Member Info for Caterham7

SB - very insightful - thanks

SB - are you able to explain typical next process steps for the ‘drafted proposed final funding package documentation’. Thanks

Inheritance tax is due on all AIM shares, whether in or out of an ISA. I have just been through probate process involving AIM shares!

Hang on in there SB - can’t be long now! I’ve got more shares than you, so can sympathise. I find your experience based posts very useful. C7

Lot of pent up venom in there Condor!

Quote Condor - ‘HAA is the reason why this project has been in limbo for over 5 years while spaffing £50m up the wall.’

I disagree, the main cause of limbo is civil war and corruption, all of no great surprise in a country like Ethiopia. I spent 15 years working in many African countries - Ethiopia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Angola, Chad, Equatorial Guinea. I’ve seen mighty FTSE and US global corporations stumble and exit from great projects, because the macro was out of their control.

Yes - Harry could have done some things better, as could 99% of CEOs, but I think civil war was beyond his control. Remember even the US Gov and Biden stepped in to show their support for incumbent Ethiopian Gov - way out of Harry’s control.

I very much suspect ‘misunderstanding with the Ministry’ is Harry politely refraining from directly pointing out to the Ethiopian press that the previous corrupt MoM was making demands that could not be satisfied!

I suspect that is one of the contractors who was paid in shares, now selling into the slight rise this week.

JBoot - if you have time, I highly recommend getting light aircraft from Marrakesh to Fez. I’ve travelled globally in Oil business for 30 years, and Fez is most amazing place I’ve ever visited - probably closest thing to Terry Pratchett’s ‘Discworld’ on this planet of ours. Enjoy. C7

Someone’s hoovering cheap shares this morning

Graham - you can quote me if you want. I’m not very good with all that social media stuff!

That is a very positive RNS. I have worked in O&G Exploration for over 30 years. I think the Jurassic test has potential to be one of the most globally significant discoveries of the last decade. Very pleased to see confirmation in RNS that the Jurassic will be tested.

Judging by the posts today, there is very limited appreciation of the complex conditioning wireline log data is subjected to before it can be evaluated. Here is link to a good representative example - read the sections titled ‘Log data available’, and ‘Log Conditioning’, and ‘Curve Synthesis and Reconstruction’, and ‘ Cross-plot analysis for quality control (QC) of conditioned log data’.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13202-017-0373-8

That’s a nice summary of lengthy process that needs to be done very accurately BEFORE logs can be evaluated for sand and gas characterisation. Hence why no quick release of logs, and no knee-jerk comments from PG.

In my own experience, I’ve known Petrophysicists agonise over perfecting log conditioning for many weeks, and even then make adjustments years later in order to further fine tune Field characterisation.

Due to stated hole instability issues, it is very likely the objective hole section was drilled with over balanced mud, ie, mud density higher than normal to support hole wall, which will also suppress gas from entering wellbore, hence no mention of gas. Very common operational occurrence. Only way to establish gas presence is by flow testing.

Partial relinquishment of both oil & gas, and mining, exploration licences is standard practice the world over. Google ‘partial relinquishment exploration licence’ and you will get links to many global government agencies describing the rationale and process. The partial relinquishment allows the government to recycle acreage new licence areas, which will generate more potential commitments and revenue, and in turn the partial relinquishment will reduce the licence fees PRD are paying by 25%. PG will know already which 25% of the acreage likely contains lowest resource density. So in summary, the partial relinquishment sharpens focus on high-graded acreage and reduces cost. A win-win. Also, I suspect nothing to stop PRD relicensing the 25% at a later date, but bidding may be intense if pending well results and flow tests are as good as we hope.

I’m genuinely touched by all the well wishes - appreciated. I have bottled them all up as a lucky tonic and sent subliminally to Paul and Lonny.

Mariachi - your comments regards turbidite continuity are largely incorrect.

Examples of sub-meter sands proven to be laterally continuous over many kilometres, are observable in both field outcrops and field well databases. Good examples can be read in this very nice paper, starting at bottom of page 37.

https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/131925/7/1-s2.0-S0264817218302551-main.pdf

You make two incorrect statements

1. “These are turbiditic sands and the thickness directly relates to the size of the event.”

2. “ plenty of sands to go after but individually small as not extensive laterally”

In reality, it is proven that turbidite thickness and lateral connectivity are controlled by the complex interplay of the following variables (rather than “the size of the event”)

1. Is the turbidite system sand rich (low efficiency) or mud rich (high efficiency). Remember that the finer grained sands generally found in thinner beds will travel further, ie, classic Bouma sequence.

2. The volume and energy of the turbidite flow (commonly referred to as the ‘stroke’)

3. Where abouts in the fan lobe are you measuring the thickness? A non-tabular turbidite bed will feather and thin toward the lobe margins.

4. How confined is the basin floor on which the turbidite is deposited? An unconfined basin will let the lobes spread laterally for great distances, resulting in better developed marginal thin-bed facies.

Lot of public domain literature on Google, giving many examples of thin bed turbidites with immense lateral continuity.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/199293397.pdf

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/82011/3/Puasa-I-2018-PhD-Thesis.pdf

If you want to better understand the geology of turbidites, I highly recommend exploring the extensive outcrops of Arnot Basin (France), Tabarnas Basin (Spain), and Karoo Basin (South Africa). I have taught Turbidite field classes in all locations, and I used to teach classes in deep-water depositional systems for a major oil company whose logo is the Pecten Shell.

Apologies for my extended absence from this BB. I was involved in a horrific car crash (not my fault) in April. Fifteen broken bones, cranial fracture, and seven weeks in hospital. Still house bound. Following my investments seemed rather irrelevant. Still holding all my PRD shares, and happy to leave BB in Keith’s capable hands.

Agreed - story intact, and largely derisked - now just a waiting game. Negativity is just the usual crew spreading alarm, but kindly allowing me to scoop shares at a price I thought I would never see.

That’s a very good question Equanimity, but sorry I honestly don’t know the answer, only because I don’t believe it has ever happened before. I seem to recall, in a recent interview, HAA said something about Kefi being first foreign company to seek right to administer is own banking and capital arrangements (please correct me if I have got this wrong), ie, there is no prior example of this process to use as an analogue. Given this, my gut feel is that EG want TK to happen quickly, so it should happen in a reasonable timeframe.

Ive been invested in KEFI for over four years. Been buying dips and selling bounces. Done OK. Now hold over 25,000,000 shares, at approx 0.71 average.

Im an Exploration resource Geologist with a FTSE100 company. Lot of Africa experience - unlike most on this BB. I fully understand the risk-reward, and am very happy to hold. KEFI is classic case of a junior miner whose share price is following the the Lassonde curve. KEFI is late Stage 3.

https://kuchling.com/the-lassonde-curve-a-wild-ride/

Lot of very interesting Lassonde Curve articles, discussion, analogues on Google / YouTube. Pierre Lassonde is a billionaire investor in mining companies, so understands a thing or two!

Have to be bonkers to vote against HAA at this stage of the curve. No one with his experience of the projects, nor EG network contacts, would be able to step in at this stage, just in time for stage 4 take-off.

So by June 9th we expect an RNS with date of General Meeting.