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If the deal for UBS to buy credit Suisse goes through it will (IMV) take only a day or two to unravel, tying a millstone to a sound boat means both sink. It also requires a change to Swiss law to prevent shareholders from voting against , a hammer blow to the concept of shareholding everywhere and likely to lead to otherwise sound institutions coming under pressure , after all would you hold bank shares if you thought they could be sold away from you without a vote?And that doesn't specifically apply to PI's ,it applies to funds with billions tied up in finance stocks. I suspect that tomorrow UBS stock (if allowed to trade ) will tank and many other banking stocks will be hammered .I know of guys who are already lining up to short CS and buy UBS CDS's as they rocket.The market will kill this deal, within hours and I think the Swiss authorities will be forced to let CS collpas rather than destroy both of their banks.
I don't hold LL at the mo and its too late to sell if you do hold, the damage in the UK will IMV be short-term but severe and holders need strong nerves , for my part at sub 40/35/30? I will risk a buy ...

Hi slider, you should remind your friend that outside of an ISA her divi income would be taxable, depending on her circumstances but likely to be the ( total of divis -£1000) so on your figures £3843 X 20% ie about £768in tax EVERY YEAR. If she opens an isa and deposits £20k in it before 6 April (even if she doesn't immediately invest ) then the return on that £20k is tax free, she could then invest another £20k again immediately in the new tax year ie on or after 7 April and would have £40k of her lump sum tax protected for ever (or at least until a government changes the rules, tho' that IMV is very unlikely.
Keep asking questions, ass you can see, I and others are willing to clarify any issues, though of course the decisions are for you and your lady friend. Good luck .

Hi Crossley, I'm fine thanks , just got back from a couple of months in the Atlantic Ocean, Arrecife to Grenada, in my boat in balmy weather , flew back on Friday delayed by the plane being de-iced in the UK!!, arrived late to find heavy snow at home!! almost adjusted to the thermal shock, trust all here have survived the winter, warm and wealthy!!!

between banks and insurers is this:
A bank may , if customers panic, be subject to a "run" when many of the customers ask for their money back in a short period of time. Because banks have transferred those deposits into other, often illiquid assets (loans, bonds, shares,.......) they may, although they are solvent, not have enough liquid assets to meet demand . Result problems....

Insurance companies' business is such that they take premiums from customers which they invest in a similar fashion, and hold enough liquid reserves which they expect to meet the normal flow of insurance claims. There is essentially no circumstance in which a flood of claims can arrive in the same way as a bank run, even if you doubt your insurers solvency "inventing" a claim is a criminal action...... and so, there is no recourse to a quick withdrawal of funds.
As I have said here before LGEN and other insurers SP varies quite sharply with the movements in the FTSE because the SHORT-TERM value of their assets changes, even though the longer-term stability is essentially unaffected. I hold with no qualms!!

A quick glance at last year's AR shows total capex for the year of £5.2 bill. (of which Openreach is £2.2bill) assuming all/much of this can be "expensed " ie no capital gains to be paid on infrastructure spend that might halve the £689 mill BT show as their estimate of this years tax bill. If BT accountants and management utilise this easement sensibly it may be worth 10%+ on net income.

I've added at 2300p, will hold happy in the knowledge that short- term crises are just that ... short term. The world still needs oil and it's derivatives for decades yet.

Todays SP move is really not a big deal despite the 100+ posts, anybody who is a serious investor needs to recognise that no share rises (or falls ) in a straight line. I have been out of the country for some months and during that time to my surprise, my limit sales of 25% of my holdings each at 140 and 160 were both hit (to realise a 100% profit) so I'm down to 50%of my original holding , but will be taking any opportunity to add at lower levels as I am confident that RR has still a good deal of upside from here. whether the bounce back is tomorrow or next week or even next year it will come , RR' has turned the corner and absent any further geopolitical or pandemic events I expect to see it higher in due course, so I would respectfully suggest that you all chill........

I have sold half of my current holding acquired at a ~ 520p ave this am , not because my confidence here is dented(I still hold a significant number) but because I am going to be, literally, all at sea for many weeks and unable to respond to the sharp SP moves which now seem to typify this share, and banking profits has become my new mantra in this dynamically unstable investing world in which OCDO's volatilty is extreme(this is the fourth 40/50% move up in less than a year!)
I shan't be posting for a while but wish you all, whether positively or negatively inclined, a succesful investing year, and for long term holders (which I remain) a positive news flow,
'bye for a while.

I don't do predictions,'cos no-one can know with any certainty what is likely to happen, nevermind what unforeseen events may occur, BUT I do expect POO to remain elevated for most of this year, I cannot see the Ukraine situation being resolved any time soon and even if it is, Russia's oil is unlikely to find a market in the west for years to come, so as they produce about 10% of the worlds supply, even if it is all sold at sub-market prices to China/India its availability will not count as part of world supply and will not IMV affect world prices, hence I see POO and Shel SP remaining firm for some considerable time, I will hold and add on weakness.
My boring old-fashioned folio had a comparatively good year last year and I expect the same this year, Shel, IMB,and SMDS all did well for me, with timely, profitable exits from BT and GSK early in the year, a good divi revenue and value-oriented ETFs earning me a decent positive return . I wish those, who like me, invest here and in boring stocks held long-term a good investing year, you won't be hearing from me much for a while as I am off to spend the rest of the winter in warmer climes, happy new year to all!

Worth noting that much of China's air travel is internal (it's a big country). In 2021 internal Chinese flights accounted for 18.9% of the world's total (cf US where internal travel constituted 24%).

The reopening of China to travel both in-country and internationally is the crucial condition needed by RR for a significant SP recovery. As I stated a few days ago, civil aerospace is RR's largest and (normally) most stable revenue stream worth up to £ 8 bill. per annum. This article, a link to which I posted recently, shows the impact China's travel and airline capacity has on worldwide totals :
https://www.oag.com/blog/airline-capacity-2019-2022-travel-recovery
China is second only to the US in seat capacity and its reopening will (assuming it happens and continues) is worth IMV 20-30% on the RR SP over the next few months.

Just read a piece in today's WSJ which reminded me of my conversations in Vancouver lately. It attributes a loss for the year by bricks and mortar retailers to "shrinkage" a euphemism for theft, costing them collectively $49.5 billion. Another of the many benefits to food retailers is that stealing while taking a delivery is pretty difficult.
The same point was made to me by the store manager I chatted to who bemoaned the losses from self- checkouts ," Grab and run" theft and even armed robberies of the alcohol sections of N American stores .He was seeking to employ extra security at significant cost .
More of the benefits of and reasons why the next decade will see near- universal adoption of food delivery.

check my previous post - I bought first at just sub 89p and have bought again at ~85 and at 84. Add 89+85+84 =258/3 =86 !!!
Wow, it adds up!

Hi, I posted briefly here a couple of weeks ago on buying in . I have since added and now hold at an ~ 86p average.
This post aims to set out why.
First and foremost my investment aims are modest - an annual 'folio growth of CPI +10% (tho' that's obviously hard for this year and I won't achieve it for only the fourth time in 30+years).
To meet my targets I invest primarily in ETF's, funds(mostly bonds) and large companies both here and in the US.I hold about 40 positions which I intend to hold indefinitely , but that may mean anything from a few months to a few years.
I also seek to generate a significant part of my returns from dividends and eg for this year that will come out at about 5.5% of my total folio value.
Finally I, like most of us, aim to buy low and sell high - obvious but not always easy.
So VOD has been on my radar for some time, five years ago the SP was 220p,only six months ago it was 130p.
I now judge the likelihood of substantail falls from here as low and of a recovery as high.
Ok you'll all be saying but why should VOD recover , well IMV much of the recent fall is directly attributable to external factors affecting the economy of the UK and other countries in which VOD operates , Covid, the war in Ukraine, high inflation, rising interest rates......IMV all of these factors either have passed or will pass and/or the world will adjust .
Perhaps the two key factors are whether VOD's customers can afford to pay for their services and whether VOD's resulting revenues are sufficient to manage the debt position. My view is that mobile connectivity in all it's forms is now seen by pretty much everyone in the developed world (and many in the less developed world) as an essential of modern life and is therefore almost as price insensitive as food and shelter, so I have little fear of revenue attrition. Can VOD meet its debt liabilites? - Yes, those liabilies are substantial (about 3 bill euros per annum) , but the average WACC is 3.4%(well below inflation) and the term of the bonds is from 2022 out as far as 2059(coupons range from <1% to 7.875%), so there is a long time available to pay and VOD's prices, which are index linked, mean that revenues will continue to rise faster than repayments .If VOD had any doubts in this area I cannot imagine it would have embarked on a £580 mill. share buyback.Additionally, I am pretty sure that the sum of VOD's parts is worth a good deal more than its current MC and , in extremis , sales of some of the less core businesses can be effected, and maybe even if no undue financial pressures emerge, an easy win for a new management structure would be to rationalise.
I shall hold confident in a decent return over the next few years.

Those of you who have read my posts on here (how wise!) will know that I regard airline travel capacity as one of the key variables affecting the RR SP.While the post-Covid recovery is most definitely happening the following link shows that the mega markets , North America, Westen Europe and North east asia(ie mostly China) still have some way to go.
https://www.oag.com/blog/airline-capacity-2019-2022-travel-recovery
see table:
Scheduled Capacity by Region 2019 - 2022
Recent events in China suggest that the near 30% shortfall for each of the last three years may not be made up next year , and broadly I don't expect RR's major revenue stream ,(civil aero) to reach the ~£8bill of 2019 until 2023/4. nevertheless a figure approaching £6 bill for this year and maybe £7bill next year is encouragingand SP positive. I hold/add

Value: As far as I can tell, Kroger does not split out how much of the sales are online. Their last accounts do reveal that total sales will probably exceed $150 billion this year ($113bill at the third quarter). Those third-quarter figures also quote online sales growing at 34% Y-on-Y, a figure which can be maintained or increased over the next few years as the biul-out continues, as we know Kroger is currently contractually committed to 11 CFC's and have identified a further 3 regions where they are looking for a site, there is no sign of them slowing down their rollout.
As a thought experiment, I have calculated that if online sales, whether from CFC's or instore fulfilled reach 10% of the total, (not unreasonable?) that will be a revenue stream (at the 4% figure revealed in the last presentation)of $600 million pa to Ocado. Given Ocado's current market cap of a little over £5 bill, Kroger (MC $ 31 bill) could take them out at a 30% premium with a notional 10% pa return on investment. Likely ? I don't know but IMV gives a signal of the NPV of the Kroger /Ocado link-up.

Expat..... just to be clear the equinox deal is about bulk pricing for wholesale service to other businesses and has little or no relevance to customer pricing, where competition should reign. It's my understanding that BT's scale, now and in the future means that they are pretty much the only carrier in a position to make an equinox-type offer.

While BT's action could clearly be seen as "predatory pricing"ie lower the price, destroy the competition and then jack prices up when you are a (near) monopoly, I doubt that there is any likelihood of it being challenged/prevented by Ofcom or Gov. As said below who is going to argue for higher prices in the current climate .Additionally, as I have posted before the concept of multiple suppliers of a utility to homes is nonsense, we don't have multiple water supplies or electricity or drainage to all UK households why on earth should the UK spend billions on cabling every house multiple times???
I expect a minor outcry from BT's competitors, the likelihood of at least one competitor signing up (and hence saving the costs of their own fibre, maybe even contributing some cash for the joint enterprise?)
As the markets appear to be showing, this is a tactically astute move and will simplify the fibre field at a significant benefit to BT in the medium term , I will hold/add.

I have on a number of occasions on various boards on this site made the point that very few shorts are "naked", they are often used to hedge long positions(whether stock or debt)in the shorted company, as part of a long/short"pair trade" with a similar competing company, in situations where rights issues , bond issues or forced disposals create anxiety and SP pressure or as part of complex "quant" strategies based on upcoming news on interest rates, inflation, exchange rates .......
There are a few companies which specialise in shorting who believe that their research has uncovered something the markets don't know and who then, of course, publish to seek to "prove " their negative evidence and drive the price down .
In the case of Ocado the long grind down, accompanied by the crises of the last couple of years has made shorting here(and in many other companies) a profitable bet, I suspect that this may no longer be true unless/until the SP has risen some considerable way from here.
For the record I have absolutely no problem with shorters, they serve a useful purpose, are entitled to make money any legal way they can and often provide a sobering counter to the misplaced euphoria of investors both institutional and private.

Daz.....no, as a normal shareholder for some years,I acquired many thousands of "c" shares worth fractions of a penny which I accumulated, then sold, incurring dealing charges. The revenue they produced was a tiny fraction of the cap app of the "a" shares.IMV RR will over the next few years return to being an SP growth company and not a significant divi payer, I plan(hope) to hold for a 100%+ SP rise over the next 2/3 years!