Member Info for carvegyber

BTB, I think the companies and industries that are badly impacted by the covid has already been marked down and hasn't got up much so I fail to see where the next big crash or panic will come from covid wise. On the other hand, I think you are about to miss out on a massive PM rally if Biden wins the house as well as senate. It means the passage of $2.5tr stimulus which would send gold over $2000. I think you may have made a mistake.

I doubt any government unless you are a very lefty one like the Welsh government will have any appetite for a national lockdown like March so we will soldier on.... The curve of this wave doesn't appear to be the same as last one so I am guessing we will be limping on so no big sharp drops would be my call.

In any case. PMs are safe havens....

HSBC is very much at historical low and they can certainly go up if they can avoid huge fines and also eek out some money from negative interest rates.

Let's make a little race. Let's see who gains 50% from here first. HSBC or FRES. 460p for HSBC and 1840 for FRES. Winner pat himself on the back and loser smash an egg on his face.

We were hit hard this morning. I plugged in average of $20 silver and $1800 gold into the 2020 production outlook and looks like revenue will be in the region of $2.5b. $400m more than 2019 or +18%. Looks like 2020 is a mixed one whereby the cause of higher PM has also caused lower production. Luckily, we are still making more money and most importantly will be adding lots of cash rather than bleeding it. The extra $400m will pay for all the capex +more. Hopefully q4 will be more productive. 2021 will be the year to look forward to for big gains.

Feels like the world is holding their breadth waiting for the stimulus bill.....

Looty, very good analysis of inflation only up to a point. You are right that future is uncertain and all you have listed are perfect rationale but they were only historic. For example, 2008 the money printed went straight to banks balance sheet. RIGHT. BUT Where has the money printed gone this time? Straight to the people and business. Velocity of money remember? More is to come.

You were also right that globalisation has pushed costs of almost everything down for 2 decades. Also historic. If you kept up with the big trends, you will know that the gains (or cost savings) from further globalisation has plateaued and it appears that we are reversing. Big push has been in the last 2 years with US China Trade Wars. Everyone seems more nationalistic these days.

Therefore in a background of no further cost savings from globalisation and increasing liquidity in the consumers, I strongly suspect that inflation is imminent. Starting mid 2021. I think we will hit 4% in 4 years' time (guess of course). I import watersports goods as a sideline. I am seeing and increase in my costs and every other brand has put their list price up by at least 10% this year. My shipping costs have also gone up by 20%.

Another trend is that Covid has killed off a lot of businesses which makes the remaining ones much less competitive. This will give them much more pricing power. The savings we have had from switch to online has also been accelerated so when covid ends, the cost saving trend due to online can no longer head down.

Next input costs. All commodities are currently at very low point compared to last decade. Iron, copper, coal, oil. Only direction seems to be up. No one can keep making goods below costs?

Inflation has already happened. In case you haven't noticed, supermarkets stopped discounting and costs of most things are edging up. Not down. If and when oil goes up, petrol will go up and that will feed into everything else. The figures are a con!

I think your BTFD is still ways off. When inflation takes off over 4% and you can't easily print any more money without going into hyperinflation is when BTFD will happen. When they can still print at will, they can rescue anything. They are talking about $2.5tr as if it is nothing..... and everyone is egging them on.

It looks like PMs want to keep going up despite continued strength in the dollar. It bodes well for the next leg up. Any sign of a stimulus would send gold up $50 I reckon. This would probably be up 100p.

Tgirl, defo sit on your hands or even sell out on the next spike for now. Don't take the gamble. There will be more capital raise to come in the next 3-6 months and I suspect one of them could be pretty painful. Reason? The bond pricing for CCL is over 10% compared to a company like Rolls Royce raising at 5%. 10% is edging on distressed level. I

If majority of fleet cannot sail before April, which I would say it is looking very likely, then for sure this capital raise event will be very very painful. Until then, your upside is 20 or 25% but your downside could be 70%! Sit on the sidelines and wait until the coast is clear.

As for longer term, I am guessing if we go through this winter with the death toll in the developed world being significantly lower than the first wave, then the virus will start being downgraded and cruising will quite likely resume close to normal. wait until you can see that. You will probably be buying this at 300-400p.

You are funny Davee.... this is what you said at 3.27pm on 8 Oct:
"The history of this share tells me there will be more bounces, so will go for the sell and hope to buy back sub 900 maybe 870" Nice profit of £4000! Now looking for the next low!"

Reality is, it hit 1100 briefly at 2pm and it never went near 1095p again after your post at 3.27pm. Well done on the trading nonetheless. LMAO.

Yes, you predicted it spot on but you never traded it! Go on.....fess up.

Owls, once you have handed it out, it will be very hard to take it back. Everyone is calling for more handouts now....

Property is great asset to hold in times of inflation and debt is also good but only if your earnings go up with inflation. Interest rate is unlikely to go past 5% mark in the next 5 years.

The greatest traders in the world are hindsight traders....

So, it about share issue time again isn't it? This has had to issue shares almost every month to keep the ball rolling.... so perhaps market is anticipating this? What is the guess on the next dilution?

This remains your biggest risk if you are invested in this.

Theaeo. More faulty facts I am afraid. Cruise companies spend $7-$20 per day with majority around $15. You can't even feed prisoners for $2.20 a day! You really make me laugh. At the moment, they are laid up with just skeleton crew on board. When sailing starts, there will need to be full or even full+ crew and entertainers.

Now for proper maths, $15 a day for 2000 people for 30 ships is $27m a month or $320m a year!

Theaeo, your maths logic is faulty assuming 50% capacity at 60 ships will breakeven if 30 ships at full capacity breaks even. Your logic is only true if the extra 30 ship can sail with no fuel burnt, no food used and no staff to serve! LMAO.

US companies were struggling to hire workers because they made more money at home than working! Crazy policies like that are obviously good for gold....

Actually, DT just shot himself in the foot by walking away from the stimulus discussion with Pelosi. Biden is promising more stimulus effectively buying votes. DT is toast and gold is going up as a result. Democrats has just turned into the handout party.

Some unusual price action again today. Broke 1300 then straight down to 1260 in a wiff. What is going on?

Powell is telling Trump and Pelosi to act. Feds have done as much as they can. They can print but they can't give them away. That is in the hands of the politicians. To be frank, I am no fan of Pelosi and she is a caustic cow. Put her and Trump together and you will get sparks. Both big headed.