Member Info for CaveatEmptor

MMP will not have been sitting on their hands for the last six months. The fact that we have not had a hard rock update since last September could well be an indication that MMP have been finalising their development plan based on the Fairbride DFS and their own site investigations.
If their investigations confirm the DFS metrics then with the POG at the current level it would make commercial sense for them to take the 'buy-out' option as this would maximise their ROI.

The buy-out cost would be 80% of the NPV, discounted by 15%

At today's POG this would be in the region of £60M - or about 13p per share!

However, it is concerning that there has been no news on the refurbishment of the existing hard rock plant or the intended
gravity processing that was supposed to provide income until the CIL has been completed. Perhaps this means that there is insufficient suitable material available to make the gravity processing commercially viable? If so then I think it would be best for them just to come out and say it so we can strike it off our discussion list.

The alternative may be that MMP have been focusing exclusively on Fairbride - in which case they must be close to making a decision on how they want to play it...

"Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow "

Maybe tomorrow? LOL.

Classic! :-)

Hello Andrew,

I hope you are right, but rumour has it that CB is a bit of a Macbeth fan - particularly Act 5 Scene 5 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNDWBWFrpjM

Those of us that have been here for a while have learned that , although CB may be basicaly honest and a good strategist, it is best to ignore off the cuff statements and to take written reports with a pinch of salt. Although the end game may be accurate, the timing is certainly not...

Having said that, I doubt the MC will be at this level for very much longer...

When nexus pulled out in early december the POG was in the low $1,400s and was looking like it would continue to plummet in value, however immediately after the decision had been made the POG rallied and quickly reached the current $1,550-$1,580 trading range.

I get the feeling that Nuxus thought the alluvials were too risky due to falling POG and unreliability of grade recovery?

As has been said many times before, the alluvials are unlikely to make us rich, but if they can cover group operational costs until we start to get some decent income from the hard rock then they will be serving us well.

Hard rock timescale is beginning to slip IMHO - CB constantly talks about orders having been placed for items on long lead times but never talks about the short term gravity processing using existing equipment nor a construction schedule for the new plant.

The last placing money will not last long if the alluvial production continues to decline and the last thing any of us want to see is yet another round of fund-raising. So everything hinges on getting additional income from the hard rock - one way or another.

An update on the hand-sorting of tailings at Kalengwa would help, but even that seems to be experiencing delays ...

I would love to be bullish about XTR, but it is getting increasingly difficult to do so, as there is precious little to crow about at the moment.

Of course all of that could turn on a sixpence with a little good news - are you listening, Colin?

Interesting that the interview has had over 240 listeners. Will be good to see how many listen after the hard rock and Kalengwa updates. CB was obviously excited about both, but couldn't say anything without first making a statement to the shareholders via an RNS.

On the down side, looks like alluvial production has been a bit of a washout for Q4 as nothing was even hinted at?

Would be good to get an honest report of the current cash position and cash burn with the next RNS.

Buying action today could be as much the result of the recent hike in the POG as it is the RNS - in fact, more likely IMHO as it gives a bit of a safety net for the profitability of the alluvial production - even in the rainy season!

Whilst by no means certain, it would be nice ( and something to crow about) if the company could turn a corporate profit in Q1.

Whilst the news is encouraging, these projects are months, if not years, away from production so this update is not likely to have much influence on the SP.

Manica and Kalengwa both represent near-term cashflow opportunities and updates on either/both of these is likely to have far more impact.

Over to you, Mr Bird...

Definitely more buys than sales at the moment.
Hopefully CB can justify the modest increase in sentiment?

Hello Andrew,

Happy new Year.

I have always thought that CB was giving an honest opinion, based on information available to him at the time, when giving timescales - that is not the same thing as being right about them, as has been shown on many an occasion!

I, too agree that the final result is what matters, but it would be nice for CB to get one of his time predictions right, if only to prove he can do it...

The next few months are likely to be pivotal for the XTR share price. It would be helpful to get 2020 off to a good as it would restore a little confidence.

Rainy season at the moment, not likely to be any progress on the hard rock before early February?

However, on 19th November, we were promised they would "update the market on the drilling program and results over the coming weeks." for the Zambia projects ( particularly Matrix and Kalengwa), so we should have news before the end of next week otherwise "weeks" turn into "months".

What are the chances of CB getting his timescales right this time?

I wouldn't read too much into just £10,000 worth of trades...

And looks like 2020 may be a very good year to start the hard rock production: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-12-30/Bold-call-gold-prices-to-hit-2-000-in-2020-City-Index.html&ved=2ahUKEwjmq_6-v9_mAhVFXRUIHYflB7MQFjABegQIDhAH&usg=AOvVaw04uLdFSFbvJhAR1y4dJJ3v

Whilst in no way supporting JP's blatant ramping and distortion of the facts over the years, it may help to remember that , from memory, the SP in early 2014 was about 4p (I seem to remember a 4.2p open offer around that time?). This was close to the beginning of JP's tenure of CEO, and a legacy from GO, whome he supplanted about a year earlier? on-again from memory.

So from 4p in 2014 up to 100p in 2016 and now down to 2pfollowing a long 3 year slide in price.

Certainly a roller coaster, but surely also one that some PIs have managed to make money out of?

I hope everybody had a good day yesterday.

Nice to see the POG break $1,500 again today. POG is now twice as important to us on the alluvial front, so means we should turn a profit, even on mediocre production.

We should be getting close to news on the hard rock gravity processing and it shouldn't take very long to hire some locals in Kalengwa to start hand processing of the tailing pits.

So 2020 could get off to a good start?

Sorry- hard rock, not garden rock, my auto-correct is out to get me at the moment.

Alao Alluvial production generally comes from river beds and surrounding terraces and I am not sure that our garden rock targets are in these areas?

As always, many more questions than answers...I guess that is what keeps it interesting!

Hello Andrew, that is one of the reasons that I also quoted CB but then I had a meeting with him and he said the large boulders couldn't be processed so were left in situ and these were the Rocks that get in the way. Then the grindings resulting from processing have to go somewhere so are spread over the area they came from. Consequently there is little benefit obtained from the alluvial works.

I guess they could drill exploration holes between scarification and tilth repatriation, but that would probably take more organisation than is actually practical?

That should be scarrified, not sacrificed, which gives a very different perspective on the situation. LOL.

Must remember to turn off my auto correct.