Member Info for Cebo-456

SOTB, that is correct so watch the volume on here either way although by the time the PIs know then it will be too late to profit from it, it would be nice to be the tool-pusher on the Rig, although with no DST being completed, even the guys on the Rig will not have a clue about the volumetrics - :-) in till Equinor and Jog have analysed the data.

Ajax, if WH Ireland's estimate is even close than that would, IMO, push the SP up towards the £10-£15 range, more if any value is attributed to Cortina.

Schlemiel, I do not see Jog and PMG merging or PMG farming in or taking over if that is what you mean, I also do not see any TO happening before we have the full numbers on Verbier and hopefully at least one appraisal well on Cortina, although every Company has a price.
No what I think may happen, we get numbers on Verbier, hopefully somewhere around the 100million barrels Mark. JOG gain another couple of licences with a partner (EquiNor), and then decide to drill Cortina Q1 next year (possible Q4 19, but unlikely). Then I suspect that Equinor would be looking at a bit for JOG, or at least thier licenses.

Ajax, until Jog get the data from this well they will not know if further appraisal wells are required - this was mentioned on the CEO interview last month and also confirmed by an email. Worth watching not only the last interview (beginning Mar 19) but also the one from last year where Andrew and Malcy discuss how the numbers in Verbier may impact the SP.

Hurricane should hit £1 easily, but Jog, although more risk could also also at least double this year - so take your pick.

SOTB, No sign of Anchor Handlers yet so operations ongoing IMO, although just noted that Hurricane have charters confirmed for the Leader this weekend, if you are still holding there. See link below.

http://www.westshore.no/

SOTB, hi, probably not, they will hopefully have the data from this well to up the OIP and recoverable, but I think they may need another appraisal to see how bid Verbier really is, although Siesmic will help.

Robs, I looked at this in detail a couple of years ago and found nothing that worried me at all. From memory Trap Oil paid for most of the decom' liabilities and any remaining, which is doubtful could be more than offset if they open up a Athenas wells, which I am sure will happen if the OGA get their way. The next 2 supplementary licencing rounds will be interesting and Jog are very much in place to benefit from the surrounding licenses, not least the greater Buchan area (which I suspect, JOG already has completed a seismic survey on it to supplement the free OGA data). All IMO
All also think that any past speculation on the PMG board on and TO of JOG is just that, pure speculation - Equinor would be first in line and uncle Toms best hope is to build a small stake on the open market, which no doubt will happen. All IMO

Both the Grampian Sovereign and Grampian Dynamic are in the field at the moment.

Hi Max, I am also invested in ECO atm, but Jay is not for me. Anyway this BBs for JOG so i will refrain from discussing other shares here, besides I think that there will soon be enough to debate on JOG shortly which will bring the Herd back here. That will give this boards village idiot some competition. :-)

Max, good luck, you are a braver man than me, although like I say any downside should be minimal because the Verbier discovery is already commercial on jusr the Oil found around the drill bit on the last side-track, which IMO underpins the current SP.
The Bod are very credible and the CEO (Andrew) has always
replied directly and very openly to any emails regarding the company. Unlike other O&G investments where you get the NomAd giving very generic answers.
My largest holding is still in Hurricane who will also be drilling this month and bringing on line their FPSO - anyway back to Jog, this has huge potential in both the long and short term and certainly one to watch.

Max, sidetrack was successful on the Verbier exploration well, this is now an appraisal well to define and refine the numbers. The market has only priced in the minimum Oil that we know is in place, so in my opinion, the downside here is minimum. Short term any news on the appraisal will move the SP as will traders and investors buying in trying to pre-empt results, and update on the Sciesmic. Licence awards will also have an impact, as previously posted, but the real catalyst will be learning that there is 50+million barrels in Verbier (£4-£5 per share) and 100+million should see us close to Malcys £10 per share. Not factoring in Cortina.
All IMO

Drill bit should have reached TD by now IMO and core samples and pressure readings taken. No DST required here so depending if JOG decide to sidetrack or not (which could be positive or negative) then we could see some indication of results through buying or selling this week. I expect an RNS to say that the drill is complete and a positive indication that oil was located, but suspect that it will be about another month before full well results are released by Jog and Equinor.
With not a huge amount of free shares then buying or selling in larger amounts may be tricky.
I also think that any news on the Licences being awarded around P2170 will have a positive impact on the SP and if indeed JOG are awarded any of those licenses then the impact could be very significant. IMO . An extremely interesting few weeks coming up, fingers crossed.

6 minutes of complete tosh.

PT, did he say that? without checking I remember Andrew telling Malcy that further drilling could happen "as early as next year" . Fairdealer if you you do a wellbore search on the OGA website and OGA portal it will show details and consents. Also I think BEIS also has relevant info publicly available. - Also keep an eye on the Kingfisher fortnightly bulletins as they are sometimes ahead of the game, also new on AHV charters etc.
It only takes the operator 28days prior to drill through the OGA WONS system, but the would need all supporting documents, ES statements ,Chem permits etc and not least the location of where they want to drill. - They will not know if or where the next appraisal well will be required until they analyse the core samples and pressure readings*** and that will not happen until they have finished this appraisal, and the Rig will not hang around for 3 or 4 months for everything to be in place. ***No DST planned for this appraisal drill.
As this well is only a 2kn step out from the original drill, I suspect that the lower end will be increased up from the 26million but they will need further appraisal drilling to forecast the top end estimates, although the new seismic may help.

Cortina not Fortuna, bloody spell check.

Wishful thinking about moving on to drill Fortuna, I cannot happen as the paperwork, permits etc are not in place, likewise the other appraisal drills that are possibly needed on Verbier to quantify OIP/recoverable will not happen till 2020.

Thanks, as long as they (the underwater crows) are no deployed or recovered by rope then we should be Ok. I think that AS or RT mentioned them regarding the tie-in to the WOSP, so a little bit of time yet to get them fitted with Scuba Diving kit.

And FWIW, I am not in the slightest bit worried about the Giant Quid. My biggest aquatic concern is the "Underwater Crows" that were mentioned yesterday, are at what water depth they operate at and in what sea states. And should the "Underwater Crows" come under the responsibility of the ship watchers, or do we need another load of Spotters with new skills to track them.

Ivap, if you listen, even without any production then the Company are funded till q4 (confirmed yesterday) and if there was no production till Q4 then that would mean that something would have to have gone seriously wrong - like the Giant Squid calling in his mates and towing the Aoka Mizu back to Dubai.

Ghengis, bringing in a Major would not necessarily speed anything up, in fact the majors always take far longer than the smaller companies to make any decision. Which IMO is why Hur opted for Spirit Energy on the GWA as they could, and have moved quicker, drilling next month. The OGA will be hugely supportive of how hurricane are developing their current licences IMO which bodes well for any future licences that they may have bid on.

I do not see planning for FFDs as posturing either, hurricane and any suitor will know exactly what Hurricanes capabilities, both finacially and technically are, and what the assets are worth but doubt that they will be held to ransom. I do understand the theory on a buyers strike, but suspect that our major backers will be able to introduce others into the mix if that were the case.

And whilst I am here, DC, I think your post regarding Arnott is very speculative at best and if that is what happened then I trust that the majority of the board made the correct decision.
All IMO