Member Info for CaveatEmptor

Looking through MMP eyes, low hanging fruit is probably a distraction. They are probably focused on the commercial hard rock production .

Providing we get income from HR production this year, it may be the best option?

Hello Andrew,

As always I agree with 80% of what you say and respect the rest.
Just looking at the POG over the last few hours shows that even the largest markets can be manipulated, so what chance have we go on AIM?
Fortunately all markets tend to react to anticipated events and that should mean that XTR should profit overall.

A certain amount of patience will almost certainly be needed here....

Having had more time to digest the RNS I am coming to the conclusion that it would probably be a bit premature for MMP to put in an offer at this stage. From their perspective ot would be a bit like buying a pig in a poke.
If I were them I would want to get some actual production statistics on which to base an offer. I believe that MMP are cash rich but I doubt they are desperate to spend it.
Taking Andrew's points on board, there is a good chance that keeping to the partnership deal will make more money for XTR shareholders in the medium to long term so a buy-out scenario is probably not on the radar at this time.

Having said that, if we can get cast iron assurances that the building of the CIL plant will be complete and we will be into commercial hard rock production before the rainy season starts then I can see the SP bagging from this level.

Let's see what the next update says...

Hello NTM,

Of course CB would have to be able to complete the sale first! Not at all a certainty that he can do it, as there are many variables, not least the POG.

However on the upside, CB does have a proven track record of selling assets, so who knows?

This is still a risky share IMHO, but less risky today than it was yesterday, I think that, in itself, is worth a bit of an increase in the SP - don't you?

The market certainly seems to be waking up now - well done those that bought on early doors - could prove to be a great investment? However, I would hope that any cash distribution made after a sale of the hard rock would be at least 1p per share ( only £5M cash distribution) - so those buying at the moment may end up getting their shares gratis?

To be fair,

CB said before the end of march, but didn't give a year LOL.

Seriously though, on past performance March could easily slip into April, but if there will then be an offer on the table that gives the company sufficient cash to develop our other intrests and, just as importantly, to make a cash distribution to we long suffering shareholders, I would be inclined to forgive him one more time...

Interesting that the RNS was published at 4.30.

Was this done so that all shareholders will have time to fully digest the information before resumption of trading tomorrow?

Not often that companies take the trouble to put all investors on a level playing field?

So, could this really be a serious development that will change the trading fundamentals of the company? If so, a serious rerate of SP is on the cards...

Hello Andrew,
I agree.
Most commentators in 2019 expected the POG to rise dramatically in 2020 just based on political and economic global factors. .
Global markets hate uncertainty above almost anything else.
The new epidemic started at the end of 2019 and has certainly contributed to an increasing amount of uncertainty since then.

Once the epidemic was seen to take hold, the natural response of investors was to liquidate many of their investments into cash - once panicked, even from gold that had, up until that point, been profiting from the uncertainty.

As the pandemic continues to set in I believe that many will pile their cash into a safe haven - traditionally gold.

The viral outbreak is likely to run its course in 6-12 months and the fatality rates of 1% are now being questioned in favour of up to 3.5%. This will cause even more uncertainty, if not panic in some areas.

The bottom line is that many, myself included, will probably move a higher proportion of their investments into gold and other 'safe' minerals for the short to medium term.

This should produce a spike in the POG that could last up to 18 months, so those that can, will throw everything they have available at 'making hay whilst the sun shines'... All in my personal opinion, of course.

ATB

Hello Andrew,

The sale/royalty scenario does seem attractive as the royalty would give XTR, based on current POG, around £2M a year for about 15 years ( for the full licence) . This would give XTR ongoing funding and therefore, financial security.

It would also make a very valuable licence more easily affordable to the purchasers...

If CB can get over $40M for the sale part of the deal then that is great, but I would be more than happy with my prediction

Gixxer, the predicted replacement income for alluvials could refer to the royalty I mentioned?

Recently it has been out of character for CB to make an outright sale of anything.

My guess is that he will sell the whole of the licence with a royalty on future production. That would give plenty of money up front and ongoing income to fund other projects. A 5% royalty would probably fully fund our planned project development.
Sale of licence for between $30M and $40M on this basis would be an excellent result IMO.

We will know by the end of Q1...

I agree, Lucky, no other reason to say it will be tabled to shareholders rather than we will get a full update or progress report. The phrasing used does seem to indicate that shareholder approval will be needed...

POG has got quiet some way to go before it's at an all time high. Reached $1,895 at some time in 2011, if memory serves.

However the price is certainly going in the right direction, that's for sure.

The POG will only be reflected in the SP here when we are getting the stuff out of the ground IMO, until then the SP will probably continue to float around the 1p level.

Highest volume since last October , when the share was trading over 0.2p

Will history repeat itself?

Hello H5),

Was that the end of Q1 or Q2?

However, lots of 0.14p shares around to be sold into any rises...

Looks like somebody else has decided this is the time to buy?
Quite a stake being built, by the look at it!

Yes, POG does look like it is still on the up = $1,610 today!

At this price it must be possible for even a half-wit to make money out of a gold mine...So at least we have a chance!

Hello LittleWing,

For many LTHs an SP of 3- 4p wouldn't even break even - I think even CB is averaging over 4p, when you take his investment company contribution into account... Hopefully he intends to show a decent return on his investment.

Hello Dave,

The figure I quoted was very much conservative, based on the fact that we only need to add a CIL rather than pay for an entire processing plant, as allowed for in the DFS.

Of course the '!' After the 13p SP was intended to be a note of caution, as getting that price is, in my opinion, unlikely.

However the 'paper' price I quoted is correct, based on a current POG of $1,580, and the generally held view that it will increase inthe short to medium term. Also there is much talk about the value of the USD increasing and that wouldn't do us any harm either.

On the whole, I would say that we are in a good position providing we have a dedicated full time captain at the helm - but I think that Captain Bob is the best person to make that call...