Member Info for carvegyber

Trading? Great idea. I do it all the time and I have just bought at 1200p. Easy 100pips. Just beware that you could be left off the bandwagon very swiftly. I was happily trading the arbitrage between the lag on this and the PM prices but this run left me stranded at 850p. Bought back at 1130p so I lost 170p there by being out.

I have made many calls and got lucky and got quite a few right and I would say this will close today close to the day's high of 1300....

I have made my bet again....

Exit? This is the golden opportunity to top up. Technical retrace. If gold doesn't drop back to sub $1600 levels, Fres will be massively rerated. Already you have seen we added $200m to the cash pile based on previous 6 month's metal prices with a big hole in March. Just imaging what it will be like for H2. It is going to be mahooosive.

This is just the tehnical bounce holding back the price. PMs will regain grounds lads. Hold your nerves. Don't let MMs take your money.

$2000 is a hard barrier to break and traders know this so when it nears that number, traders will be looking for any trigger to take profit and USD firming was it. It has risen very hard so the fall is big. Nothing to worry about lads. Fundamentals still good for Gold and it make take a few more charge to break $2000 so be patient. Another big US China spat ought to do it. I think China will lose patience with US soon if they keep pushing and bring out a big gun to destabilise the USD. The Chinese have not been the aggressors so far. It has all been the Trump admin.

On the results side, I was right and I was wrong. I was right in that there would be a boost to the cash pile but I was wrong in the size of it. I thought there would be a $75-100m boost. I didn't think that there would be a $200m boost. Must be the lower opex that I haven't factored in. Less fuel, less workforce, less contractors etc.

With gold prices way up, it strikes me that it is worth waiting until half year results in August before selling? That should show a massive improvement. Why sell now? This is way undervalued at current gold price.

Oh guys, I am not normally one to give out tips but it is worth taking a position on Newmont before their results on 30th Jul. I reckon they will be announcing a great set of results similar to when Fres will announce. I know they are US based but most brokers will trade them.

Yes, very confident on those conservative fag pack stuff. Depending on the average PM price achieved, I think ebitda could be as big as $500m and that would see a surplus of over $150m. It is lookng very positive with one trip up which was silver spent 6 weeks of H1 in the doldrums but gold did relatively much better so it will average out.

Very rough figures. According to my very ballpark calculations, we should have an H1 EBITDA of just over $400m. Cash burn in capex and divi will be $330m so that should leave us with a surplus of over $70m. After couple of years of burning cash, this would be a very welcomed return to cash positive when this would be massively rerated. This was only marked down because market was expecting it to raise more cash but that looks remote now. How fortune has turned. Anyone still remember Nickel Investor's doom and gloom and scaremongering? LOL.

H2 would easily see surplus cash of $200-300m if PM stays around this level until YE. If it goes up further, then jeez....This could be debt free in 18months.

Can't wait for tomorrow to come around and I think there will be another 4-5% lift which would get us to 1300p. At these PM prices, these should be 1500p but I feel the results will be the one to lift the lid on that possibility. We can then see that this is spinning off cash again rather than burning it.

H2 will be MEGA but we won't know the results until March 21.

Divi in sept has already been announced. FRES traditionally pays 1/3 of profits in divi so last year they made $205m. It is $0.15 for the year and the interim is normally much smaller than the final.

Next year it will be based on this year's results so it should be bumper. I would expect around $0.40 to 0.50 for next year. We would have a big load of cash as well which would be great to pay down debt.

I agree BTB. I can't see that CBs have room to raise rates in the next 6 months or even stop QE. They wan't 3-4% inflation to happen first before they even consider raising rates. Meanwhile, PM will just keep climbing. With inflation back on the scene, it could well be turbocharging for gold. Who knows what price is realistic.$2000 will be a hard ceiling to break I think but gold will get there very quickly. It has blown the lid off the $1920 barrier decisively.

I heard the news on BBC radio today and common wisdom says when it hits mainstream news, sell. I am not sure....

BTB, how are CBs going to put a lid on gold when zero or negative interest rates make gold attractive. Only reason people still buy bonds (competitor of gold) is CB buying them so bidding up the price or bond speculators are counting on the prices keep going up. Or you hold $ but that seems to be out of favour since they appear determined to devalue it by printing more helicopter money. Another round of free money to the citizens are on the cards.

Silver traditionally outpaces gold when they appreciate and looking back at history, silver should be at $30 very quickly and has a real chance to break $50 very soon. The silver's rise has JUST begun....

Fres, should be £20 soon. Results tomorrow should give this another leg up and great timing with the PM bull run. Hold your nerves lads.....

Fres still has ways to go at these PM prices. 1500p should be gained very quickly.

The market has already caught on to the fact of the effect of PM prices but the shackles on FRES was mostly production fears due to covid and ore grades but now that has been put to rest so the shackles are off. I think the market will now start to rerate it according to the PM prices so we might have ways to go and H1 report will just give it that little boost. I do really think these will go over 1500p very quickly and there is a chance of 2000p by year end.

Hold your nerves lads. I told you yesterday that it was an arbitrage opportunity and I suspect quite a few got shaken off.

A few more days to H1 results. No significant impact to production but reduced opex and high PM prices is going to turn out a good set of results vs H1 19 when this was mercilessly battered due to high capex and low production. One more week and you will rewarded then. If you want to take some profit, wait and see then, then it is up to your strategy but it looks like there is much more upside in H2 with even higher PM prices and production increase. This could be one to hold for the next 18 months for a 2 bagger if PM stays around here or higher.

I think this is another arbitrage opportunity so it is time to really take a position. I reckon anyone brave will be rewarded generously but I am not a sage so please don't bet the house. Lol.

I am increasing my spreadbets as it drops.

Don;t worry. Results will be good. The way they present their results which solely focusses on comparing yoy will mean that H1 20 will be much better than H1 19 so it will be a massive improvement. H1 19, gold was languishing sub $1300, silver $15 but H1 20, gold is $1700, silver $17-18. The only shame is that silver wasn't at that high level for the whole 6 months due to covid. We should still be looking at $200m extra cash over H1 19 so whichever way you slice it,it will look massive. Expect a big jump is SP and reratings....

H2 is looking like humongous if PMs stay here or higher. $20 a share or even higher by year end! This will throw off so much cash and divis will be hiked that it will become irresistable.

I loaded up more 850p and will take a view after digesting results and PM prices come announcement.

I believe Penoles group got an exemption from the mexican government due to their smelting activities to be considered essential and that is why FRES wasn't shut down like the other miners. As to MAG read, the increase amount has been allocated for in the company's past communications and is relatively small compared to their capex spend of $500m for the year. I don't think the issues you highlighted are issues that will impact FRES significantly. Especially considering the much bigger impact of massively increased cashflow to due high PM prices.

You can also use CFD if it is a bit more long term.

Spreadbetting is the best way to hedge. You need to work out the amount per point. Very cost effective for short term hedge.