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typo line 5 " the SP rose from about 400p to about 1240"....sorry!

Having not visited this board for some time and recently skim read the last few weeks posts I note the regular reference to the return of dividends asa harbinger of SP rises. As someone who held RR through the 2009-2019 decade I feel the need to pointout that RR has always been both a reluctant and ungenerous divi payer.While betweeen 2009and 2014 the SP rose from ~40p to about 1240p that growth was not accompanied by significant divi payments,instead the company issued "C" shares at the rate of dozens per each "A" share held BUT valued at a small fractions of a penny. Holders were required to sell the "C" shares if they wanted a cash return on their holdings . Without going in to the details the scheme had various tax advantages for RR and disadvantages for shareholders.
I doubt the return to such a system but fully expect RR to issue small or non- existent divis for some time to come and holders must accept that SP apprreciation is the only reason to hold here.
Those who are sufficiently interested to dig deeper are referred to this table

https://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/investors/c-share-historical-information-july-2019.pdf

Brief study will show that the cash return on RR shares remained miniscule even while the SP trebled.

I'v e just come back from Vancouver (this years chosen spot for the family based in Sydney and Singapore and UK to have our pre-xmas get together) and while the guys were skiing and the girls hit the malls, I was wandering and watching stuff.
OK I'll get to the point , Vancouver is a typical modern city and it has all the criteria of such, major road networks busy with traffic, shopping malls , mega food shops, lots of foot traffic..... , so I thought I'd do a bit of research and this is what I learned.
Over 56%(and growing by 1-2% pa )of the worlds population now lives in a city.
Very few of them own a car
The average weekly shop in the developed world costs 150-200$ and weighs >10kilos
I spent an hour or so in the local Safeway , a mega sized food shop and one of canada's biggest chains.
As in the UK there were dozens of staff pushing carts with 8 shopping baskets on them loading delivery orders from shelves, in conversation they said they had an hour to load 8 baskets and they were paid 18-20$ per hour ie the direct labour cost of each basket is 2.50$ (given employers additional costs it's probably more like 3-3.50$)
the average basket size is about 150$ and safeways profit margins are low see this from a local news outlet, Moosejaw today (honest!)

"For Sobeys/Safeway, the profit margin on sales ranged from . 07 per cent in 2018 to 2.48 percent in 2021, averaging 1.77 per cent. For the current year in the first six months, Loblaws{another N America chain} showed 3.4 per cent profits on revenues. Sobeys/Safeway had 2.62 per cent profit on revenues.8 Nov 2022."
So it doesn't take a genius to see that they are probably losing money on each basket.
Using my business card (I set up a boutique investment company a few years ago so that I could operate as a Family Fund) I wangled an interview with the store manager who among other things said "delivery is the way to go - everybody is doing it but almost none making a profit- but we have no choice, we have to offer it and wait 'till market saturation reaches the point at which it is profitable....."
I continue to hold OCDO.....

see this quote from the FT :
"GMB Union “reluctantly accepted” an improved pay increase of 8 per cent from DS Smith"
It may be a mere coincidence that SMDS also announced the closure of a Kent factory and MR said
“The other parts of [DS Smith] are subsidising the UK. And that can’t go on forever,” said Roberts, adding some of its UK factories are now lossmaking."
The company is now more internationally focused and more profitable.

....for this share so I'm buying!!I held VOD way back in the 90's and watched the price rise beyond all reasonable levels and then buy Mannesman in perhaps the worst takeover of all time, at which point I sold having made 400%+. I have not held since until now , buying at just below 89p.i may lose money nd the Sp may in all probability fll from here , but it is my view that revenues will carry on at stable levels and the enormous debt can be managed until rates begin to fall again(early next year). I have the patience to hold for at least two years and even if VOd is reduced to selling off parts of its empire , i fully expect the Sp to recove from its currently ovesold position.Apols for the typo's, i'm at heathrow, sans spellcheck and hoping my luggage was on the same plane as me from Vancouver!!

Should have said that they are expecting the Ukraine situation to drag on for months, possibly years.

Currently in Vancouver and the N American view is that Biden's release of the SPR with the sole objective of swinging mid- term results has worked.BUT the US will now seek to replenish and they don't have enough financial incentive to drill more fracking wells while borrowing costs are high so they are pushing OPEC to raise output. It looks like Saudis may comply. The general view here is that we have another year of high ($80-120 prices)whatever the Ukraine situation is. Strong belief that there is a lot of relabelling going on in oil cargoes, lots of ship-ship transfers and many countries complicit in repackaging Russian oil.The N American general distrust of European government's commitment to fight Russia militarily or economically is widespread. They fear that a cold winter would shatter resolve and that Putin is banking on that to wear down western commitment to support Ukraine.They are buying oilcos.

Chilting , one point to remember is that many shorts are leveraged, they borrow on credit and hope for a short-term profit, a study of short positions shows that they are often held for no more than weeks or maybe a few months, as credit cost rise with interest rates the cost of time grows and hence the temptation to cut losses. (see the book "The price of time " by Edward Chancellor for a fascinating account of the phenomenon)

Not now but I can imagine a scenario in which MKs would buy out OCDO's stake in the JV . They bought a 50% stake at £750 mill(with targets hit)and a £500 mill down payment in 2019 see

https://www.investegate.co.uk/marks---38--spencer-grp--mks-/rns/m-s-and-ocado-announce-new-joint-venture/201902270700062430R/

They may still have to pay some of the committed £190 mill if those targets are fully hit (tho' looking unlikely.
Rumours of MKs buying out the rest of the JV come up now and again see
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/reports-ms-raising-ocado-retail-stake-are-pure-speculation-ocado-cfo-2021-12-14/

I expect such a transaction to occur eventually but now is perhaps not the time, 'cos I guess MKS don't want to raise more cash through the markets and OCDO know that the value of the JV is at a low point.

Walts I have never been invested here but popped up recently to warn investors of the dire circumstances.Looking for Joules accounts I find a disturbing lack of reporting and exceptional vagueness in stock exchange communications ( a big red light IMV). However from the last reliable data I have discovered (February's interims) I see that joules had assets of £190 mill and liabilities of £140mill, on the surface not too bad BUT those assets include £61 mill inventory(now in a distressed situation worth far less), £30 mill of goodwill and intangibles and right of Use assets of £28mill. If you look up those latter two categories you will find that they are accounting conventions rather than real cash assets. SO in reality Joules' liabilities will far exceed any tangible assets on which they can raise money. They are effectively broke , indeed even creditors way above shareholders in the queue will get nothing.

While there was no detail in the Autumn statement re the relaxation of the current solvency2 regime , the documents now published and is here
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1118359/Consultation_Response_-_Review_of_Solvency_II_.pdf
A quick scan suggests that the proposals I mentioned yesterday are to be introduced to allow investments in infrastructure projects, to ease reporting for minor portfolio adjustments, to introduce a finer grading of risk assessment and to simplify procedures.
Once digested and implemented I expect it to be positive for insurers and for the funding of large-scale infrastructure projects in the UK by Uk-based pension funds and their agents (ie LGEN).

I'll be amazed if there isn't some variation on a windfall tax on both oil producers and energy suppliers. If this current gov. has learnt anything it must be that there is a general acceptance that revenue must be raised and that those are the obvious candidates, I am positioned to buy if, as I suspect, there is a sharp negative SP reaction to that news. IMV markets are still very sensitive and nervous and those like me who are willing to pick up stock on initial potential over-reaction will profit as/when a recovery, even if mild, takes place.
I will watch Shel/ Centrica/JWG/SSE .......also maybe a bit of fixed interest if the bond markets throw another wobbly(unlikely tho').

Joules is a parrot,

Courtesy of Monty Python:

C: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

O: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.

C: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

O: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!

C: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

See this from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/britains-insurers-become-test-case-post-brexit-unshackling-2022-11-16/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=global-investor&utm_term=Reuters%20Global%20Investor%20-%202021%20-%20Master%20List

While I suspect that we won't hear anything concrete about this tomorrow (two "budget-induced market panics "would be catastrophic) I do think progress in freeing up the enormous amounts of capital tied up by the EU's solvency rules is coming , to some degree and in the not too distant future. If/when it does the freedoms will allow LGEN and others to make better long-term use of the significant capital stocks they hold they hold and to generate better returns than the low/medium single figures available from present options. The UK's recent history is littered with examples of foreign entities with more capital allocation freedom, funding, buying and benefitting from the revenue streams from real estate, roads, airports, railways and utility suppliers.I will hold here in the expectation that changes will eventually be made.

Key points :
The last couple of years have been about positioning for the migration to a cloud-based service(provided by the Microsoft Azure product- for which incidentally one of my kids was until recently a consultant seller ). The major costs incurred by the transitioning planning/execution are behind us and the migration is going very well.
Market rationalisation (ie exiting some low-growth markets, is almost complete) and the focus on English-speaking markets is providing rapid, profitable growth - North America up 40%, that market is less affected by oil costs and is a tight labour market and rapidly growing labour cost hence the need for automation of systems. Sage expect continued good progress.Also growing strongly in France and Germany
In response to questions, no recent drop off in growth, the last four quarters all ~3.5% - 4%
Forward guidance strong, and many customers now cloud-based are enquiring about additional services. Many SMB's with manual systems seeking to automate to cut rapidly growing labour costs.
The atmosphere was very positive from both company and analysts , IMV another year (or more ) of strong growth in prospect, forward guidance unchanged, expect a number of analysts upgrades, I will be adding.

I've just come off this morning's call and it was strikingly positive, as borne out by today's SP bounce. Got stuff to do but will post some details later, all in all very good set of results and very positive forward guidance.

Addendum - while typing my sub £8 limit buy was hit!I am becoming a day trader!

I too sold a chunk ~33% of my holding yesterday at 876p BUT that does not mean I have doubts about OCDO's medium-term prospects, merely that (for the third time this year ) I have cashed out a 30% + profit, yesterday's was actually about 50% (achieved in a few weeks!!)above my current average. I have said on this board and others that I am by nature a LTH. , however, in today's volatile markets it is ,IMV, wise to pocket cash when on offer. My belief is the enormous influence of trackers ETF's and HFT shops is creating extreme volatility. I have been an investor for almost 30 years and find that going with the flow ,buying low and selling high is working and that same volatility is offering sharp short-term profits for the sensible .Whether this situation is transitory and merely a reflection of higher than usual market stresses remains to be seen , in the meantime I have, to some degree, abandoned some of the principles by which I have operated for many years.

See this for where shareholders stand in a liquidation, which this is pretty certain to be,

https://harperjames.co.uk/article/who-gets-paid-first-in-insolvency/#:~:text=In%20liquidation%2C%20creditors%20are%20paid,Expenses%20of%20the%20insolvent%20estate
scroll down to "WHO GETS PAID FIRST......

There is no benefit to prospective buyers in rescuing the company as it is, the brand name, assets... may be saved, or as with Made.com only the brand. Whatever the outcome shareholders still invested must assume a zero value for their shares.

HI smasher, my assumption is that the workforce~100k? is fairly evenly spread over the age groups , so let's say minimum age 25? maximum 60+. I that is true then each year there are about 2000 or more reaching retirement age. If they are not replaced then the workforce dwindles by that number, so BT does not need redundancy programmes or early retirement to manage numbers down. Does your knowledge offer a different picture?