Member Info for carvegyber

FRES on track to reenter by being 90th or above on the ftse list:

Among those are utilities group Pennon , gambling company GVC Holdings , asset manager Intermediate Capital Group and mining group Fresnillo .

I need 2 apologies. LMAO

Sorry for the rhetorical posts chaps. MMs playing games with us poor retail FRES holders. Really hope someone was able to take advantage of it. I will shut up now and let the market take its course. My work of dispelling NI's myth is done.

Where is that chap who came on early doors demanding an apology?

No doubting your decade long expertise on FRES or Poly whatsoever. You sound upset and need to chill.

I am just doubting your reading of the market this morning that it is not driven by MMs who were driving the order books. Just curious about how it went from 6% down to 3% up in a few hours. If you read what the market drivers were up to, you could have banked a 10% profit. £10 a point and that would be a tidy few hundred quid.

Really Sasa? Why is it blue now? Haha

The real numbers are H1 v H2, H1 bled cash of $200m and that is why market punished it dragging it from 1000p plus to where it is today. H2 has net cash outflow of $26, which is largely neutral when you consider the turnover to be $1.1b per half year. There is no reason for it to drop apart from the scary headline and that is why I wouldn't be surprised if this turned well blue today.

Has it turned blue yet? MM shenanigans. Hope you guys got some on the cheap.

There is no big drop from H1. Apologies not needed and you are the one that needs to apologise. Cash end of H1 is $365, cash end of year is $336. I was pretty much on the money. Cash is about neutral. This is what I predicted. At worse a small drop.

Price may well turn blue shortly once investors look past the headlines.

Can someone please tell me if we qualify for promotion, this will happen next Wednesday?

There are 2 things in play here. One is the silver price and one is FRES price. FRES price gets hammered multiples when silver price goes down because that is the market perception of FRES. Silver and gold on the other hand, are holdings that traders may liquidate to cover their margin calls on stocks that they think have the most potential to go up or any positions that they have taken and they do not wish to sell yet. In that situation, you sell the least painful holding.

The way the market works is that if most of the trades are on the sell side and not many buyers, then the prices could get overbought very quickly. This is what you call a panic mentality and even when you don't panic, you just stay on the sideline which accentuates the fall.

IMO, if silver prices is supportive today and tomorrow, we could get a good rise.

Red Lee, I think you are right in that sell risky assets mentality. I do remember that during 2009 when both gold and silver took a hit along with the miners. Trouble back then was banks didn't trust each other. So even if your business is sound, you find credit hard to come by and therefore lots of companies had to default. It is very different this time all though the mentality would be sit on cash and see how it plays out for the coming weeks. I hardly blame them. I would do the same but the timing is really bad as we would have really good news in a few days and I want to make some money from that. Fingers crossed things stabilise.

With earnings of most companies now being brought into question unless you made CV test kits, how is PM prices not moving up and PM miners not moving up in multiples I don't understand. How much longer can silver and FRES be held back? Silver has decoupled big time from Gold and taking FRES with it even though half of FRES is golden!

I think the results will be very good. This was hammered when the profits dropped below the level of Capex in H1 and it started bleeding cash. H2 should see that turn around with profits back up to around $300m and becoming cash neutral or even slight surplus. It depends on how much market has priced this in and my guess is that they haven't. It is all down to the difference between PM prices of H1 and H2

I think there is the buying the dip mentality whereby while rates are low and Governments are printing money, it will still be positive for equities.... Because that is where cheap money can get highest return. I guess those that want to stay safe buy gold.

I have double down on my spreadbet this morning. I think next week will be good.

Oh, every king needs a queen and silver is it.

At the end of the day, there is only one king of safe haven status and that is physical gold. Everything else has a counterparty risk as we have seen with Yen. When the momentum swings, you get stranded with your pants down. Gold is king in times of stress.

Silver savagely taken down again once it poked its head above 1850. Someone somewhere is very keen to defend that 1850 mark. I hope this dam get busted and busted big time. Cue dam buster tune.....

Right, FRES is rounding the bend now and let's see if I am right about the rises in the week leading up to results. I have some spreadbet money on this.... come on Fres.

Yen seems to have decoupled recently from safe haven status because investors have finally lost faith in the QE effectiveness, the size of their debt and also that they have lots of coronavirus cases. I see GBP becoming safe haven status after we are finally out of EU actually because we don't have big debt and we are not governed by other jurisdiction. USD traditionally appreciates because most people hold it when they cash out of equity.

There could even be CV induced inflation as supply chain and panic buying makes items scarce, it will lead to big price spikes and you know when prices go up, they don't come back down!

Thanks for the views BTB and Dave. I think the chart persuaded me to wait. I keep thinking that this CV thing has to be much worse already. It is just that some countries are not well equipped to pick it up yet. It must knock 10-15% off the indexes when they peaked so the money have to be parked somewhere. It will take a few more weeks before this has any chance of getting better.

I also think that this has served as a wake up call to investors that all the QE can't fix EVERYTHING. You either say blast it and don't worry about quarantine or when the virus spreads, it WILL disrupt the bottom line of many many industries. Consumer related items will obviously be hit hardest.