Member Info for carvegyber

Price on this is really damp when you compare to PMs I would have expected this to burst through 1350 by now. Really disappointing.

I have a good feeling about this rise and I think if gold and silver holds 1970 and 2750, then 1360 fres should be ours

Your view on that is very negative on cruising but a correct one. Having said that, there is still no shortage of people who will just go on a joy cruise without stopping anywhere but I guess they may not want to pay a premium and don't have to go too far afield. That will put pressure on pricing as well as dampen demand. Not great situation to be in when costs of operation are likely to be much higher.....

Cruising will get back to normal when there is widespread vaccination and effective treatment which will mean at least 18 months as the above will need time to be proven. Only way they can be proven is much lower death/hospitalisation rates when compared to march. I don't think this has enough money to last that long and there is a strong chance that shareholders will be wiped out. With the recent spike in prices, I would urge people to reconsider holding this. It is just too risky. The SP should be heading down with every passing day. Not spiking 20% and rising. You are holding a time bomb. Keep your money safe in something like GSK.

I would have expected FRES today to be nearer 1350 than 1300. Especially when you consider gold is 1950 and silver 2700.

Having said that, if gold goes anywhere near 1970 again, then this could finally leave 1350 behind. This is forming a very nice bull flag on the daily chart. 1350 has proven a hard nut to crack.

BTB, think I was too pessimistic on timing. Silver has already rebounded and I am gutted that I wasn't on my screen to grab the 2600....the reverse uncoupling to usd seems to have happened so dollar headwind for PM will should be off now. Rotation into safety in times of zero interest and yield is very positive for PM. Trump is sabre rattling with China again.....

I think we are on the cusp of next leg up....

Nasdaq retreat will put a dent on risk appetite. usd momentarily up due to rotation into already overvalued bonds and I suspect once the selling of PM clears, this is on another leg up. Ready to charge again. Give it couple of days.

I missed buying silver at 2600 but I didn't miss buying buying into fres at 1265 again after selling at 1320... doing it all again.

At $1900 and $27 PM prices, fres is generating $1b more revenue than 2019 without increase in cost. In profit terms, that is 600%. If the SP is a pure multiple of earnings valuation, then this should be 6x more but of course, you don't value a miner just based on earnings. Resource matters too and this has a biggie in Juanicipio. The valuation of that project has effectively doubled from last year! Seriously undervalued here but I am afraid we have a few more months to wait for the idiot analysts to start trumpeting this. They appear to be way behind the curve and I wonder why they bother with putting out notes.

A respected market analyst that I follow (not mainstream), said, this has ample scope to double from here in the next few months. He has been spot on on so many fronts it is not funny. He only started tipping gold stocks 2 years ago and again well timed.

Trader, I though we had the 10% correction last month? There is no divergence in momentum which is what I normally look for to signify correction. Ie price going up but momentum going down. At the moment, both seems to be trending sideways.

Looking at FRES potential, I think of the large cap PM miners with the most potential upside based on historical SP on current PM prices, then FRES is it. It is still some way below our historical high when it should have exceeded it based on current metal prices going forward. Plus this has high exposure to silver which is a multiplier of gold so just on historical prices, this could well hit £30 in a year's time! Provided PMs don't go south.

If PMs go north, well......

BTB, are other PM miners up steeply today too? FRES has shown very strong price action 2 days in a row now on lower or flat PM prices. What is going on?

Our decent rise has been somewhat scuppered by usd spiking round about 3pm crashing PMs down. USD has now deflated again after close so we don't get the benefit here. What a bugger. The price action is promising....

Tested 1300p twice today despite gold down. I wonder if something is afoot? I can't see anything on the RNS horizon so any speculations out there? This is highly unusual price action for FRES. I am getting mildly excited.

Jmax, fyi, I watch a few news related to gold like usd, vaccine, SP500 and feds. If there are no negatives, then buy sub 1250 and then sell 1300 ish is a fairly good strategy. 5-6% gain each time and after 10 of those, you have a big gain.

I toted up my spread bets and I surprised myself with how much gain over the last 30 days. I am well on the way to this year's trading target. It would probably match the profits from just owning the shares.

BTW, this consolidation of gold around $1900-2000 level is very healthy. There might be some big sudden drops with slow rise back up but if this keep going for another 3 months, it will bode well for the next leg.

In the mid term no. Short term, it is still vulnerable to bad news as with any shares. I am only talking from a trading point of view. My ISA holding will be intact until the condition for PMs become unfavourable which will be higher bond yields and higher rates as well as stable world growth.

US election could potentially give PMs the next big leg up. If both parties start disputing election results and widespread riots break out in the US, and then throw in sabre rattling with Iran, Russia or China, we could well be in the money. Let's see what November brings.

$2500 gold?

Fres is rising very strongly for no reason? I have seen that sharp drop is a good time to buy and I am wondering if sharp rise is a good time to sell?

Mr. Magic, I have to say your analysis of the vaccine situation makes a lot of sense. I was thinking of picking up some bargain shares here but after thinking long and hard, decided it is too risky. It may have been worth £50 at some point but it will never get back to that. This will be a debt ridden company operating on very heavily reduced margin and only able to offer a reduced product going forward. It's SP will have to be re rated and no one yet knows how. Only thing riding for it now is past SP performance and past profitability. If you were to value it purely on last 6 month's earnings, it should be well bust. This share is a huge gamble. I now think as you said, even with a vaccine, you'll have to wait and see how the CDC and WHO pontificate. When will cruising be normal?

Interesting but fairly simplistic view of the price target. Anybody's guess is probably as good as yours in these things. I do hope that it will get to those numbers and more. There is also an analyst that I highly value and he said gold $10k is possible. He hasn't stuck his nose out to put a specific prediction on but just said it is possible.

He is more tuned to looking at the direction both short and mid term complete with rationale. At the moment, feds have signalled a policy based on driving inflation up which means keeping rates low and print money from time to time. This is negative dollar so we should see the PMs supported for the next 18 months.

With that in mind, I will keep my strategy on track with holding firm with my PM miners in my ISA while spread betting on silver and FRES. My US miners are getting hit because dollars have gone down so I wish I had weighted FRES more. However, US is a more frenzied market so when they start chasing miners, I think the miners in US will outperform. At the moment, the longs in the US are about even. In a strong bull, this should be over 70% so there is value there still despite USD...

BTB, I would be interested to hear why you think $135 silver? There are so many predictions out there just as the last predictions of $100 when silver last hit $50. What is your exact $135 figure based on?

You have to bear in mind, the price of silver is somewhat related to supply demand as well as the market expectations. Market expectations doesn't mean one or two people thinking. It takes majority of the market to move it.

Jmax, I took profit on my silver position too early at $2800 being smug but look at the prices now. It is not easy to time them but in a bull market, it is hard to go wrong so make hay while the sun shines. We might have a year of this to go and I hope to bag another £10-£20k from trading in the process... at some point, I will take a £1-2k hit but as long as PMs stay bullish, I should hit my target.

I wonder if this is another long run up or will it crash back down to $1900 gold level....I have hedged my bets both ways as I still have my trading position on FRES. I opened up new ones after it dropped to 1240 on Fri! I am going to let this one run as dollars seem to have finally made a decision to tank.

1292 is impeccable timing. ... Trading is hard, sometimes I don't let my profit run enough and sometimes, I don't take profit enough. PM is volatile but there are times it will go on a big long charge. Hard to know when. I will have to do a bit more thinking on this one.... I have no doubt gold will do a big long charge from this level to $2200 just that I haven't figured out the condition for this to happen yet. I am guessing it is when the whole world has inflation around 4% and yet interest rates stays 0