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Hi ash sorry misread your post .If you hold LGEN with different broker you can sell with your broker , take the cash and deposit it in the II ISA and buy within II ISA(though obviously trading costs and risk of short term price movements)

Hi Ash if you haven't already got an ISA account open one now with II, if you can't find the tag it's at the bottom left of your normal account page or search "Isa" Once you've got the account set up, do a " bed and ISA" which sells the shares in your ordinary account and buys the equivalent in your ISA account almost immediately(you may gain or lose a few quid depending on short term share price moves but it's generally not much.)

Thereafter do all your trading in your ISA account as everything there is tax free

Meco.... good analysis and it is good that you do the review process, we learn more from (and about)ourselves by analysis.

The other point I'd make is that fretting over a lost opportunity is natural, but nobody can predict tops and bottoms , if your failing is that you consistently make slightly less than the maximum possible profit from a position then you're doing OK.

For my part, I always mentally separate divis , ie revenue, from capital gains, if they're in an ISA (as they should be) there is no taxable difference but it also helps not to obscure bad investments from a cap. gain point of view.

See this from Kantar

https://www.kantar.com/uki/inspiration/fmcg/2024-wp-record-numbers-hit-the-shops-as-supermarkets-experience-busiest-christmas-since-2019

and this extract

"Spending at online-only retailer Ocado grew by 5.5%, though its share of the market held steady at 1.7%."

After a long thread which seems to have got nowhere I thought I'd offer a brief summary. IF LLOY sell the SW annuity book this is what happens.

As some of you will know annuities are a lifelong commitment to pay a sum to beneficiaries in return for a fixed amount paid up front.

The annuitant gets that fixed annual sum regardless of interest rates , inflation etc until death. The guarantor of the annuity gets a significant amount of capital with which they hope/expect to generate a return GREATER than the amount required to be paid out.

On that basis, LLOY shelled out £7bill in 2000 and, if reports are to be believed, are looking for a sum of £ 6bill to relieve themselves of the annuity guarantee.

Firstly, that demonstrates poor decision-making in 2000 and poor asset management since. the transfer of bulk annuities is currently booming because , even if temporary, higher interest rates are making the annuity business more profitable than for some years. It would therefore seem that LLOY are using this to unload a business at which they have evidently badly failed.

IF, the transaction is completed it is clear that LLOY will lose money, allowing for inflation compounding at say 2% over twenty years would suggest the value of the SW asset should be over £10 bill.

What the actual value of the transaction will be is confidential and we won't get to know until we try to disentangle the numbers in the AR following the completion , but as LLOY appear to have initiated the sale they are unlikely to make big profits from it and other WILL BE NO significant benefit to shareholders.

That is my take, expect a plethora of data-free posts from LTI rubbishing my analysis. I'm busy so won't be responding.

GLA

Hi Guys I've bought in here having last bought almost decade ago at 100p and selling (too soon and usual!) at ~300p.

Having examined the reasons behind the sharp fall in October and concluding that it is overdone and tho' I might have to wait 12/18 months, I believe there is a profit here.

Recent figs show that RTO has raised revenues steadily for the last 7 years and have more than doubled revs in that time. That said, they have not always managed to turn high revenues into large profits , their business is a low-margin one and IMV will remain so. It is also true that being a well- managed company with regular steadily rising profits led to a P/E in the 50's which was too high.

The last half-year results including the Itaconix figures mean the P/E is now back to the low 30's and while still IMV high, absent any sharp SP rise it will fall to the 20's or less with the next FY results.

The next FY results including the Terminix acquisition should show revs of over £5bn and a PBT of ~£700m.

While the strength of sterling against the dollar, if it persists, will be a drag, and the US housing market may take some time to recover , falling interest rates, first in the US and then the UK will stimulate housing, and reduce the burden of RTKs borrowings to fund the Terminix buy.

I am not expecting fireworks here and am happy to hold for some time, but I am confident that my average buy price of just a tad over 400p will be rewarded.

Perfectly valid question posed on this thread, for me the answer is that after thirty years of investing I know the FTSE's major companies well and can, almost every year (three exceptions in 30 years)hit my target of inflation +10%. That said, I hold more than half of my assets in funds which are heavily US-biased, ETFs (ditto), bonds and pref shares which don't appreciate much (but will this year) and make steady, reliable returns.

If anybody is wondering why after decades of profits I still invest it is because I've spent most of my returns!!!!

A little later than intended but here’s my view on the key investing matters this year and how I'm playing it.

NOTE this Is not investing advice.

So, backdrop this year will see the continued drift down in inflation, though IMV it will level out at somewhere between 2 and 4 % which is historically low when compared to all but the last 10/12 years. It is also clear that central banks in the US, UK and EU will start to lower IR’s towards the 2% target tho’ again IMV will almost certainly not get there this year. In the UK and the US forthcoming elections will encourage governments to introduce policies which benefit consumers and build a “feel good” factor. The UK will see tax reductions, policies to stimulate growth, spending, the leisure industries , housebuilding......The benefits of 10% pay rises will encourage spending on consumer goods, tech , holidays and I may be alone in seeing annual GDP growth in the UK of 1-2%.

On global matters we have two major conflicts affecting the world economy and I doubt that either will be resolved this year , even if they are, the move by major economies to spend on defense is now a given . The munitions provided to Ukraine and used by Israel will be replenished and many countries who have been lulled into a sense of comfort have had their illusions shattered , and will be arming themselves , think Germany and eastern Europe Japan?, Taiwan?

I also expect to see consolidation in media companies , telecoms, building, mining, oilco’s.

The net effect of the above will be for the FTSE to have a better year than for some time and my strategy is based on that .

In the last few months I have bought into or added defense companies BAE and CHG, I hold PSN , I have bought a chunk of AAL,I am holding JET2 and CCL for the recovery of the travel industry to 2019 levels and beyond, I am buying RKB which has fallen unduly IMV. I have bought DGE and RTO both of which I expect to recover from sharp falls, I hold LGEN and MNG as prospects in the insurance industry have improved sharply now that they can lock in earnings on Gilts and High Grade paper.(that is lending to companies). I hold both BT and VOD In expectation of consolidation in telecoms and an easier regulatory environment. I am buying GLEN as the demand for metals will grow.

That’s it for now, a reminder this is one man’s view I may be wrong (it will happen sometime!!) one other point is that in recent years I have taken the emotions out of my investing by setting limit transactions when my holdings or my buy targets reach predetermined levels . It has cost me some money in selling “ too soon” but it has proven to be on the whole a better method than my previous attempts to judge tops and bottoms. I am going to be out of close contact with the markets for some time from next week so wish you all a prosperous new year of investing.

A little later than intended but here’s my view on the key investing matters this year and how I'm playing it.

NOTE this Is not investing advice.

So, backdrop this year will see the continued drift down in inflation, though IMV it will level out at somewhere between 2 and 4 % which is historically low when compared to all but the last 10/12 years. It is also clear that central banks in the US, UK and EU will start to lower IR’s towards the 2% target tho’ again IMV will almost certainly not get there this year. In the UK and the US forthcoming elections will encourage governments to introduce policies which benefit consumers and build a “feel good” factor. The UK will see tax reductions, policies to stimulate growth, spending, the leisure industries , housebuilding......The benefits of 10% pay rises will encourage spending on consumer goods, tech , holidays and I may be alone in seeing annual GDP growth in the UK of 1-2%.

On global matters we have two major conflicts affecting the world economy and I doubt that either will be resolved this year , even if they are, the move by major economies to spend on defense is now a given . The munitions provided to Ukraine and used by Israel will be replenished and many countries who have been lulled into a sense of comfort have had their illusions shattered , and will be arming themselves , think Germany and eastern Europe Japan?, Taiwan?

I also expect to see consolidation in media companies , telecoms, building, mining, oilco’s.

The net effect of the above will be for the FTSE to have a better year than for some time and my strategy is based on that .

In the last few months I have bought into or added defense companies BAE and CHG, I hold PSN , I have bought a chunk of AAL,I am holding JET2 and CCL for the recovery of the travel industry to 2019 levels and beyond, I am buying RKB which has fallen unduly IMV. I have bought DGE and RTO both of which I expect to recover from sharp falls, I hold LGEN and MNG as prospects in the insurance industry have improved sharply now that they can lock in earnings on Gilts and High Grade paper.(that is lending to companies). I hold both BT and VOD In expectation of consolidation in telecoms and an easier regulatory environment. I am buying GLEN as the demand for metals will grow.

That’s it for now, a reminder this is one man’s view I may be wrong (it will happen sometime!!) one other point is that in recent years I have taken the emotions out of my investing by setting limit transactions when my holdings or my buy targets reach predetermined levels . It has cost me some money in selling “ too soon” but it has proven to be on the whole a better method than my previous attempts to judge tops and bottoms. I am going to be out of close contact with the markets for some time from next week so wish you all a prosperous new year of investing.

A little later than intended but here’s my view on the key investing matters this year and how I'm playing it.

NOTE this Is not investing advice.

So, backdrop this year will see the continued drift down in inflation, though IMV it will level out at somewhere between 2 and 4 % which is historically low when compared to all but the last 10/12 years. It is also clear that central banks in the US, UK and EU will start to lower IR’s towards the 2% target tho’ again IMV will almost certainly not get there this year. In the UK and the US forthcoming elections will encourage governments to introduce policies which benefit consumers and build a “feel good” factor. The UK will see tax reductions, policies to stimulate growth, spending, the leisure industries , housebuilding......The benefits of 10% pay rises will encourage spending on consumer goods, tech , holidays and I may be alone in seeing annual GDP growth in the UK of 1-2%.

On global matters we have two major conflicts affecting the world economy and I doubt that either will be resolved this year , even if they are, the move by major economies to spend on defense is now a given . The munitions provided to Ukraine and used by Israel will be replenished and many countries who have been lulled into a sense of comfort have had their illusions shattered , and will be arming themselves , think Germany and eastern Europe Japan?, Taiwan?

I also expect to see consolidation in media companies , telecoms, building, mining, oilco’s.

The net effect of the above will be for the FTSE to have a better year than for some time and my strategy is based on that .

In the last few months I have bought into or added defense companies BAE and CHG, I hold PSN , I have bought a chunk of AAL,I am holding JET2 and CCL for the recovery of the travel industry to 2019 levels and beyond, I am buying RKB which has fallen unduly IMV. I have bought DGE and RTO both of which I expect to recover from sharp falls, I hold LGEN and MNG as prospects in the insurance industry have improved sharply now that they can lock in earnings on Gilts and High Grade paper.(that is lending to companies). I hold both BT and VOD In expectation of consolidation in telecoms and an easier regulatory environment. I am buying GLEN as the demand for metals will grow.

That’s it for now, a reminder this is one man’s view I may be wrong (it will happen sometime!!) one other point is that in recent years I have taken the emotions out of my investing by setting limit transactions when my holdings or my buy targets reach predetermined levels . It has cost me some money in selling “ too soon” but it has proven to be on the whole a better method than my previous attempts to judge tops and bottoms. I am going to be out of close contact with the markets for some time from next week so wish you all a prosperous new year of investing.

I’ve been thinking about how to present my review of 2023 and decided I’m going to bore you with the reasons for my successes ‘cos , while they don’t help anyone make a success of investing last year, the logic might help for this year. So, what I’m doing is to summarise my view of last year and a few decisions I made which paid off.

In retrospect, my big winners from last year, MKS, RR, SGE which I have now sold benefited from buys/adds late in 2022 and early in 2023, the logic was easy to see.

RR had been decimated by covid and the massive fall in aero engine flying hours which forms the main stable revenue and profit stream for the company .It was also still suffering from the severe impact of the rights issue in NOV 2020. That covid had almost gone and engine flying hours would increase was not hard to see. That tourism would recover was and remains an obvious bet. I also hold Jet2 (up25%)and CCL(up 60%).

MKS was under new and apparently competent management and like all retailers was bound to show growth after almost two years of COVID, lockdowns , and slow wage growth…..most major retailers did well, Sainsburys up almost 40% , next also 40%,TSCO (which I also hold )30% and again that people would spend more after two austere years was predictable.

SGE is the FTSE’s only significant “tech Stock “ although a minnow by US standards it benefitted from a sensible management pivot to “cloud-based services”. It was therefore the only FTSE stock that those trying to ride the tech wave could buy.

So the key drivers of SP rises were the end of Covid, the improvement in most people's incomes as pay rises of 10% landed in bank accounts, the recovery in the holiday industry, and the desire for “tech stocks” , much more in the US where I Hold almost all of the big 7 directly and the US market via ETF’s or funds.

The other big winning sector was “construction “where several of the builders rose by between 20 and 50%, my choice PSN, was a laggard , though I will hold because I see a lot further to go in that sector. The extent of this year's rise has surprised me , though I think it’s based on optimism for a return to growth which has yet to happen.

I will post again before the markets reopen with my summary of opinions and “guesses” for this year. Happy and prosperous New Year to you all.

I’ve been thinking about how to present my review of 2023 and decided I’m going to bore you with the reasons for my successes ‘cos , while they don’t help anyone make a success of investing last year, the logic might help for this year. So, what I’m doing is to summarise my view of last year and a few decisions I made which paid off.

In retrospect, my big winners from last year, MKS, RR, SGE which I have now sold benefited from buys/adds late in 2022 and early in 2023, the logic was easy to see.

RR had been decimated by covid and the massive fall in aero engine flying hours which forms the main stable revenue and profit stream for the company .It was also still suffering from the severe impact of the rights issue in NOV 2020. That covid had almost gone and engine flying hours would increase was not hard to see. That tourism would recover was and remains an obvious bet. I also hold Jet2 (up25%)and CCL(up 60%).

MKS was under new and apparently competent management and like all retailers was bound to show growth after almost two years of COVID, lockdowns , and slow wage growth…..most major retailers did well, Sainsburys up almost 40% , next also 40%,TSCO (which I also hold )30% and again that people would spend more after two austere years was predictable.

SGE is the FTSE’s only significant “tech Stock “ although a minnow by US standards it benefitted from a sensible management pivot to “cloud-based services”. It was therefore the only FTSE stock that those trying to ride the tech wave could buy.

So the key drivers of SP rises were the end of Covid, the improvement in most people's incomes as pay rises of 10% landed in bank accounts, the recovery in the holiday industry, and the desire for “tech stocks” , much more in the US where I Hold almost all of the big 7 directly and the US market via ETF’s or funds.

The other big winning sector was “construction “where several of the builders rose by between 20 and 50%, my choice PSN, was a laggard , though I will hold because I see a lot further to go in that sector. The extent of this year's rise has surprised me , though I think it’s based on optimism for a return to growth which has yet to happen.

I will post again before the markets reopen with my summary of opinions and “guesses” for this year. Happy and prosperous New Year to you all.

I’ve been thinking about how to present my review of 2023 and decided I’m going to bore you with the reasons for my successes ‘cos , while they don’t help anyone make a success of investing last year, the logic might help for this year. So, what I’m doing is to summarise my view of last year and a few decisions I made which paid off.

In retrospect, my big winners from last year, MKS, RR, SGE which I have now sold benefited from buys/adds late in 2022 and early in 2023, the logic was easy to see.

RR had been decimated by covid and the massive fall in aero engine flying hours which forms the main stable revenue and profit stream for the company .It was also still suffering from the severe impact of the rights issue in NOV 2020. That covid had almost gone and engine flying hours would increase was not hard to see. That tourism would recover was and remains an obvious bet. I also hold Jet2 (up25%)and CCL(up 60%).

MKS was under new and apparently competent management and like all retailers was bound to show growth after almost two years of COVID, lockdowns , and slow wage growth…..most major retailers did well, Sainsburys up almost 40% , next also 40%,TSCO (which I also hold )30% and again that people would spend more after two austere years was predictable.

SGE is the FTSE’s only significant “tech Stock “ although a minnow by US standards it benefitted from a sensible management pivot to “cloud-based services”. It was therefore the only FTSE stock that those trying to ride the tech wave could buy.

So the key drivers of SP rises were the end of Covid, the improvement in most people's incomes as pay rises of 10% landed in bank accounts, the recovery in the holiday industry, and the desire for “tech stocks” , much more in the US where I Hold almost all of the big 7 directly and the US market via ETF’s or funds.

The other big winning sector was “construction “where several of the builders rose by between 20 and 50%, my choice PSN, was a laggard , though I will hold because I see a lot further to go in that sector. The extent of this year's rise has surprised me , though I think it’s based on optimism for a return to growth which has yet to happen.

I will post again before the markets reopen with my summary of opinions and “guesses” for this year. Happy and prosperous New Year to you all.

Hi Gio my mistake , I copied a post from the LLOY board to several others and forgot to amend it. I do hold here, though it is probably my most high risk play, at an average of around 550 , looking for an SP of 800+ before I consider cashing out(again).While OCDO is IMV a medium to long-term winner, its volatility has served me well in making profits as it oscillates between 4/500pand 800/1000p.

Crossley .. I agree the HB's WILL recover, whether this coming year or next, also generally comfortable with insurers (BUT NOT banks).Again, the travel sector is primed for better things, with airlines it's Jet2 for me(hold at just below 1000p, CCL(been buying since 600p) for the US cruise market .......despite the regular grumbles around these boards, discipline and common sense provide the opportunity for sensible, low-risk profits.

All the best for next year, I will be posting a bit in the next ten days then off to warmer climes 'till March.

Robleo , if that's in reference to me , feel free to read my posting history, which accurately reflects the facts I set out in my previous post . By the way, nothing I say is intended as advice, I was asked by Crossley how my strategy had performed, I responded with specifics.

Hi Crossley I'v had an excellent year, holding and selling three of the FTSE 100 top five, in RR up180% at sell(though still clearly too early), MKS (up 100%) and SGE (up 60%), that together with positive returns for all the rest of my holdings except for VOD(-20%)and DGE (recent purchase -flat)means I'm showing ~35% up for the year.

I tend to buy with the intention of holding for a long period, but of late I have taken to collecting profits rather than running winner forever. I've been investing for thirty years now and this year is up with the top three or four in that time.

I've got more work to do on my plans for the coming year but a key element of my strategy is to buy sound companies whose SP is, IMV, unreasonably depressed, either due to external factors , short-term issues or overly negative sentiment, to that end I hold AAL, DGE, RTO, CCL, BAE and PSN among my major new " bets" for next year. I don't do AIM stocks (with very few exceptions) and I hold a number of funds , ETF's prefs and bonds.

To preempt those who will say "rubbish " almost all of my positions, entries and exits are shown in my posting history, pretty much at the time I transact, anyone with the patience to scan my posting history can verify that..

I will follow this post up here and on a few other boards in the next few days.

Until then have a good new year all.

Me too

Fail to plan.... plan to fail

At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.