Member Info for carvegyber

Now silver is sluggish compared to gold. Annoyingly, I have more longs in silver than FRES. I need it to boom big and soon!

Looks like the market is bored of vaccine news for now and resumed the cautious note expecting more handouts. Sure as daylight it will come as more and more businesses shut.

PMs will be under pressure for a while as risk is on. We need feds to come riding to the rescue and start printing again. It will be sure as day only question is timing. More places are going into lockdown in US and more people will want support. Same iin UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy. Even Poland, etc. Whole country in Tier 2 and businesses will go bust missing out on Christmas trade.

Jep, the online community is surprisingly receptive of bitcoins. Lots of retail with links to gaming accept bitcoins. When the exchanges get better and more mainstream, there will be more and more uses for bitcoins. This is the green shoots of mass adoption. More and more people will see the value and hold some.

PMs reversing?

Maybe not. Looks like they might agree something soon. Bitcoin has gone to almost $19000 and you don't hear anything of it. $30000 next year?

Tgirl, haha. It sounds like with you everything is rosy because you bought at £6.01. Well done.

GL. It was FT that reported the bond sale.

Tgirl, The prof is correct. Apparently in Aug, a condition was breached and it allowed the holders to convert before 30th Nov. Hence the spate of dilution now. The holders of the debt and goldman is laughing, literally all the way to the bank at your expense. Tranche 2 was also 200% of face value so I am guessing tranche 3 will be similar. Another 536m worth to be issued so 60 or 70 million more shares to come. This will have around 1.1 billion shares shortly and I struggle to see how you can paint that as a good thing for your investment. The mountain you have to climb to get back to the previous SP keep getting higher and higher.

Had they not messed up, they could have had money to repay in 2023 but instead, shareholders are bearing the brunt. Not a good idea this convertible bond turns out. Better check out your debt covenant homework and be concerned with market cap or earning per share if you want to invest in this long term. Like I predicted, this is well on the way to 1.3 billion shares.

They are now trying to raise $1.6b bonds in the junkbond market and junkbonds are 10%+ coupons. More long term distruction of value. This will survive but it will be a severely twisted mess for LTH.

TS, 3,4, and more is on its way. They have another $427m to repay before 30 Nov. This debt has been a disaster for them. It lasted 7 months and cost them hundreds of millions in fees and shares. Well ultimately, the investors pay.

I agree but stranger things have happened but in the long run, getting over £20 is damned near impossible judging by past valuation. Can only happen if all of a sudden, their margins improve tremendously. Even when the start full scale sailing, once you work out the earnings per share, then you will be back to half of the glory days. Unless they start buying back shares of course but that will be at least 3 years away. They have a lot of expensive debts to deal with first.

Mathsprof, I am pretty sure my maths is correct. The convertible aspect is irrelevant in this transaction. The lenders lent $499m, Carnival issues 57.43m shares priced at $18.05 = $1037m to pay off the debt. $1037m is 208% of $499m. This is not stock. It is debt. If you hold the convertible debt, you have the option to convert or be repaid the amount you lent. Carnival can't repay so they agreed a share offer instead and the value of those shares agreed was $18.05 being the market price at the time. There is another $627m to deal with and I expect there to be 75m odd shares to be issued in the next couple of weeks to clear this. Not a good place for Carnival. Certainly no partying as it will have 1100m shares by end of the year. PI stitch up.

offer aggregate of 57,426,860 shares (the "Shares") of its common stock at a price
of $18.05 per share to a limited number of holders (the "Holders") of its
5.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2023 (the "Convertible Notes"). The
Corporation intends to use the proceeds from the Offering to repurchase from
such Holders an aggregate of $499,364,000 principal amount of its Convertible
Notes (the "Note Repurchases," and collectively with the Offering, the
"Transactions") in privately negotiated transactions.

TS, with the 2 share sale announced in the last few days, it will take number of shares to over 1 billion compared to 690m at the start of pandemic. Looking at distressed debt levels and no prospect of total restarting in the next few months, I reckon by the time Carnival pulls through, this will have around double the number of shares. Simple valuation would mean that if this somehow gets back to the glory days sailing passenger numbers, then around £15 is the top end expectation because there will be twice the number of share so you have to halve the prepandamic share price.

I really pity the poor PIs being taken for a ride by managements and the great white shark that is Goldman Sachs. They offer debt buy back at 200% of face value, which means that buyers would have hedged at $18.05 when they took up the offer and when it closes, those shares will come flooding into the market driving the SP down. Meanwhile GS just takes money for nothing....

Beware of buying into distressed company people. I highly doubt you will see £30 again this decade. Such a shame because for cruiselines, it really is the bigger you are, the harder you fall when this pandemic turned up.

Should say 'smell the coffee' Not sell. LOL

Triple ouch I would say. There is a big bunch of sheep here that will say it smells of roses when carnival breaks wind.

Is my calculator broken or have I read it wrong?!! They are issuing $1b worth of shares to buy $0.5b worth of low interest debt. This tells me that Carnival debt is distressed in a world where corporate bonds are approaching negative yield. This means that the other $627m outstanding will need to be dealt with at a even bigger discount to the SP. This is what I have been banging on about regarding debt covenant and obviously none of you sheep know anything about it.

There is nothing good about buying cheap debt at double face value when you have more expensive debt to deal with. A good debt restructure would be your ability to raise cheaper debt with a long maturity to buy expensive debt . This is not it! Time to sell the coffee. Blood is on its way. SOON.

I am guessing that there will be around half a dozen vaccines approved by early next year. We will probably have a very small part of the population vaccinated by Jan next year and mass vaccination achieved by mid 21. The big question is when do you think cruise lines can deploy large scale cruises. My guess is May. With a clear roadmap of vaccination by Jan, this could grind higher to £12-13 on hope. However, the $1.5b share sale will only last until then so my guess is that there will be a mother capital raise some time around Jan or Feb which would take the SP straight back down again. Question is the size of this raise. If it is only $1 or 2b, then there may only be a 10% knock to the SP but I suspect the early 21 raise could be a big one because it is getting close to covenant test date and they won't be able to restart bulk of the fleet until late spring/early summer.

Without bulk of the fleet going back, this won't be cashflow positive so they will have to raise capital to avoid breaching covenant even though there is still money in the bank. If I were to play this, I would look to sell early next year when the SP hits a good peak and buy back in once the big capital raise is done.

That in a nutshell is my prediction on where this will go. Mid term, I think max upside is £20 by end of the year. Not enough to tempt me with the potential pitfalls along the road.

As messy as the US election has been, it is only a matter of time before they get their act together and print. Virus is hurting democrats and republicans alike

Plunge relatively short lived this time. Looks like gold buyers who are in now are less prone to panicking and knows in the short term, there will be more printed money and currency devaluation so they add. All these free money and furloughs are expensive.

They have fasttracked the approval process but they have not shortcutted the approval procedures and safeguards. They can get a flu vaccine developed in 6 months because the development has been well established. A lot of the covid vaccine is also based on existing techniques so no big hurdles to jump.

Another asset quietly racking up gains in the times of money printing is Bitcoin. I bought $2000 worth in 2017 stuck them in the bottom drawer and they are now worth $16000! Plus I got free bitcoin cash and soon another one!

Turned out to be pretty good and some say that it will be a better store of value than gold. When I see that happening, I will probably start clearing out my PM positions but I don't see that happening in the next few years just yet. I am surprised at what you can but with bitcoins and there are probably even a bitcoin atm near you.

Looks like the market is getting more realistic with the vaccine and realising that the road ahead is still long and windy and in the near term, there will still be massive damage to companies badly affected by the virus....

Sense has prevailed.