Member Info for carvegyber

I reckon if they can move the needle past $30 it would cause a massive short squeeze to $50, if indeed they are short. We shall see in the coming weeks.

gold and silver pumping now.... wonder if the reddit brigade is organising to sock it to JPM? LMAO

For a ftse 100 share, FRES is actually very illiquid and not many people trade it so as such, it is prone to matched order walk down. Price drops can be easily amplified down if you are determined. The mexicans seem really uninterested in the short term price of FRES and sometimes I do wonder why they list it here. There is a good and bad of this because it means they are more interested in the long term value and cash generation. This appears to be a well managed and serious outfit and definitely one to tuck away if you believe in the PMs as hedge against inflation and money devaluation.

By the annual report, I would expect this to be in the 1100s.... easy 20% gain. I put in £30k yesterday so come to papa....

JPM would probably be reducing their shorts now. Shots have been fired over the bow.... shorters beware.

let's get on reddit and pump it up. Time to sock it to the big boys and teach them a lesson...

Market drop so people sell stocks to hold dollar driving it up. Miners also sold. Then they realise in times of stress, gold is king so it goes back up after initial shock. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market so hard to call.

Carbon Tax? We need to bring back Trump. LMAO

If there is a hidden surprise I haven't yet seen, then my £30,000 bet would just have gone sour. Let's see in March.

Meantime I need the PM prices to get a move on but in reality, I suspect it will track sideways until march.

Another point to note is that the increase in revenue for 2020 of $300m over 2019 will bring the net profits of 2020 close to the 2016/17 levels when this rose to 2000p. We got hit with high capex in 2018, 19 and 20 which eroded cash but we are out of that now. Just the market hasn't picked up on it yet.

Permabear, call it delusion or calculated risk. I have just bought 3075 shares at 971p. I spent quite a bit of time reading and re reading the RNS as well as number crunching so below are the results but I will first answer your point about 2011 peak gold price - You got your analysis wrong with the timing in that the 2011 peak happened a full 2 and a half year after financial crisis and the associated money printing. The gold price went up 250% back then to the peak at 2011. If you took march 2020 gold low of $1450 and add 250%, it would take it to $3625 to happen in Aug 2022! A famous song went: "It's only just begun...."

From the RNS, and plugging in the forecast 2021 production and using gold and silver price range of 1750-2000 and 20-27, I get a mid point revenue of $2.65 billion. This is 25% more than 2019 revenue. I estimate that the 2020 revenue will be at $2.4 billion using gold of $1700 and $20 silver for FY20. This is still some 13% more than 2019.

Also, reading the RNS carefully, it sounds to me like they are being ultra conservative with the production figures due to the uncertainty of covid but looking at the pattern of Q4 production I think they are deliberately under promising. We know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel with covid and they seem to be managing it well regardless so I would be on this to be a good recovery play riding on waves of stimulus pumped PM price rise. $3625 gold in 2022 anyone?

I think Fres investors are very cautious ahead of production figures tomorrow. If we are low end or below of Q3 forecast numbers this will drop big time but if we do well, it may rise into the 1300s in the coming 2 weeks. What's everyone guess.

I think I am inclined to agree with your analysis there. PMs probably won't fly for now so wait and see is a good attitude.

The scale of money printing has actually exceeded the damage to economy several times so we should get all that excess money coming back into the economy once it opens so if that doesn't drive inflation, I don't know what will. I do think in the next 2 months, gold will range between 1750 and 1950. After which, it could take off with signs of inflation appearing. Before it takes off, there could well be a wobble to 1750 so probably enter then.

Governments won't admit it but the only way they can get out of this debt is to let inflation run to 4% and don't raise interest rates. They can't afford to because it increases their interest payments.

I posted about mag's appeal to those favouring silver in this chat some time back. It seemed to me like a sensible strategy if you believe silver will outpace gold as it is a purer silver play and about to go into production big time. I believe it has enough cash now to do so.

This has decoupled from the PM prices over the last 2 weeks and I agree with perma bear about the scepticism on production figures coming up next week. Either that or the MMs are playing games with this so if it exceeds forecast this will boom but if more problems, this will tank. Covid in Mexico is the big spanner in the works.

This appears very sluggish amidst declining daily volume. Seems to have been driven down the prices so I expect a big jump in the next few days to 1200s again.

Quoth, market is starting to worry more about Covid now with China's uptick. We have seen that when this happen, people sell stock, buy usd and drags gold down. Then gold comes back with a bang.

2020 will be low because South America is something like 65% of the world production and if we have been hit, others have been hit much worse.

I think there will be a silver supply deficit in the future but no quite yet. If current trends continue, then it is 2023 but if industrials pick up with EV and PV demand surging, then we could well have a big jump in silver to even above $50. With PM, we know as soon as a shortage is sniffed, the price can go ballistic so those forecasting $100 would be proven right.

It is not just yet but it might happen. at least 2 more years though so don't have your hopes up now.

I have no idea.

I think we are on the cusp of widespread inflation. Freight up, oil up, LNG up, copper up just as the world is getting vaccinated and economies opening up. There will be lots of pent up demand and nothing to buy because covid has disrupted the supply chain so what gives....