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I like low necklines and high hemlines......as an investment metric of course!!

Results about as bad as could be predicted but IMV, the worst is, if not over, at least discounted. That said I have no idea what the market response will be , we seem to live in times where hysteria abounds in both directions. I have been accumulating here over the last few months in the belief that, at some point in the not-too -distant future, the SP will be significantly higher.If the SP tanks today I will add, I am a long-term holder by nature and PSN represents a significant recovery prospect as interest rates fall, housing availability recovers, higher wage settlements come through and the mini UK population boom continues.....

Badland you really have to be nice to NTC .. why ? because it's

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/international-cat-day-2023-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-day-4279003

tomorrow, you can take the p**s as much as you like.

I know there is, for obvious reasons,a considerable interest in shorting on this board and while I have offered a few comments to explain some things , I've just noticed something I wasn't aware of which I think complicates things even further. Those of you who regularly follow this :

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=Ocado%20Group%20plc&land=united_kingdom

might care to glance at the entry for Blackrocks " start price"now I have always assumed it meant what it said, ie the initial price at which Blackrock OPENED a short BUT as you can see, it now appears to be showing the price at which Blackrock recently ADDED to their short . It may be an error and I will keep tabs , but what it does do is make the losses on the short apear much less than they really are 'cos we all know that Blackrock have had an open short position since the OCDO price was much lower.Anybody noticed whether other short positions have been described similarly?

Sorry nettles,(to indulge your juvenile fantasy) during September and October last year RR traded at below 70p and closed below that price on several days.Thats less than a year ago ....

I don't hold here so if you choose to see my input as irrelevant , feel free. Nevertheless, as a former holder of both GSK and ULVR I watch this space and I thought I could add some helpful comment on prospects here. The latest figures are broadly positive, revenues up ~10% BUT most of that is price increases and there is less scope for further increases as inflation starts to level out ,margins were in fact down 22%and free cash was ~£370 million .

The problems with which Haleon was saddled at birth still loom large, a huge slew of debt which at the present level of income will be with the company for several years, and two major investors in GSK and Pfizer committed to selling their holdings which are about 50% of the equity . GSK's sale in May at 335p effectively puts a cap on the SP , it is a reasonable assumption that either GSK or Pfizer will unload if/when the SP hits that number again, and exceeding it is highly improbable for the foreseeable future. Additionally I learn that both companies are trying to pressure HLN to indemnify them against any costs arising out of the Zantac litigation . IMV that is an appalling abdication of responsibility by both boards and lowers my already poor opinion of Emma Walmsley.

It seems that HLN are trying to fund debt reduction by selling off some of their brands, yesterday's Times mentions Nicotinell and ChapStick. So in summary, I don't see HLN's SP moving up much and I see little prospect of significant divis for a significant time.

I don't do investment advice , so draw your own conclusions.

See this chart

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=SYM:NMQ

no comment necessary!

I've sold today, having built up s take in the low 600's almost a year ago , and despite a good product ,well marketed and well supported,I have been somewhat amazed at the SP rise since then .My decision is primarily because I am risk averse and profit -oriented and feel that with a P/E of somewhere between 30 and 40 and a MC of almost £10 bill, the SP has got a good bit ahead of reality. I expect good figures for this year and excellent progress to be maintained but cannot see justification for significant SP rises from here. If I leave profits on the table then so be it , I wish continued holders good luck.

See

https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2023/07/31/billionaire-behind-walmarts-warehouse-robots-gains-more-than-7-billion-in-a-day/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailydozen&cdlcid=5d1670d61802c8c524d45722§ion=facts

The site is paywalled but you normally get to read at least one article before being locked out.

The article features what, I guess may be OCDO's major competitor and as usual In the US valued at way more than OCDO. Also worth noting is that one of their customers is Albertsons, the subject of Krogers takeover bid.

Waccy ..... they don't have to " buy back shares " They already own £350 millions worth.....so they are only sacrificing a bit of their profits, heads they win, tails they..........win!

Update I've just been retracing the background to the insurance claim and I think I've found why the SP has cratered today. Imay be wrong because I've only spent an hour or so and there may be much more detail out there but it looks as though there were expectations that GRG's claim would pay out much more than the £16m shown in today's RNS see

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2022/10/greggs-wins-150m-high-court-covid/

this article suggested the claim was for £150 mill.

I've been out of touch for much of the summer in darkest France with limited Internet access, but I haven't until today seen the figure of £16 million quoted and that's a long way from previous assumptions, so even though GRG's business numbers are good it may be that a much bigger insurance payout was being factored in by analysts.

Anybody care to add anything they know?

I've added today on the drop, which is, as is becoming common, an overreaction to sound results.Growth is still brisk, LFL up 16%, PTP up 14%, and expansion plans are on track. Divi is modest at 2.5% but more than twice covered. The figures were flattered by the insurance win which adds a one-off £16mill to the half-year earnings. I plan to hold here for a while even though at 22X the P/E is high, and somewhat anticipates the rapid growth the company is planning.

My exit point is ~£30 and I expect/hope to see that in the next year or so.

A big piece in the FT today

https://www.ft.com/content/3e0322ee-276b-45e5-8aef-76ce951fda14

For those without access, it says roughly, Drahis right-hand man is embroiled in a potential fraud based on channeling contracts through friends to rake off a percentage. If Drahi knew he's in trouble , if he didn't he's out of touch , so pretty damning either way. It also re-iterates the concerns about Drahi's debt pile and the costs of servicing it as interest rates rise.

While it may blow over there is always the chance that in order to address problems elsewhere Drahi may become a forced seller of his BT holding, and as we all know (don' t we?) a forced seller of a big wedge of stock is not conducive to a strong SP. May explain recent SP weakness

Retireguy I keep on making the point that shorts often have a function other than the obvious intention to make money as a SP falls. In BlackRock's case, it is "portfolio insurance". They hold 5% of OCDO stock long, worth at the mo. about £350 million. They know from experience that OCDO is volatile , so being sensible, they hold 1% Of OCDO "short" so that any short-term loss on their long holding is partially compensated by a gain on the short.

This also explains why , when OCDO rises sharply, they may increase their short, not because their conviction of the SP falling increases, but because the risk attaching to their "long" does.

There is NO chance of a bid for BT which places it at greater risk of interference from agencies external to the UK being approved. We are already in a hybrid war with China, Russia, North Korea... and a whole host of international rogue groups who engage in hacking and electronic blackmail. Cyber warfare is with us every day, even a cursory following of the news makes that obvious. No UK government of any colour will risk compromising our electronic connectivity by allowing control beyond these shores.

BT's fortunes depend upon a successful rollout of fibre, the reduction in costs it will bring and the long-term financial opportunity presented by an oligopoly supply of rapidly growing demands on connectivity.

That's not to say that there is the certainty of massive profits , an incoming labour government might exert price pressures on suppliers of energy, water, and telecoms as a vote-winner and Ofcom has repeatedly shown its ineptitude. Nonetheless, IMV there are better times here for the patient, I hold and will continue to do so even as I trim holdings and take profits elsewhere.

Just to say that I am cashing out here having held at an average of ~70p since buying just before the RI a couple of years ago. While I know that the more outlandish price targets here are nonsense (£7 ???) I do feel that there is more to go here but my lifetime habit of pocketing significant profits is hard to break. I am confident that RR's major income stream based on air miles-related engine servicing is almost back to pre-pandemic normal, though futuristic forays into SMR's , "green" Aviation fuel and the like have both time delay and implementation risk. The future here is at worst stable at best promising. However, RR has had a long history under various managements of failure to grasp prizes when in reach and hence I'm taking my profits while they are on the table. I suspect that the SP is at or near a short-term plateau, nevertheless I wish all longer-term holders well .

Boyo.... while I'm not a convinced chart follower my analysis based on "best guess" is similar. My view has been for some time that if/when OCDO has fully rolled out all the CFC's in the pipeline and assuming that many of the contracts are based on a lowish single figure percentage share of sales(NOT profits)then OCDO's revenues could be > £ 1billion pa and thus could justify a market cap of £ 10 bill+. That indicates an SP around 50% higher than now. BUT , that ignores any major changes in the world economy, falls in interest rates to more (recently) normal levels, execution errors and the absence of any other unknown unknowns. So like you, I have now taken some of my chips off the table, I still hold but at only 40% of my previous level and am happy to bank a profit here for the fifth time in under three years . It is by some way my most lucrative investment(punt?) in that time. I am also taking profits elsewhere and moving cash to other more stable interest-earning positions, not because I think a market crash is coming, but rather because my personal circumstances are now best suited by lower-risk investments, into which category OCDO does not fit!!

GLA all who continue to hold (including me!)

Robo yeah that's right - Shorteurope has a problem with its decimal points and remember that Blackrock is long 5% of OCDO stock so their short position is portfolio insurance, overall they will be up substantially in the last few days.

Phoenixy..... read my past posts here - I do my best to offer useful info and declare my positions AT THE TIME I take them, setting out my investing logic, I hold here and the evidence for that is visible. To that end I will report that I have sold 30% of my holding here into the latest rise at a substantial profit, Tho' I still hold a four-figure number. I have learned that taking profits, even if it means foregoing potential greater profits in the future is a sound strategy. Had you bothered to review my past posts you would see that I have been at various times profitably long here and I am again.

I also feel the need to call out posters whose posts are inconsistent, inaccurate, and TBH, probably untruthful, so that others are not unduly influenced by them. A brief review of your posts showed such inconsistency of view, with misplaced gloom followed by equally improbable optimism.

I leave the board to you to reply, I will not, as I do not engage in long-running squabbles.

best wishes .

Phoenixy.......

" OMG! My average is 720p and at this speed might breakeven this week...lol"

Your post of 1 Nov 2022

"I was scared when I bought initially around 400p with all the doom and gloom, some are scared now buying around these levels..."

your post today

Need I say more ?