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At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.

At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.

At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.

At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.

Asp. The trouble is that LLOY has remained a bargain buy for 7 years. It's hard to see what change of circumstance will change that. It was a bargain in 2020 and maybe again , but at the mo. of the profits of £5.6 bn, £2bn are retained and the rest is used for a divi of 2.4p and a share buyback which has reduced the shares in issue by 10% over five years. That isn't going to set the world or the SP alight.

Asperger, a great bit of research which tells us almost completely why LLOY SP has gone nowhere (except down) in the period under review.

Your figures show that the shares in issues over the period 2007 to date have multiplied by TWELVE TIMES , thus the market cap currently £30 billion is shared between 12X as many shares . If the shares in issue had remained the same as in 2007, each share would be worth 48pX12 =576p.

ALL of LLOY'S growth for 16 years (profits in 2007 £3.9 bn , profits in 2022 £5.6 bn)is dwarfed by the much greater growth in shares in issue. A large part of that is down to the rescue rights issues in 2009, when it became clear that the T/O of HBOS had turned out to be a disaster. Still, at present rates of share buybacks, it'll only take another 17 years to get back to the glory days of 2007 and an SP of nearly 300p!!

HI OR trust you are well.

AAL's decision to look at selling a stake in Woodsmith fits with their recent moves to trim capex generally. From their latest RNS see

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/anglo-american-performance-update/16243722

The figures show an expected capex (even after reductions)of $22bn over the next four years which is approx twice their likely profit for the period, so some sort of compromise was clearly necessary. A total divestment of some assets or a buy-in and Woodsmith, with still significant development costs(latest est. $9 Bill., over three times the last SXX est.!!)is an obvious candidate . As you say, it is a sacrifice of profits expected over many years of the mine's production but maybe needs must?

My limit sell at 2000 which I put on 30% of my recently acquired holding has just been hit, several months before I expected it, returning a tad over 20%

I normally set a range of sells for parts of my holdings 'cos I'm out of the country and out of contact for most of Jan- mar. That a major FTSE 100 company can bounce down 30% and back up 20% in a matter of a dozen trading days shows how absolutely manic the markets currently are. However, it does allow shrewd investors to apply a rational view and make short-term profits. that's not normally my thing , but when the opportunity presents it's sensible to take advantage.

I still think AAL has some way forward to go from here, maybe with pullbacks along the way and will hold or even add if we see a 10%+ retrench. Long term I see no reason not to expect a significant , slow return to much higher levels as the need for extracted metals isn't going away.

Poly 4 Is being sold, but only from the Boulby mine up the road, owned by an Israeli company. On present estimates, AAL won't be extracting Poly in saleable quantities for several years.

While I think a T/O of AAL is unlikely, it is not impossible, the recent SP fall knocked almost £10 bill off the MC (which shows how ludicrously fragile the markets are) and when compared to BHP (MC £250bn ) and RIO (MC £95 bn) AA is a relative tiddler. However, though my thesis is that AA will recover most of the recent overdone fall, it may well have woken the bigger boys up to an opportunity. Having built up a position at just below £17 (at which level a maintained divi would be just over 6%)I will happily hold for some time.

A sharp fall in inflation was announced this am, CPI is down from 4.6% to 3.9 %, which means that fixed interest. gilts , etc will rise adding significantly to LGENs asset base. The concerns expressed here and elsewhere about the fall in asset values are overdone. I have been adding at recent relatively low levels, and will now pause and watch the SP appreciate gently over the next few months.

I have said on a number of boards that the markets are now prone to severe overreaction to negative news. The reason is easy to see, trading volumes are low by historical standards and much of the day's trading is exercised by "bots ", trend following and trying to scrape fractions of a penny from short-term holds. As they all follow roughly the same inbuilt logic they all move in the same direction simultaneously. Anyone who like me is up before 7 and reads the RNS's can see that the result of this "bot" activity is evident in the short-term, inappropriate, wild oscillations, even of multi-billion dollar companies SP's.

In recent weeks the responses to news from DGE and RTO have followed the same pattern as AAL. IMV it is easier than it has ever been for a rational, non-panicking PI to buy good stocks at short-term discounts . . The hysteria here over the last few days has illustrated only that quite a few PI's just don't get it.

JDW intends to buy back 15% of its stock which at or around current prices will cost £152 mill., and in theory (though in practice the theory doesn't work - see endless pointless discussion on the LLOY board) would have the effect of raising the SP by a similar 15% proportion. In reality, since the 4 Dec the SP has risen by 10% , though IMV that may well be unrelated, more likely due to positive vibes about Xmas spending?

The other point is to note that the cost of buybacks (say £150 mill) is equivalent to almost 3 years of Pre-tax profits, so is it being financed in part by the agreed borrowing of £200 mill at 5.7% detailed in the prelims?

Whatever , I hold here and have said on a few occasions, will do so until £10 , I am revising that view and may well after Xmas checkout if the Sp reaches the £9 area.

FED has signalled likely rate cuts in the future, borrowing costs fall, equities rise,

Sorry typo in my previous post errant" 2" in MC figure

See

https://news.sky.com/story/apollo-plots-5bn-takeover-of-pension-insurance-corporation-13029452

APO is a $50+ bill US Private equity co, looking to take over a UK-based pension manager. At an MC of £124bill is LGEN too big to swallow?

Phoenixy

see

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1XZS820/

there is NO evidence of a rise in AA short interest.

See

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/britains-bae-systems-wins-88-billion-contract-to-continue-operating-tennessee-ammo-plant-3267608

{note the contract is for $8.8 bill not as shown in the link!!}

This contract represents a little under 5% of BAE's annual revenue but is a sign of the continued need for military kit which will not diminish in the medium-term future. I continue to hold.

I've bought in today and will add if the price goes lower. I originally took a few here,( largely in the expectation that the Woodsmith mine would be a money spinner, I still believe that to be likely) after the SXX collapse 3 years ago and held until the SP reached 3500 early last year. Coincidentally I am in the middle of reading Ed Conway's book "Material World" where he devotes a few pages to AA,s activities at Woodsmith.

I believe the fall to be wildly overdone, AA's actions in reducing spend are realistic and prudent and pundits seem to frequently forget that reduced expenditure drops straight through to the bottom line, unlike increased revenues.

I am happy to wait out any further falls in the SP and to take advantage of them to add. This is still a 20 billion pound company producing materials the world cannot live without. At the present MC, a halving of net income would still leave AA on a PE of around 10.

In other news,

1Greggs will be ordered to notify all customers of the price of a sausage roll in 2025.

2 Ofcom is well out in front in the race to be crowned stupidest regulator of the year.

3 Boris Johnson to take over as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

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