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Depending on which figs you take, SGE still has a P/E in the thirties, so it has high growth standards expected. We'll see a more considered market reaction over the next few days/weeks.

No not you guys , tho' some posts here fully deserve it! I'm talking about the bot driven FTSE 100. A major constituent has risen by 16% and added £2bill to its value on the strength of a moderately good RNS. Today's volume is already double a normal day and the hysterical buying is a joke. Analyst's will be rushing to revise their figures and buy recs will be along soon. As a patient holder here I expect the SP to fall back in the coming days BUT I don't care, BT is the same boring , near- monopoly it was yesterday and good for a reasonable divi and a moderately rising SP over the next few years.

AT FY 23 Sage guided growth of 12-14%, today's RNS shows 10-11% ie " missed estimates"hence severely punished, I don't currently hold having sold late last year at an average of just under 1000p (to soon as usual!) but may be tempted back if these drift much below that figure..

I said a while ago that in a potential takeover situation, all major holders are required to declare their positions and any changes. SO, I've had a trawl through today's RNS's of which there are over 30, from organisations representing about 35% of AAL stock. In simple terms they are either, running bots to buy and sell significant volumes aiming to pick up fractions of a penny per trade, actively trading options or CFD's for small but persistent profits or adding gently to their holdings. If there is any inference to be drawn it is this , they DO NOT think BHP will withdraw, they expect them either to go formal with the current offer or an increased one before 22/5.

We shall see.

To summarise the current position:

BHP has made AAL a conditional offer which AAL have refused.

AAL have set out a plan which almost EXACTLY mirrors the offer conditions.

ERGO, AAL have NO problem with the conditions ONLY the PRICE.

AAL ARE , IN EFFECT SIGNALLING A WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT A DEAL AT A HIGHER PRICE.

THUS THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS, IS ,ARE BHP WILLING TO RAISE THEIR BID?

We shall soon know.

The BHP bid has woken AAL up. This RNS

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/anglo-american-accelerates-delivery-of-strategy/16467967

Sets out a plan to significantly downsize the company, key elements are

Divest steel-making coal, mothball nickel , demerge Amplats and De beers and mothball Woodsmith.

The impact on the SP is highly unpredictable , BUT the markets might think , that despite AAL's rejection of the BHP bid they are in effect doing exactly what BHP has specified. Not willing to marry but buying the dress???

Just to be clear, last night's news was that the UK cabinet office approved the prospective merger from a SECURITY point of view, there is still an outstanding CMA review looking at the merger from a COMPETITION standpoint. Nevertheless, it is one hurdle cleared and IMO the CMA will be under significant pressure from Gov to allow the deal to proceed. Today's positive market reaction might dissipate over the next few days , BUT as a holder I am comfortable with a high divi and a process to divest, simplify the structure and clear debt. I don't expect fireworks but I expect divi + gentle SP accretion to meet my inflation + 10% target.

HI picstloup, glad to hear that the recent bid talk has recouped much of your SXX losses, I remember your balanced and rational view of events re the SXX takeover. Sadly, an awful lot of others blamed anyone but themselves. Events subsequent to the SXX demise illustrate how far from ever being able to fund the development of the mine they were. My cautionary words then still underestimated that gulf by some distance. In this takeover bid Woodsmith is almost irrelevant, BHP want AAL 's copper and maybe additional iron ore , but I wouldn't be surprised if ,when the bid (or another from elsewhere) succeeds, that a partnership for woodsmith or even the whole thing is up for sale again.

BHP already owns Jansen Potash see

https://www.bhp.com/what-we-do/global-locations/canada/jansen

It's another mega-investment with production expected to start in " late 2026" , whether BHP want two mega fert producers is an interesting question. There is little doubt that world demand for fertilisers is increasing, despite a stabilising population growth and price projections are for low single figures growth per annum.

As I have mentioned on various other boards when a bid situation arises, stock exchange rule 8.3 is implemented which means that any organisation holding more than 1% of a target company's stock is required to declare it and any subsequent changes. As a PI it is useful because it means the big boys are playing poker with their cards face up. For anyone who wants to try to understand what is going on this page

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/AAL/anglo-american-plc/analysis

is invaluable.BUT, be aware that ALL is not always as it seems, major investors use swaps,CFD's options,any ruse they can think of to conceal their plans and motivations.

For sad geeks like me, it is great fun and I'll probably bore you with my interpretations(whether accurate or not?) over the next few weeks, feel free to ignore .....

Sharp spike upwards last five mins, more news???

All here will be aware the SP is now ABOVE the estimated value of the BHP bid, and the frantic action yesterday with high volumes and literally millions of share trades going through the LSE " late reported" and the negative noises from the SA Gov. makes it clear that BHP will have to improve the deal substantially to get it through.

They can do that in a variety of ways, e.g. put some cash into the deal (a last resort IMV), persuade AAL to set in train the float of the Amplats and iron ore elements BEFORE the takeover, add a larger element of its own stock....the variations are numerous.

I don't give advice, but I am waiting to see where this goes: the absolute worst case in the short term is that the deal collapses BUT, that will leave AAL with a much higher perceived value than before, it will prompt AAL to "tidy up" its structure, probably by the divestment mentioned above (and De beers?) and make it primarily a copper and fertiliser play (both of which have good growth prospects). I'd be happy to hold long-term on that basis and would expect to see a steady SP recovery. Meanwhile, I expect lots of conflicting news, comment and further announcements from both companies....

No.... separate news suggests AAL are trying to divest the de Beers diamonds franchise, hardly surprising with the rise of synthetic diamonds...

To make it clear, the BHP offer implies that AAL shareholders will get one share in "Anglo platinum" , a new company holding AAL's platinum interests, notional value 486 p at the MO. One share in Kumba iron ore, notional value 340p , and 0.7097 of a share in BHP ,FOR EACH AAL share they hold.

At current values (all of which will vary over time) that is worth £25.08 for EACH AAL share , which is why the SP has risen to just below that price.

As usual what follows next may be a better deal from BHP, a competing offer from another source(though only a very few are large enough)or the rejection of the offer by the AAL board.

I'm not sure I want three miners in my folio (or four as I already hold GLEN ) so I will probably sell my AAL before the deal completes , hoping to time my exit better than I did With SMDS!!

Update see this

" as part of the terms of the offer ANGLO said the proposal would be preceded by separate demergers of its entire shareholdings in its platinum business and Kumba Iron Ore to its shareholders. The two parts of the proposal would be inter-conditional."

Slightly surprising, I would have thought the De beers diamond business would be one to jettison...

Ss is the current fashion, stronger co's are offering ALL SHARE takeover options , which means that they dilute their own stock BUT do not have to fork out cash. If the T/O proceeds you will find yourself holding shares in another miner , not a bad option IMV. The preliminary terms will no doubt "leak out" today and I would expect the SP here to bounce sharply. My usual reaction to a nice profit is to take it (see my SMDS posts recently ) but times will be interesting here for a few weeks.It's worth bearing in mind, as I said back in DEC, BHP is monster, with a MCof ~£120bn so this is a relatively easy morsel to swallow.

As reported " Since February, we have taken delivery of a further two new CFM powered A321neo aircraft from Airbus in line with our agreed delivery schedule, with both paid for from our own cash reserves."

In addition they will have paid to block book hotel accommodation for the summer season, which will be recouped from customers ..The bit of the RNS which has prompted the selloff is this "although recently, pricing has been more competitive, particularly for April and May departures."ie they are probably cutting prices...

Usual unthinking overreaction from market bots. This morning's RNS narrowed the profit forecast BUT the midpoint remains exactly the same(UP 33%) at £517.5 m. It holds cash on the books worth over a third of the company's MC. This is a company with excellent control over its input costs and in a market where demand is growing. At current figs, the PE is around 6. I may add a few at this level.

Alessandro, opinions make markets, I'll check back in a years time and we'll see how it turns out. As an aside, I do hope those who take and hold IP make a profit, that success will cost me nothing (except a bit of regret!) IMO my money will be better deployed elsewhere...

GLA

The agreed deal is for SDMS shareholders to get 0.1285 of an IP share for each SMDS share held. At present rates of exchange and with the IP SP closing at $35.38 that equates to a value for each SMDS share of £3.67. Expect the SMDS SP to hover at or very slightly below that value until the deal closes, unless, as I half expect the IP SP falls a little . I sold at 341p a while ago and have missed the opportunity to sell at recent highs , well done to those of you who did sell more recently, not a great additional return for those still holding.

As an aside it's worth noting that IP has P/E in the 40's having made only $300m last year on a net income of almost $19bn. Would I hold? I leave you to guess the answer.....