Member Info for carvegyber

Kernow, this lot appears to me as astonishingly bad at issuing price positive news releases. It feels like they either are clueless at how to appease the UK market or they don't give a damn as investors make up such a small % of shareholding that we are irrelevant. This is the bad thing about a family run business.... I know this isn't in the strict sense but in many ways, it resembles it.

This has been dogged by lower grades and high costs and in the midst of high capex, it has been eating into cash. Luckily, it has lots of cash and also now that PM prices is up, it should see it preserve its cash through the high capex period which is this year and the next. After that, the figures should look very good.

We also have July's result which should compare very favourably with H1 last year and I would be interested to see how market would react. That is one event I am waiting for. After that, I don't think there is much upside until 2021 unless PM prices go another 10% up from here and stays there. Then we will have another $200m of extra profits and that would completely change the investment picture.

Gold silver ratio almost back to 100. Looks like normal(ish) service resuming for silver pre lockdown where it was around 90 to 100. It went over 120 at one point. We need pm prices to stay up over these levels and we should have a good H1 report in July which would provide a very good comparison to H1 last year. Hopefully that would give the stock a big boost.

I thought this too and have cleared out all equities apart from miners. Makes no sense that this will be the worst recession on record for the world and yet ftse100 went up to 6200. Kept a shedloads to buy good stocks on the way down. Even mighty Tesco is hit. They have already said they are facing higher costs and that can only translate to higher prices in the future. I hope the selloff is not too steep because traders will then sell gold to cover margins. Inflationary recession anyone? I sell sports equipment and I will have to put my prices up. Can't think of anyone who has lower cost as a result of this except you are using energy but then, there are no customers.

PM is spiking up massively. Quick buy FRES before it catches up....

Looks like Jerome Powell gave the market a reality check and it is risk off again so great for gold. On a mini charge now. I think EU front may provide the next lift. If they can't agree free money for Spain or Italy, then it will spook the market. Can you imagine Italian debt to gdp at 200% when Euro is effectively too expensive for them and they can't deflate out of trouble. Would you buy a BMW or a Fiat? Pretty much the same for France. German court has already ruled the ECB rescue for Italy few years ago illegal so I can't see Merkel being allowed to agree to more. The dutch will not agree to grants so it is in a big mess. EU has a habit of fudging this and kicking the can but bond buyers are not convince. How is Italy ever going to pay back it's debt? Who apart from ECB is going to buy Italian debt at less than 3%? They are junk bonds.

Should say 'entered'

Looks like gold and silver has ended a consolidation phase. Actually, it has stayed in it just that bit longer than I would like which seems to indicate hesitation about the viability of further rises. We need a strong event to firmly blow past 1700 to hit 1800. Looking at the price action, I think silver will have a much bigger leg up than gold if this happens because the world is starting to open up again. As to what that event could be, god knows but an Iranian missile fired at a US ship should do it. Or negative rates.

what do you think the reason is for this?

They are effectively an explorer relying on development to get to production so having the cash to do it is obviously good news because they won't go bust before they managed to get any silver out of the ground. FRES is completely in a different boat. Penoles from what I can gather, has much more other businesses so not really a full proxy for FRES SP.

If $35/bbl is the breakeven point has anyone worked out how long can GKP continue to operate with Brent at $30 before the cash level gets too low?

I reckon gold is just returning to levels from few days ago before the dash for cash. The pattern is well established now: Market crash, gold gets sold to fund margin calls, then expectations of more QE and gold breaks previous highs. This last round was caused by negative oil and all eyes are on feds printing presses again now.... this will be going on for a couple more months I reckon. I think tycoons will be queuing up for bailouts. They should make them contribute the first tranche.

If they were cancelling it they would have notified.

Hit my target of $14.50 silver but I didn't have time to open a trade. Missed it. Spread was a bit big as well.

carnage in the oil market has spooked everyone and market crash round 4. I am now looking to double down on my silver position closely. I reckon $14.50 would be a good point. No doubt feds will come out with printed money to buy oil bonds soon to prevent mass defaults in the oil producers.

Just wondering if I should double down on my silver bet. It keeps getting knocked back down every time this pokes it's head above $15.50. Very frustrating.

That was unprecedented....thought I had seen it all then we get surprised. Guess producers just have to stop pumping until the world opens up which I am guessing is about 6 weeks away. It will go negative again if there are still contracts to unwind. Settlement date is 25th so might be more to come.

No idea what you said last year? What relevance is oil at $37?

Price action is a bit unusual this morning. I wonder if there is a leak ahead of the Q1 production report that is overdue.

Who is Jamie?

Good Friday all. Further to what I posted about the bullion market of New York and London recently, here is another view that I picked up from an article:

Whatever your views on the future of gold and silver prices, it’s clear there have been some serious problems in the gold market over the last few weeks.

The price of gold has completely diverged in two important ways. You’ve probably heard about the first. Or experienced it, if you tried to buy gold lately.

The physical gold price is well above the financial market price. There are shortages of physical gold, allowing gold sellers to demand far more than the price quoted on exchanges.

But the second divergence is more interesting. It’s a divergence between the financial market price of gold in London and New York. Those are the two premier gold trading hubs of the world.

The trouble is, the price difference between them keeps spiking. Spreads between COMEX futures and London spot prices hit $100 at one point.

Here’s how Yahoo Finance covered just how strange things are getting in the gold market:
“You have a bunch of shell-shocked market makers who are literally hiding under their desks and do not and possibly can not make markets in any size, shape or form,” said David Govett, head of precious metals trading at Marex Spectron. “Hence we have the lack of liquidity, the small volumes and the wide spreads.”
What’s interesting about this is that the explanations for it don’t make sense to me. The most common explanation is that there were concerns that participants in the US futures market were struggling to deliver on the tiny amount of physical gold they sometimes have to. They asked London to help out and did so by making London’s version of standardised gold bars valid in the US, despite the differences in measurements.

Here’s the problem with that explanation. If the US futures market is breaking down, why is the price higher there? Surely it should be lower.

If London has the more credible price with the better supply of gold, it should be less risky and therefore less discounted. If the US’s COMEX is struggling to provide the physical gold, its contracts should be less credible and worth less.
All this suggests a reckoning at some point. A spike in the gold price as there’s a rush to get hands on physical gold instead of paper speculation.

"Fascinating..."