Member Info for ceejay101

@ewoyaajunction - the quarterly is the hard stop where Atlantic need to put forward something. Sure, elevra took the early risk and that will pay of multiples. I'm sure everyone has heard of the sega deal where they saved Nvidia and made 3 times the amount. Even at this stage elevra stand to make a lot more of they were to just sell so I don't think they have done too badly.

The question I have is how bullish will Atlantic be with the quarterly?

Maybe elevera need some hand holding.

How about reverting to the DFS which they previously signed off and an intent to progress to FID with or without. Atlantic could also offer up some useful figures from the optimisation as a teaser, I'm sure they can work around the optimisation and legal requirements. The quarterly will be interesting and will demonstrate if the team are ready to dance or just wallflowers

If i was to write a book it would be called 'the squeeze'. the summary is below

1. Atlantic squeeze Elvera in the optimisation to stump up funds earlier knowing they can't commit

2. Elvera squeeze Atlantic and prevent them from issuing the optimisation

3. Atlantic squeeze out a quarterly update planning to proceed with the existing DFS if necessary

4. Assore squeeze out a TR1

5. MIIF threaten to squeeze the sh*t out of Elevra

Everyone lives happily ever after.

@Major-Tom what spod price and royalty rate was used in the DFS and what new royalty rate would apply using the same spod price. From memory i think they had spod at approx $1500 with 10% royalty and it would now be 7%.

I forgot to put Assore in the mix. How about a TR1 on monday to show a bit of intent?

Also, any body know if we can just use the original DFS to progress to development? Obviously the optimisation is good for updates but the DFS was signed off by the JV.

We are over a month since ratification. Id say most of that has been focused on JV discussions. MIIF likely have access to the optimisation and won't allow this to slide too long as this is a flagship project.

Based on the Elevra call this morning the discussion is live at the moment. I suspect it will move quickly with MIIF adding pressure. I can't see them allowing this to drift another month.

I think MIIF and the Ghana pension fund are key to this..both parties want to move forward. If the optimisation was fairly conservative then it's hard to dispute. MIIF will have access to the optimisation and will get it checked as well which makes it hard for elevra to stall.

Perhaps the 'shortly' was part of the squeeze on elevra to signal everything is ready so we all know the delay is with them. As for the emails being shared, I'm surprised elevra would get fingered like that. Perhaps the details are also out of date as parties would have been in discussions over the past 2-3 weeks anyway

@ThetaDecay - i dont disagree that Elevra has pivoted focus. If you extend that out, what does that mean for their current and future interest in Ewoyaa?

@L0ngterm - i posted the below yesterday on my view of the key activites to get to an optimisation RNS. Of all those things I reckon JV signoff is the most contentious. Apologies for all the lists.

1. design update

2. fiscal terms/economic revisions

3. Competent person review/signoff

4. JV sign-off (including elevera review)

5. Atlantic board sign-off.

@L0ngterm - I reckon there are a couple of reasons why Elvera might hold up the optimisation.

1. The design reduces the overall peak funding and will push for more money upfront.

2. Elvera want to drag the current dispute on or at least use it as leverage before the optimisation is released.

3. They are doing a pre-squeeze, before neil does a full-on. The Ghana pension warrants are due to expire soon so Atlantic will want that sorted soon plus its holding up everything else.

4. Elevera lose newsflow control once the optimisation is out in the open, its the only real leverage they have.

No big bounce for us today. Tomorrow Elevra have their quarterly reporting. I suspect they have been the biggest blocker in the release of the optimisation. They can hold off but they can't hold out indefinitely, otherwise the optimisation will just get leaked or Atlantic briefs next week that the optimisiation is currently held up with partners. It is better for Elevra to control the narrative whether they intend to progress or not.

Could tomorrow be the day and the share price being walked down today? As a disclaimer, i've thought the Optimisation could have been out any day this month so don't mind to much if i am wrong.

My take is that the following 3 events are catalyst

1. Optimisation

2. MIIF funding

3. Offtake

The board must be expecting 22p ISH based on the optimisation due to the Ghana pension warrants. It would come across as incompetent otherwise.

MIIF gives funding clarity and shows we have Ghana on side and some $$$ to progress with or without elevera. How much is that worth.

Add in offtake which could be a straight early payment, strategic equity or even reduced royalties if negotiated through MIIF then. Any off these and this will move.

I just don't see why the board would have wasted their time on rejecting 33p only to take 40p a could of years later.

@Major-Tom - I'm not sure we are used to controversy on this board, implicit or otherwise. ;)

If the optimisation was only based on the revised fiscal terms, I would be wondering what work was done in H2 2025.

On a separate note I'm perplexed on the silence and have tried to work out what the optimisation might include and have broken it into

1. design update

2. fiscal terms/economic revisions

3. Competent person review/signoff

4. JV sign-off (including elevera review)

5. Atlantic board sign-off.

What do we reckon, the market is anticipating the optimisation next week or selling has slowed?

@5toamillion - your question is an interesting one as I'm hoping that is the case. Fyi - you are my favourite contrarian here.

Rather than me answer it again, what do you think will be the outcome if elevera withhold funding. I'm not talking about the SP reaction, more about what you think Atlantic will do or indeed if it has multiple options.

I'm curious as I have been topping up every few weeks. I've done so recently at 13.8, 14.2 and yesterday at 16.2p and do so with the opportunity to sell other shares or monthly pay coming in.

For those of you topping up is there a max price you have in a mind where you won't top up further? Fyi - I have 22p based on a conservative bid of 40p and have just that as my risk/reward. Just wondering if others are taking different approaches

My largest shareholding is in Atlantic by a long stretch. Does anyone not have it as their largest shareholding and if so, why?

I've never understood this. Why do we think longstate are big sellers? Plus surely if they wanted to sell they could do some off market work with assore as the buyer.

I know you have mentioned this before but I don't think the board are motivated to get an early bid for multiple reasons

I've never known a bid to be over a 100% premium to the current share price. That's not to say it could not happen but imagine the bidder explaining to its own shareholders the premium

A private company like assore could make a bid but it would have to be a stonking one to hold back the optimisation. 

Why hold back the optimisation when you know you can push it as a sales pitch and a competitive bidding process. There are multiple things allowing for a rerate so why take an early bid. 

By pushing the optimisation the discussion comes up with elevera as to whether they will accept a sale. The majority sale will introduce a further bid premium. 

The board have skin in the game. Keith's name has been mentioned that he hasn't put his hand in his pocket. Im sure he will be pushing for fid to hit further performance targets and obtain additional shares. 

Realistically we all have our own views of what a takeout bid looks like. The difference between 40 and 60p will mean a big difference to some of the board members

Why would Neil rebuff a takeout of 33p and hold for 40p. He will want to retain an unblemished record as a deal maker

The most recent offer pre ratification is not a really an indication of how the company will handle offers going forward. Think of Atlantic having been in a boxing match and being on the ropes. At that point the last hope was ratification or takeover. Post ratification all Atlantic needs to do is prove it can do the full 12 rounds

@L0ngterm - thanks for sharing your view on the NPV and calculations.

Sorry to be the contrarian (usually that is reserved for you know who!) but I believe the optimisation will have a lower NPV and Spod price. I go back to my earlier post that the point of the optimisation will be for finance bods and to show that the project is workable at low spod prices. Let's take the 12 month spod average, it comes in about $1200, plus the other thing we have seen more recently is the offtake floor of $1000. Its far better to demonstrate through the low C1 costs and AISC that the project won't get mothballed rather than shoot for the stars. A conservative approach will get green flagged and quietly invite everyone to do their own modelling, apply their own spod prices, NAV's and maybe even reduce the discount rate to 7%.

Coincidentally, when we get offers I believe the NPV will be assessed at $2bn.