Member Info for carvegyber

Does anyone know if GDXJ has finished selling their stocks yet?

BTB, on Mag, when you think about it, you are not doubling down if you sell some Fres to buy Mag. You are actually leveraging up because Mag will give you outsize performance if you believe a) Silver will outperform gold in a bull. b) small caps will outperform large cap miners in a bull. Fres is diluted compared to Mag on Silver. If silver gets to $50, then MAG will probably be many multiples of today's price in a year.

PMs have been pared back by usd due to the feds comments but looking at GDXJ offload of around 10m shares, they should finish selling either today or tomorrow so price would be free to rise again come next week. If there is any weakness today, I am going to load up more. I expect us to be around 1260 by COB today looking at the pattern over the last 3 days so I am going to get some into my spreadbet.

Chinch, what is happening is that cruise companies can't hold on any longer. They have to try and forge a path. If they don't, they will go bust. They will hope that they can navigate their way through unscathed but as you say, chances are slim.

As Mr. Magic has pointed out correctly, it needs to be downgraded. I believe it will be over time but that is 18 months away is my guess. CCL can't last that long in its current form. It will have to restructure and that will mean shareholder wipeout. Airlines are in very bad but yet much better shape because they are get on get off and people will travel for all sorts of reasons.

TS, how many are in Bournemouth now? There were 4 3 weeks ago. They keep the engines running as you can see smoke coming out.

TG, you have done well buying in low. Good luck to you. This is a race against time and I bet you even the board can't be sure of when profitability is in sight again. These monthly offering is just the company buying time best way it can until a way out becomes clear.

Thrifty, I understand the long term view but this is fraught with potentially catastrophic short term risks. Why take the risks? I had suggested to sell out on spikes and then stay on the sideline until the default risks have passed. You might miss some gains but then your capital is safe. Just seems a safer way of doing it especially since your horizon is long term. Plenty of time for gains right? Skip the next year or 18 months until coast is clear.

As for revenue, I just used a very simplistic example. I am a cruise fan and have been on quite a few. Obviously if I spent $1000 a week on CCL cruise, they don't get the full $1000 because most of the sales are through agents. Plus costs would increase because they would need to spend on food and drinks plus more staff. I didn't think about this at first but unfortunately, the bigger operations are actually going to suffer more unless cruising becomes widespread very quickly and it is looking less and less likely. It will be stop start and I think it will come a bit too late for shareholders.

Company will survive but I am guessing shareholders will take at least a 75% haircut if not 90% from pre march. On that basis, probably sub 700p might think about a pun but until then, just watch the monthly share and bond sale continue. You have to bear in mind, those bonds are a ticking share haircut timebomb....

Anyone looked at MAG being JV at juanicipio and due to start producing this year? Surely that is good value for 12mths down the road?

BTB, thanks for tips on Pan am and WPM. I am actually in quite a few miners already like Newmont, POG, McEwen, Hummingbird plus some fast moving SPACs but if I stick anymore money in PM miners, my portfolio would be way too heavy PM. As it stands now, it is already a bit over 50%! Am I mad?

Am I correct in thinking that the only thing CCL can sell at the moment is their own shares. Every month $1b of it! Market cap $10b and every month sell $1b. Still the price spikes every now and again. There are main covenant test dates Mar and May 2021 and if they can't generate min $1b in revenue by then, I would say they will probably go bust.

Suppose cruise is an average $1k a week pp. They will need to have run 250,000 cruises a week or have 100 boats on the water assuming 2500 passenger per ship by then. Doable?

No, actually, you are the blinkered one that refuses to see the possibility of how deadly covid will become regardless of what the pharma or authorities do. As soon as intensive care units don't get swamped by covid and people stopped dying in droves from it, then covid will start to be downgraded legally, socially and mentally. This is not a sudden big bang! It will be gradually over couple of winters. When you don't get deaths and people on tubes, we will naturally start pushing back against lockdowns and start relaxing. If anyone tries to lockdown, there will be push backs... pharma conspiracy theories or not. How we get there is immaterial. History shows we will get there and with tech advances, we will probably get there very quickly.

I am grateful for this little intervention so that I was able to reopen my positions at 1270 and 1290 after selling out 1330s. If usd, gold and silver stays around the current levels, I am going to let this run. I reckon we would break 1360 over the next fortnight.

Fully loaded to where I want to be on silver and fres on spread bets.

Good luck with you bank shares....
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/08/05/you-wont-make-a-million-with-the-lloyds-share-price-but-investing-in-this-ftse-100-share-may-do-it/

Wow yes. that is a big holding. That is 10 times daily volume.

GDXJ only held about 500k shares on this. I guess if they sell it all at once, it could cause a sudden drop. Anyway, I loaded up so if that is indeed the reason, then thank you very uch GDXJ. I was fretting having liquidated my trades but looks like someone above was smiling..... thanks.

Errr, thanks. Really? Getting kicked of of a Junior index has that big an effect? Can hardly call this a junior!

what is going on?

We need it to close above 1350 to establish the next leg up. Otherwise, this will quite likely slip back below 1300. Gutted I took profit. Should have gone with my initial and correct instinct.

So you think 18 months too soon? In any case, this hasn't enough money to last 18 months and Joy cruises may end up being loss making....

Mr. Magic, I do stand firm by my view that once it has been demonstrated that Covid can be controlled in both its spread and successful treatment, then it WILL be downgraded. 18 months is my guess and I think I will end up being fairly close. Summer 2022 and covid will be downgraded in the eyes of authorities worldwide and we will resume life as normal. There is a third factor at play here too. As more people catch it and recover, there is the element of herd immunity starting to come into play and also we become more adept at fighting it. In a few year's time, covid will become another common cold. Over time, it will become less and less threat to humanity and we downgrade it in policy and in mind. Just look at the difference the last 6 months made.

1350 cracked. I changed my mind yesterday and took profit at 1340p after dollar going back up so someone please still slap me. Doh. Price very strong here and I wonder if 1350p will become the new floor....

I have still left my silver positions running.

1350 still proving hard nut to crack. I am not sure we would crack it this session with usd back up and PMs down from yesterday. Might have to wait for next charge....

I suppose you are right. ... I am gonna hold for 1250+ this time and see if gold breaks 1970. All I need is for dollar to go to 9200 while fres is in market hours.... come on....

Not selling the ones I picked up at 1265 this time. Slap me if I am wrong tomorrow...