Member Info for Catbert

There are lots of projects here which have reasonable credentials and some with potentially very large upsides.

Senala is now self funded and can only end in an upside if our partners are right about their continued investment in the venture.

A fund raise(s) is inevitable - it is the nature of an explorer stock. If they find worthwhile resources using this money, which we hope they do- then we'll all get a bigger pie to share.

If the cost of exploration/ resource discovered is well managed here then board will be adding value. That they have a number of decent targets to go for makes managing this process a little bit easier.

My target is that they are a £100m cap in 3-5 years. Either that or down to zero! Hopefully not!

GLA DYOR

This is pure speculation, however one possibility is that Bill is preempting a much bigger warrant exercising from Sprott. The issue being that if Sprott exercises all his warrants that could put Bill into a < 5% holding which would erode some of his rights as a Director. If they're using the warrants as a funding source going forwards Bill will need to exercise some of his to maintain his > 5% position.

I'm not sure if this is positive or not- perhaps more neutral than anything - short to mid term funding will be warrants rather than a raise but most people here had assumed this anyway.

We still await Cube's report ergo the gold sale is on hold (at least until the report is published). Furthermore if negotiations are underway no comments can be made on the gold subject.

The blessing of being in possession of numerous types of resources is also a complicating factor at least it is if we are not to simply give them away in our haste to make a sale here. To sell any of them we need to define them.

Do we just hand over junior lake if it has a large valuable Lithium resource on it? No. Any board that would fail to seek to further define this resource would be negligent and not acting in the shareholders best interests.

Here we must deal with both complexity and uncertainty. On the plus side the resource values continue their ascent. On the down side in order to realise the value of all that we have we may need multiple buyers and more time to define the non gold resources. It is what it is. I don't see what else the board could reasonably do under the circumstances.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/market-multiples-preproduction-gold-projects-feb-1-2021-joel-schneyer/

Landore stands up rather well using this analysis. This was pre the latest MRE. Posted on one of the other sites.

People are seeing the value?

One imagines that had the share price been gently climbing or holding since December then investors here would be happy to wait for news on the PEA and future plans and they'd also be content to live with the radio silence from the board.

As it is PIs are all losing money here and as the price drifts lower in a news vacuum amid fears of a further raise as it has done so now for a few weeks -it is certainly disconcerting for many.

The reality is that volumes of the share are anorexic and have been this thin since the flurry around the MRE.

Those who have bought already are awaiting an answer as to the question about BAM being a viable mine.

Some overweight holders trim a few and we meet strong support at 20 but little else happens as many of the traders came and went after the MRE.

People who thought this was a great project are already in.

Until we have news of a sale then we'll probably not see a lot of new buyers.

Hence the price action amid these thin volumes continues to be disconnected from what many see as the fundamental value of the project at BAM.

DYOR GLA

A credible company can always get money to drill.

So far Bibemi has shown gold and a potential resource but nothing as yet of in terms of spectacular grade or thickness.

The CLP is where the real excitement is as in most cases drilling will confirm ground sampling results.

We currently have decent ground sampling results at CLP and enough funds to drill, plus we have some legacy projects which are due to finally turn cash generative- so we're not in bad shape financially.

What we need is to hit something of bonanza grade or something that is decent grade, thick and not too deep-in other words we need to hit something special somewhere. If we do we will have people beating a path to our door at which point the market cap will take care of itself.

The fact that we've postponed the river sampling to concentrate on developing what we've seen so far from ground sampling in the CLP says to me that we're already onto something. Some of the Director trades might back this up.

Some luck is required in this game but the board do seem to be making the right calls to put us in the best position to be lucky.

GLA DYOR

True, a new PEA might not add much to the last one. It is nonetheless crucial.

Getting very senior people to sign off a big transaction based on an outdated PEA is unlikely to happen.

The PEA is fundamentally the business case for BAM, it verifies all of the significant facts and will be pivotal to concluding any sale.

Before anyone goes to the bother of submitting a formal offer it is reasonable to suspect that any potential buyer would firstly have a conversation with one of our board members along the lines of "if we were to offer x would you sell?"

That wouldn't be an offer it would be a question. If the BOD said no we wouldn't welcome an offer of that sort then no offer would actually be made.

Hi Samval, I'm not sure what data they had at this point you could probably find out. The 18 months I quote is the time between the initial bid and the final sale. others here might know the story better than me, however I understand that the initial bidder wasn't the ultimate purchaser.

The £63m figure was based on the gold only on a resource of 1m oz's and excluded the additional 500,000 oz's discovered last year. I would guess that the Gold alone is worth at least 1.5 x that figure putting us nearer to the £100m mark on Gold using the original Cenkos estimate.

Based on what others have sold for Cenkos seems to have gone with a pretty conservative number and well below the £100m per million ounces quoted by some although to be fair to Cenkos they may now place a different value on a per ounce basis given that we now have proven a much larger resource. The rationale being that a 2m oz resource is worth more than double a 1m oz resource.

I'd love there to be some sort of update announcement as it is frustrating not to know exactly what is happening-however in some ways the silence is indicative that progress on a corporate transaction might be underway.

The board could neither confirm nor deny this without giving the game away.

Indeed, it would be very difficult and legally risky for the board to make any statement that would contain price sensitive information related to progress on any bid discussions until the outcome was cut and dried.

So the silence is both maddening but at the same time potentially very positive.

In all Brancote took 18 months to sell so the reality is that a sale can involve some twists and turns before it lands.

GLA DYOR

Hi UR, I'm not too crazy about the idea of a lengthy drill campaign into Felix. The ground sampling looks good and I had understood it that we had not drilled there. So if we have done so already then I stand corrected.

It seems that the big gold producers are a pretty cautious lot. One direction we could proceed in is to fund raise the $93m needed to get the open pit operation going ourselves (this figure is based on the last PEA and is probably more now) we could do this with or without a JV partner.

I've seen other explorers do this, Phoenix Copper is one such example.

The advantage of doing the project ourselves is that there are not many buyers for a Gold and Battery metals project and so realizing the value of everything we have is going to be difficult because the buyers want one thing or another.

This approach also mitigates the risk of us underselling the asset given that so much still remains undiscovered.

However if we can get mining we don't need to sell in order to realise value for shareholders or we could sell for more once we are a going concern plus we also have the benefit of enjoying the value of any as yet undiscovered new resources ourselves instead of giving them away to a buyer as a freebie.

It really doesn't matter who digs the gold and battery metals out of the ground just as long as someone does.

If we genuinely believe we have an economically viable project then we should be invest able from debt raising perspective. In other words we don't need a buyer at all other than maybe someone to offer us a royalties deal.

I'd be interested to know what other posters think of this idea. It is a lot of money to raise but then again our resource is significant and our prior estimates on ASICs look appealing.

From RNS 10th January

"Planning:

Drilling will re-commence in March on further delineation of the newly discovered western extension shoot together with commencement of drilling on the highly prospective Felix area along strike and to the west of the BAM Gold Deposit."

Admittedly there isn't much difference between Landore's corporate communications and the output of a Trappist monk.

But joking aside, I'm not expecting to hear anything for a little while yet on this.

Bill (the drill) would have to be nuts not to find out what he's got at Felix before selling so there 's that.

A rough estimate is 3m per hour on a diamond drill rig and with one rig started at the beginning of March it will be the middle to end of April before we know what we have there (with a 2500m campaign), plus another 6 weeks for assays. If there are two rigs we may know sooner but it'll take approximately 800 hours of drilling either way.

Secondly we have a PEA due soon. It is difficult to see a buyer wanting to drive through a completed sale without having sight of this first (even if they ultimately ignore it or disagree with it they'll still want to see it).

Thirdly there is this thing with Ukraine. Any buyer might be keen to see how this plays out before committing a large amount of capital to a big project like Junior Lake. Russia and Ukraine account for 2.5% of the global economy so it's no big deal economically (unless you are a Ukrainian) but if China gets drawn in and the USA imposes sanctions on China we are headed into more serious waters.

A wait of a couple of months looks likely.

In the grand scheme of things it's neither here nor there.

Some of the ramping here is getting a little toolish.
Wake me up when there is an actual RNS. Zzzzzz.

I agree Samroy and thanks for your interesting post.

The other difference between Landore and SHG is cash in the bank SHG have $11m and so their shareholders are at almost no risk of dilution.

Here we are running out of cash and so speculation on future funding is keeping the price in check.

A bid or some decent results at Felix could easily send the price through the roof.

This would put the warrant holders in the money and would probably resolve the question of additional funding (if it is still an issue at that point) . I have previously speculated that the BOD are playing for time (not because I know anything proprietary) but because the drilling at Felix is the final piece of the puzzle.

Cube in their last but one MRE posited that the Western extension and Felix areas were indicated as strong targets to multiply the resource. Last year's drilling proved the case at the Western Extension.

Felix is an unknown (publicly at least) and we are days or weeks away from knowing.

I'm trying hard not to think about it too much (you know what curiosity does to cats).

Those guys are mining 15,000 oz a qtr.

The one thing we know for sure at this point in time is that the BOD are playing for time.

The possible reasons why are;

1. Fundraising activities.
2. Ongoing negotiations for sale
3. Need to prove up unclassified beyond an estimate based solely on ground sampling as the unclassified estimate will certainly be a subject of the negotiations if a sale is being discussed now.

The BOD delayed quite some time on the MRE release (several weeks) so it is within their usual range of behaviours to delay expected announcements by these sorts of timescales.

In the case of the delayed MRE announcement many would consider that they had a reasonable case for doing this.

Currently reasons 2&3 would be cases where they might reasonably delay an announcement.

I'm not betting any of my nine lives on it being what is really happening but if we are talking 2 & or 3 then it's not as if they can say anything now anyway - not until we have a bid to put to shareholders.

For a bid we need to agree either a method for valuing the unclassified resource or to agree a sum which is acceptably high enough for the BOD to put it to shareholders. It seems unlikely that a buyer is just going to throw money at us to get the deal done by making a wild unsubstantiated bid for the unclassified based on ground sampling alone so maybe we have to agree a method for valuing the unclassified.

Last year Bill was talking about a figure to get us a buyer willing to talk about a sale and our drilling was all about achieving this aim. It seems reasonable to suggest that he's done this.

The question which nobody could answer last year was how much would the buyer need to pay.

To answer this we still need to square the circle on the value of the unclassified.

Perhaps the next batch of drill results will give us a basis for this. Indeed if this is the case then we may not hear any more significant news until late March at the earliest.

https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-now-sells-gold-gas-global-buyers-turn-safe-assets-turbulent-times.html/

Russian Gold exports account for 7% of total exports at just under $2 billion per month. Russian Gold accounts for 8% of global gold production.

Inevitably the Russians will find a way around sanctions however it is not unreasonable to suggest that gold supply globally will be impacted by the situation in Ukraine possibly through an increased demand for holders of the metal within Russia itself.

It's good to see the boss spending his own money on some shares.

I've bought a few here as it looks interesting and I'm trying to learn more.

Parys looks like a genuine prospect albeit a few years away from being a mine. The Swedish project was what swayed me to buy here. If that can be reactivated holders will have a big pay day.

Watching what is going on with Ukraine one suspects that Russian metals exports could be blocked out of some markets for a significant time- they are big exporters of Copper, Iron, Nickel, Aluminium and Gold. Presumably the Chinese will carry on buying but with demand for copper in particular on the upswing and the need for more European resources to be developed to green metals production and create more self reliance in place of Russian suppliers we could see the wind in our sails here soon particularly as the fundamentals start to move in our favour.

GLA DYOR