Member Info for Cebo-456

Divecentre in reply to your post at 1837hrs - I have never once ruled out a catastrophic event happening, but I certainly can put in in perspective and rank it relative to other risk based on probability and impact.
And of course you can quantify risks, you need to to be able to quantify them , in order to monitor them, manage them, control them and mitigate the effects if they happen as per your video clip. The Aoka Mizu Safety case does exactly that.
So just to recap, I doubt anyone on here can or has seriously categorically ruled out a catastrophic event happening, but at least some of are realistic about the chances of it happening, If I wasn't then I wouldn't spend half my life on bleedin FPSO's and Oil Rigs.
Now off to book my next holiday, on second thoughts, no I better not because of the real risk that the plane will be involved in a mid air collision or that I will get killed by a stingrays whilst paddling in the sea.

Nigwit, genuinly not really sure that I understand what you mean by "better sight" or could "fall either side" and although it is obviously impossible to put a precise figure on risk, understanding events and failures modes will at least give you a handle on the chances of mechanical failure causing each risk coming to fruition. Stick a Bowtie RA on top of that to to look at both preventative and mitigating measures in play, throw in statistics on reservoirs performance from similar plays. Benchmark against other comparable Companies if you think you can find one, Study the Giant Squid and its habitat and predict the POO etc etc and it probably is pretty simple to call, I would imagine :-).
Anyway, FWIW, everyone has different outlooks, strategies, risk acceptance and recognition. I really and honestly couldn't give a toss who buys, sells or trades here or at what price, nor who goes bust or who becomes a millionaire or multimillionaire through this investment. I have my own thoughts on probable and possible outcomes and hope to do extremely well, but whatever happens it won't be because I have listened to anyone's advise on a BB regarding risk mitigation, or when or which company to buy, sell or trade, weather predictions, tanker movements, volcanoes or electrification of planes, trains or automobiles.

And just to add, I have not read the article, not read any article from those Fools for as far back as I care to remember and have no intention of wasting my previous time on such gutter click bait rubbish. Particularly when I can read enough total baloney on the BB :-)

Nigwit, I assume that by your post that you have asked those obvious questions and come up with definative answers that satisfy your investment choices here. - I certainly have and it's not a simple as some try to make out. To do so, I have looked at quite a few decent, and not so decent attempts at Risk Registers for the project. I was also privy to quite a private comprehensive analysis that included FTA and FMEA which not only identified all systems risks but also impacts of failure, both in terms of costs to the Company and to the SP. Those were done by people a lot cleverer than myself who were used to building and working those models and had all the available and up-to-date industry information that allowed them to make the assumptions, but even then there were/are still the unknown unknowns, so to speak, but there always will be. But unlike others, possibly even yourself, I have absolutely no intention of trying to influence anyone on here either way and nor should anyone else. Small O&G companies are never 100% "bankers" but the reason most invest some or all of there portfolio in Companies like Hurricane, JOG, ECO etc is because there could be huge transformational upsides because of the residual risk, whatever figure you put on it.

I would rather take the advise of Wizard Taffy then Motley Fool, and if you consider WT recommended selling Hurricane and buying echo a 13p a share because there was a Valcano coming - then that shows how much credibility I would give to a Motley Fool article.

Bloobird, I follow your thinking but no one here really has a clue when or if big money will move in or someone will try and make a move for the Company. I also know that RT stated 3 - 6 months to have enough data to show or prove how the reservoirs work. I think that there will be a few oil companies keeping an eye on production and flow rates long before they are known to us lowly PIs.

Next few weeks

SIPP, I think we will see a tanker trial run in the next few, then we will see another tanker shortly after Foil which will contain all the Meg/Glyco from the flowlines and any clean up fluids from the well and Diesel from the topsides which will be stored in a separate tank, offloaded to the tanker and discarded. (the vessels I assume will be filled with Diesel and Nitrogen which will be replaced by the hydrocarbons when they turn the taps on).
Not sure where this 5k or 10k comes from, perhaps some Companies will wait until they have a certain amount in the tank before announcing it. As someone said on here though, as soon as they flare then people on the surrounding assets will know. They will start up with the Turbines on Diesel initially and use the Gas Recovery system after a couple if weeks, so flaring from the oft. All IMO.
I am guessing for about an optimistic 4 weeks till First Oil but if it takes twice that and they do it safely then I will be more than happy

Yes it's forecast to get a bit bumpy from tomorrow evening coming down again Monday morning. 9 to 10m Sig wave height on Saturday and gusting up to 70kts, Sunday slightly less. Nothing ti be to concerned about thoufh because those vessels will experience a lot worse weather than that and still keep producing through it. IMO

Jaykay, ref your post at 2225 - I may be wrong but was it not confirmed by Mr Platt via the Doc after the last AGM that this was indeed the case and could be done without flaring on the Spitzb before they were tied back to the MF and Bouy?

Yes Joe it will, but it will be pushed through by all the water and then they make candles for all the cabins on the AM with it in case of a black out - all part of the plan, I also hear that one of the GTs has been converted to run on wax.

Please tell us you weren't serious Joe.

First Oil in my opinion is when they remove the plates and open the taps and that is when we will first see it flaring. They may leave it a day or so before anouncing it officialy to ensure that the plant stays up but that is what most will class as Foil. I suspect that there are a few that may try to spot the initial flare and get ahead of the Market and I assume that this may be possible from other assets WoS, supply vessels and choppers , but if posted on a public forum then I would take it with a huge serving of salt as rumours will be rife as always, and not at all helpful to the SP, or Hurricane either. There will also be quite a few on the FPSO that will know exactly how close they are to opening the taps, and laterly the flow rates will be common knowledge amongst the crew - and no doubt their colleagues in the industry. There will also be just as many spreading rumours both positive and negative and most likely incorrect. I hope that no AM crew member is stupid enough to post such info on here and that it comes officially through an RNS. :-) ;-) . Best advice would ussually be to wait for an official announcement.

Not sure why fandg auto corrected to Candy. Haha

Candy, spot on, any carryover work scopes will have been completed and all the small jobs B Jobs that are ussually put on the backburner will have been completed as well as most of the leak testing - that is why it could take as little as 3 weeks.

The commissioning phase is on going but there will be no flaring before First Oil.

I have discussed this the how's and why's with a few chaps more knowledgeable than myself and asked why not before - apparently the hard part is or was targeting fractured basement, finding them and mapping the fractures - this has been done at GLA, the easy part is producing from them. Most other fractured basement reservoirs were found by accident and produced without any real understanding of what was happening down hole. Remember that Bob Dudley said that BP are waiting to see how it flows. Well he hasn't long to wait now.

There is no planned DST here so it will be a lot easier to keep a very tight ship. Core samples and pressure readings will be analysed onshore so ok, the drilling crew may see oil on the casing and samples bjt they will certainly not be able to guess what sort of numbers we are talking about in relation to volumes in place or recoverable.

Street, your last post fills me with confidence here - you sold last time and the SP shot up. You bought ECO and SP dropped so you sold and it shot up. Same story with Cluff and others - that bodes well for a nice rise tomorrow - I think the person that told you to buy high and sell low was winding you up.
I expect any rise tomorrow or next week and you will yet again have some retrospect trades to tell us about - quick tip though, if your retrospective trades happen at the weekend then they are probably just in your imagination, but don't let that bother you.

Mr Smyth, Ignore street, he is a fool.
Linoln well is an appraisal well so we already know the oil is there. The official CoS for the first Warwick Well is something like 70% I think - it will be in the CPR if you care to look.
Also,if you do a little bit of research, you will be able to guesstimate the time each well may take by benchmarking against the other wells that Hurricane have drilled.
Foil 4-6 week time.
Lincoln Spud 4 weeks time.
Licence awards for 31st round released - Q2 & Q3 (rinse and repeat?).
Update on move to the main market - anytime.
Further 2 wells drilled on GWA - Q2 & Q3
Potential Bids or partner announced - anyone's guess from Q2 onwards (let's hope they wait until after the drills and the EPS has been running for 3-6 months).
All IMO

Candy some on here are constantly negative and probably exactly the same in real life as well, best ignored if you can. Others are negative to try and cast doubt for whatever reason or on the pretence that they are warning others of dangers, ignore them as well. There are also a lot of "long term holders" appearing that haven't felt the need to post before but suddenly want to pass on all their views and wisdom with a load of posts , really!!!! - whether they are hugely positive or negative - I try and gnore those weirdos as well, most of the time anyway.
The posters that were predicting no weather window this week, and no hook up for months will be the ones in a few weeks predicting problems with the FPSO, delays with the maintenance to the Leader when she goes into dock etc - ignore those freaks as well.
What Hurricane have achieved so far is absolutely incredible in my opinion. They have discovered billions of barrels of recoverable oil and are on the cusp of Foil. The Bod are trustworthy IMO (not always the case on the AIM) and the potential is absolutely huge here..
One last point before I go away for a while - This is on the whole is an anonymous BB, poster can be choose to be anything or anyone they want to be - Superman, Batman, Warren Buffet etc - so why do so many choose to be complete f-ing tossers ????