Member Info for carvegyber

Some pretty odd posts here on the 90% efficacy. You can't compare vaccination to a surgery to fix a specific problem. The vaccine is a prevention and 90% is pretty damned good. at the moment, only 5-6% of people with covid will have complication so if you vaccinate entire population with 90% and your chance of catching covid is only 1 in 1000 or 0.1%, this means that for UK, after vaccination, only 6600 will catch it. Of which 40 will die and 400 will be hospitalised. In a population of 66million, this is much much less than falling over and killing yourself. this also means the virus will die out very quickly in countries with high vaccinations.

As long as the 10% uneffective group doesn't develop side effects, then there should be no issues with the vaccine.

Some oil stocks have future but many others are probably dead. Explorers in general are toast so is fracking. The oil majors could be good value and so are some mid caps with very low cost production and no big exploration/development expenditure. Very few small caps will make it now. I think longer term, oil will probably rise but not more than $70. I think $60 will be the norm post pandemic. A lot of explorers will have gone bust and supply would be tight but demand hasn't shrunk much. It will probably maintain for the next 10 years or so before declining. EV is not feasible for trucks or planes and hydrogen is years away.

Hydrogen is probably going to be the big story of the decade.

That is more realistic Maths prof. No wonder they call you prof. LOL

That's why it has gone from 1400p to where it is now. Exuberance always happens when big news breaks and lots of people buy like Rowshares below. The road back to normal is hard and long.... some have an easier road than others but this has been now lumped with some very expensive 10%+ debt. There is upside once a path back is forged but no former glory within near sight.

Latpull. So a year ago this has 690m shares. There is now 880m shares or 27.5% more shares. They just announced that they will be adding another 100m shares shortly to that total making it almost 1 billiong shares. Would you like to show me how you are going to account for the extra shares in your charts?

as much as I hate to say it hydrogen, you could well get your 1000. We broke support and form seems to indicate a visit to 850p. However, this will only happen if gold dips below 1800. So all eyes on gold now....

The price of Fres is driven by precious metal prices. If you don't want to hold risk assets, you normally have the choice of bonds or cash. Good bonds are negative yielding and interest rates are nailed to the floor so holding cash is not much fun either. Plus you have the threat of governments debasing your cash by printing more money. It makes holding gold and other real assets like properties to be not that bad....

Now it will get interesting when the recovery comes and inflation start rearing its ugly head. I am noticing that prices of stuff has stopped falling and in fact, many things have gone up. Eating out, pints, cars, houses, rents. I import sports goods and I notice that everyone has put up their prices by at least 10% for next year. It only takes oil prices to go up to $50-$60 and a cycle of inflation starts setting in. My guess is by march this year inflation will start getting close to 2-3%. Not a bad thing if you have debt. Govs will not raise rates because that would kill off recovery so they will tolerate high inflation.

Inflation=high gold price.

Fres is a long term hold. $3000 gold is attainable I think. We have a 2-3 bagger from these levels in a year or two. I will still be here then so you can see if I am right or wrong. LOL

Alyhels, if this by some miracle hits £20 in the next 3-4 months due to investor exuberance, grab it with both hands and never look back. In time, this will be valued normally and you can never get away from earnings per share. Remember this now has fewer ships. Don't be greedy. If you made 30%, take profit. If you are stuck with shares from 30s, you have a long long way to get there unless all of a sudden, it gains massive pricing power.

Dekiany, Ah yes, but do you know how many shares has been added since the start of the pandemic? My £30 SP is based at the start..... So when do you think this is going cash positive so that it can come off life support (share sale)? This needs $1.5b every 2 months I reckon to stave off covenant and every time they sell shares, the vampire brokers take another 10% of your money!

Another 4 months? 6 months? 8?

Anyone else managed to get in on some 1040p action? Only lasted about 10 min. I can't believe it. With Gold and 1875, and silver 2400, it is a no brainer.

Fres has been sold off to chase risk assets but the fizz has died off now and reality prevails. There will need to be a hell of a lot of investments to repair the damage caused by virus. There will need to be a lot of money printing so my prediction of $2000 gold by time Biden steps in office is still pretty much valid.

Time to gloat. Was I right or was I right about capital raise? Classical timing too. Soon as SP pops up, bang, more shares issued. Every month more shares until they can finally generate positive cashflow. Come the end of this pandemic, this could well have double the number of shares compared to the start. So if the SP was £30 back then, with double the shares, it would be pretty much fully valued at £15? This is no longer the same company as the beginning and it is a very long road back to £30.

Those people who are still thinking of £30 a share by spring needs to think again and adapt your holding strategy/trading strategy accordingly. Short term, long term.

I trade using spreadbets on IG and they have pretty good charts as standard. They have a decent sharedealing service with pretty low fees too. Same charts are available on that. If your broker doesn't provide free charting, then it is probably time to ditch them. A lot of old fashion brokers/banks still have old charging and basically a rip off.

Q, If you saw my earlier post, you will see that I had call the resistance at around 1370 so when it got to the 1360s, I had to trust the charts and close it down. They will almost certainly bounce around there and I feel with this, it is better to use the limit than the stop because I seem to always just get stopped out if you use a big stop, that just defeats the purpose as you end up making no money! Years of trial and error.

You are gifted with this opportunity because of the vaccine news. Well played. There will be plenty more stimulus so this is just a blip I feel. I closed all my longs down this morning and can't believe my luck with today so I am going long again after banking another load!

I am a little surprised it broke 1150 support and went to 1105. Let's see if this is a blip or a reversal for PMs. Gold is holding its support of 1850 and may well rally from there once dust settles. I have got my money on blip. Will be watching overnight action.

Bernie, are you the same person as pappalazz?

It is the 3 Fs that you need to rent. Not buy. If it floats, flies, or f*cks, then rent it. Cheaper.

Wow, you know a lot about ships pappa

I am still sceptical about big sell off and I am not sure Biden has the power to lock down whole country. In any event, the election has proven that there is no appetite publicly for lockdo5wn of the types in March. Trump's anti lockdown message resonated with voters who are more concerned with liberty and livelihood than with one set of data.

At best there will be lockdown lite and it may rattle market by 10% but I doubt it would be 30-40% of march. In any event, if there is more lockdown, Biden would do more printing and that would be another big leg up for gold. $2250?

Don't give up on PMs now. Big sell off day is at least 2 years away. Only when investors start questioning money printing and widespread default. Right now, money will be printed to prop up whatever is still standing.

Looks like Biden is giving gold a big leg up. I didn't expect it to get here so soon and I am not complaining. Looks like next target would be 1375 ish for this. Yum yum....

On paper they have enough cash to last until spring but there is this thing called debt covenant that means your capital to debt ratio cannot fall below a point determined by the terms of the debt. These are small prints that you need to trawl through the reports to find. Think of it with something you are familiar with like house mortgage. If the house value drops 20%, then the lender can't lend you same amount of money come time to renew your mortgage and you will have to top up your equity. For CCL, that would have to come from share issues because it currently has no revenue but very big outgoings each month.

That aside, I stayed in a hotel across the port in Southampton last week and a Norwegian cruise line ship was there. They are a massive beast with waterslides on top. Very impressive. By far the biggest structure for miles around. I wished cruising would restart but I am a realist.

So looks like it is not a clear cut Biden win but they will take the house of rep and republicans senate. Looks like it will take longer for the stimulus to be passed and the size will probably be smaller. It is not great for gold but it is not bad either because Feds could push the interest rate down further in the absence of fresh printing.

In short, I guess gold will remain around 1900 for quite a while and FRES will probably rise to around 1300 in the short term if no negative news comes out.

Looks like there is still not certainty of substantial restarting by March so I am guessing that there will be another capital raise in 3-4 weeks time for another $billion or two. Guessing this will be in the 700s by then.