highest bidder based on great economics. It will act as a statement of intent, a strategic bidder won't be interested in the feldspar so we'll see it baked into a lower aisc. For the highest bidder you might see it is as part aisc and a new revenue stream.

All those things you mentioned will be in one of the variants. The more interesting message is what variant is published

@EarEyeAm - i reckon there are three variation optimisations which have different capex and timing implications. Simplest build/low cost, strategic operation and for sale. The last two will have higher capex and will advertise to the widest set of bidders.

Keith has already committed that it will get released shortly and i reckon they have spent time game-playing each variation to see the outcoming, or at least that is what i would do. Holding back the optimisation for bidders at this point would only serve to keep the bidders limited as opposed to issuing the optimisation and inviting everyone to the party.

On a separate note, Neil held warrants (now expired) that would be exercised at higher prices, 60-80p. The board must have thought that target was achievable to a stretch at the higher end. It would be interesting if that was based on the DFS. if the optimisation moves the metrics upwards it gives an indication of where the board are considering a bid once dilution etc. is taken into account.

The Easter break can't come soon enough with the way the price is dropping. I believe that the optimisation will land next week, on Tuesday to give a clear read of it into the week and allow the price action to resolve by the end of the week. All the admin has been cleared with the dilution and Keith did say it would land soon. I think they had worked through a number of scenarios for the optimisation and how balanceing how attractive to make it without attracting too much scrutiny from the Ghanaian government.

It will be interesting to see if there are some tasty buys towards the end of day in anticipation of next week.

I'm seeing $0.28 which is 15p

I got in sub 14p, never thought I would see post ratification. Onwards to the optimisation next Tuesday. .

It will be interesting how the optimisation is played. I have a feeling it will look good but will underplay some of the metrics. If it looks too good then the Ghanaians will be wondering why they don't tax more. The optimisation will be the invite for everyone to take a look inside

I've just added a little more and will do tomorrow.

I'm expecting the optimisation to land next Tuesday, mainly because it hasn't come through yesterday or today. i dont think it will get issued on low volume heading into a bank holiday weekend. I still think there is some horse trading going on between Atlantic and Elevera.

why are we extremely undervalued? Dilution, perceived funding issues, Ghana, earn-in agreements, take your pick. The optimisation will blow all the doubts out of the water and we can then move on to tapping up Elevera for funding. We don't want to go anywhere as a distressed seller and get snapped up on the cheap.

I know there is lots of supposition in my message, its only when the optimisation is issued will a lot of this get cleared up.