Member Info for carvegyber

If you look at Carnival now, it is having to survive by selling shares and borrowing at cut throat 11%! Once the darling of the cruise industry....

Looks like a housekeeping exercise. Only about $500m sold their old bonds so fres will have to pay balance back in couple of years anyway. You don't want to be in a situation then if the SP was depressed, you have to borrow to repay. 4.25% for an exceptionally long term is great news. 2050! You don't see many corporate bonds that long and cheap. This is making hay while the sun shines. Good move. Pat on management's back.....

BY YE, this will have silly amounts of cash in the bank.

Mean to say very big projects.

WRT to expansion, FRES seems only interested in very projects and rightly so. There won't be many around and they have Jaunicipio to sink their teeth into. This is fine for the next 10 years and if PM is around here or above, then divi could be a chunky 40p a share which if you bought at £8 say, that would be 5%. I can really see this at 2500p if PM prices holds or goes up.

Quick scan of the balance sheet actually shows that the $800m bonds are the only debt on the books. So now we have paid over half the debt at a cost of $500m. I guess the holders of the balance prefer to get their 5.5% a year rather than take the profit and run. With free cashflow of over $1b a year, this is as good as debt free. They will be sitting on so much cash by next report that it will look seriously odd. Even with the repayment of $500m, I reckon by year end, they will still have $500m or so in cash. By July next year, over $1b. What do you do with the cash pile? Share buy back? Only 25% listed so it could be very interesting....

Davee, that is probably quite good strategy. Make sure you set a stop to protect yourself.

BTB, I believe it is making an offer to the holders to buy them back so they have less debt. Signs of a cash rich company. I suppose they are the most expensive debt. I wouldn't call 5.5% expensive though. At current pm prices, this is generating $1b more a year! Next year's divi would be tasty.

Morgan Stanley raised to 1350 and jefferies 1750 just in the last few days. Hopefully it will make up lost ground soon. ... I would like to see this properly break 1350 when silver is back above 2700.

Bit sluggish this. I see that there has been a slew of broker upgrades lately and yet this is sluggish.

Bernie, I don't think sneezing is a symptom of Covid. Lol.

Well done on that Trader. Yes, the 1150 was my support level too at which I went long at 1170. Although I am stuck on some longs from higher up trying to range trade the 1250 to 1350 zone. I am sure they will come good in not too long.

On your trade, that would have been one long short to hold. How long have your had to hold that short and how much would you have had to pay in fees?

Good luck with your HSBC shares then Nuri.... I will stick with my gold miners thank you. Dividend or no. At least they are not prone to corrupt market manipulation and massive fines.

Yes, gold has uncoupled from USD. At last! Cavalry to the rescue

Dollar on the charge. PMs might be in trouble in the short term with everyone selling out thus naturally holding USD since Europe appears to be experiencing 2nd wave and brexit woes. Plus there is no sign of more money printing. Looking for gold to hold its 1750 key level. It looks like 1850 level could go.

LOL, good luck Davee. I think your 2750 in 2022 would be too soon. If ever the pie in the sky can be achieved, it would be 2025 at least. 2021 looks like a goner so how is it going to be 2750 in 2022?

One thing that hasn't been considered for the longer term is how structurally cruising will be affected. Similar in the way EV and renewables has done to the oil majors. There is no way back for them. Can cruising grow from 2019 levels with the regulatory issues and environmental issues? If yes, then another question is can the profit grow?

Yikes, I have doubled down from this morning's position. The highly leveraged US markets really amplifies the drop. I should have waited for the US to open but hey ho. Really hope I am right about this.

As far as I know, FRES has a policy of not hedging.

Even If there are hedges, it would normally be the use of options where you pay a fee for the option to sell at a certain price at a later stage. You don't have to exercise the option. You only use it if the price drops.

Looks like 2nd wave panic this morning is causing a dash for cash. I have seen this a few times over the last 6 months and everytime, this preceeds a bull charge for PMs.

We shall wait and see if this turns out to be the case. Stops can sometimes multiply drops. I have placed a big bet on it. Hope I am not wrong....

BTB, I don't quite understand the concept of EFP and what that means. Could you elaborate please to educate me on this? I am bit underinformed on this subject. I can't seem to work out the implications of that.

Tks BTB. I have bought back in after trading it couple of times during the last week. By wed, I worked out their very predictable pattern of climb up mid morning which they start selling into and by the evening, price is way down. It starts again the next day. If anyone needs convincing of MM manipulation, then this is it.

What was the takeaway on the Comex EFP discussion? I am going to subscribe to the news...

Davee, I am afraid your high 2000s hope in 12 months is a pie in the sky. Why?

2019, the market cap of this was $32b with turnover of $20b. They got rid of 20% ships in fire sale and of the remainder, it will probably operate on around 60% pre 2020 capacity due to restriction. This is assuming they can run full fleet somehow very very soon. That would bring the potential turnover to just under $10b which if you prorate the profit, it would be $1.5b for FY. You then have to deduct this with higher operation costs and higher interest payments, it would compress margin and I would be very generous to say $1b profit. Pre 20, it was 11 times profit and assuming the same going forward when this is fully sailing, that would bring the market cap to $11b which equates £8.5b or SP of around 1200.

As you can see, the upside is 1200 and the downside is potentially 100p if shareholders face a capital restructure when covenant tests are up in May. The closer we get to this date without significant income, the faster the SP will drop. Furthermore, the asset to debt ratio has deteriorated significantly since march which would significantly dent the valuations which I haven't even factored in. Trade this on exuberance by all means but hold for high 20s? Dream on....