Member Info for carvegyber

Nickel, I believe you got your facts wrong. From the half year report, I can see that the Capex for the year is $655m and the EBITDA is $300m for 6 months. Not a year! 1st half has 20% lower PM prices so it follows that if production maintains, which is what we are led to believe, then the EBITDA H2 will be circa $500m since the PM prices affects only the revenue not the expenditure. Therefore cash generated will be some $150m ($800m-$655m) more than the capex. This and cash in hand will finance the divi so I don't see how there is going to be a cash issue. It will all become clear in Feb when they report but as long as silver and gold stays around these or higher prices for the rest of the year, this will be fine!

I would love for you to point out where I got my calculations wrong. I have pointed out your mistake. Thanks.

If gold and silver remain the same, then I think we will probably have to wait until closer to end of feb for the SP to get to decent levels when the FY prelim reports are out. I would fully expect 4 figures again. Gold and silver doesn't seem to want to head south for as long as there is global recession on the cards.....stocks are highly valued and earnings are depressed while bond yields are low so might as well stick some money is safe haven of gold and silver. I am still to see the supply squeeze on silver that bulls seem to be predicting for the past 5 years!

Redknight, there is no question that H2 revenue would be 10-15% higher than H1. I had a look through the charts of silver and gold price. Spookily, the prices effectively moved to current levels squarely at the start Jul. If it stays, which looks like it would, then our revenue would be back to H2 2018 levels when the SP were in 4 figure Ps. Only question remains is what sort of costs will the company incur. I suspect quite a lot of analysts are now starting to realise the effect of Gold and Silver price on the bottom line.

If only more people had been able to reason and study this share with objectivity, they could have saved their hard earned. I kept hearing people sinking large amounts to average down and it is so frustrating to not be able to get through. I even tried hard not to attack the person and focus on the figures and reasoning at hand but often just get met with anger and jest. Ultimately, we have been conned by PL and the Chinese which is pathetic.

Am I right in saying that this company has effectively gone bust? No Trin, no indon, no Georgia = no future. Why is it still worth £4m? Quick scan shows that they are even thinking about going into Kindergarten business. Someone needs to end this sorry fiasco now. I feel sorry for those LTHs like Erratic Phil, Bobo and even Celticheart whom I found to be incredible when considering so much evidence is mounting up that the company is unsustainable yet they won't admit it. Just astounding

I feel bad for the long suffering LTHs. I have been warning for years that the Chinese's only interest is to use AIM to drive this into the ground while hogging assets. This will either fold or you will get diluted to oblivion. There is no way out unless by miracle you hit a 3000bpd gusher which is impossible on the acreage that RRL has. It costs too much to get it to profit making even in today's oil price.

Just imagine if you sold up when I had suggested rather than sunk more money in and then put that money into something safe like GSK, how much more would you have now.... The numbers stare you in the face. They don't stack up and why do people invest in this I just cannot understand.

Hello all LTHs and newbies. Some of you will know me and I have been telling people not to buy this share for years. I hate to see investors throwing good money into pockets of unscrupulous Chinese shysters. There is no where to go for this company in the long term except for dilution after dilution. If they did a massive dilution to pay down debt, it might have been better off but instead, they are using it for operations while there is money in the bank.

It continues to bleed cash and when the interests need to be paid on the LO facilities, there will be blood in 2 year's time. I have to pinch myself that I have noted that something was wrong at 7p when dogpog was right about Landau and chased off. I did research of my own and cut this loose at 5p but still people were piling in. So many arguments here with uber bulls that I lost count. If only you had listened to me, you would have salvaged a lot of your money. Good to see Celticheart gone. What a plank he was.

Thanks, Had a think today and here is what I think of the whole state of play now having been out and on the sidelines and being able to think objectively about it: MA is clearly in the know and has big influence in how the company is run as shown by the sidelining of old management. He is also no mug. He wants a significant exposure in the company so he must be quite bullish about its prospect. However, he doesn't seem to want to pay over 21p at this point and he will pick them up happily at 15p. To get to production, there is another $100m of investment needed so there is a need to raise funds. I gather they had difficulty raising funds in the past because the size of resource meant the ROI wasn't big enough to warrant the loan risks. So they are drilling now to fix this. MA seem to be confident and he is also now very much aligned with us in that he would not want to see his share diluted so he will be going for a loan scenario. Only question is, what price does it come at? Also, can we be sure they then don't change the rules and allow MA to buy more shares if there was a placing beyond the 40%? I have seen this rule bent a couple of times in AIM. First gold pour is 18 months away so if you are investing in the long term, there seems to be plenty of time to get in. In the mean time, there are short term risks of what additional resource can be added and what cost the finance will take. There is no doubt that even if the two risks perform badly, the SP will probably still be quite a bit more in 3 years' time after production if gold price doesn't crash below $1000. In the short term, after the buying of the remaining 100k, the SP will very probably drift ever so slowly until news of drill results and finance which should be in the next 2-3 months. A good result could see the price shoot up so I would definitely be looking to buy in around 15-16p mark. Not heavily, just to trade on a good result. I will then probably stay on the sidelines again until closer to 2019....

Hi Pabs, what do you think will happen to the SP once the 150k shares are acquired by concert party? Management changes looks very encouraging. We have all suffered under the car crash that is Dekel

I think these BBs are for discovery of viewpoints and information to help us make hopefully better judgement on our investments. I wasn't dissing the company at all. I just couldn't see the "news" that sparked the price drop so I was baffled. My own reasons for staying on the sidelines for now has been clear. Over this uncertain period until drilling and funding is confirmed, I am happy to miss any gains or loss that goes with the share. It is just my strategy on this. Nothing more. However, if it gets compellingly cheap, I might dip my toes... Oli, I actually think with that large holding, MA's interest is mostly aligned with shareholders so in that sense, it is big comfort to hold. He has put a lot of money (and still putting) behind it so he must have a good degree of confidence in this.

Pablo, hardly knocking the company. What I wanted to know in my post is what is the "news" that you are referring to in your post to cause what you say to be "sell the news" price drop. That is what I don't get. I think you need to read my post again....I don't see any good news or bad news that we don't already know.

Can't understand why it is dropping so heavily on a harmless results? nothing in there we don't know? Was 22p not long ago so almost 20% drop? Very strange... I am keeping my eyes on this and timetable to buy back in is to see how the drilling campaign fares and likelihood of getting finance. 15p seems to be the floor for this so if it dips around that, I might pick some up.

You in this too?!. I have had a string of very bad luck in my investments lately. Real kiss of death. Don't listen to tips from me.

Looks like I sold out a few days too soon. I didn't count on MA getting an extension for his share purchase. He has another 1.9m to buy. Looks like he may push up the SP depending on how much he is willing to pay in the short term. He has sort of hedged his bet with taking some of the CNs too so a ceiling of 30p is set for the short term. No point for me to chase this now. It would only for a short term flip. I will be back once more resource has been proved up and the numbers look better for finance under the BFS. There is a long road to production....

I am out guys. After 5 years in this, I am happy to be out with a small loss. This could well do very well in the longer term and judging by the buys from MA, this is considered undervalued by those in the know. However, from what I can gather in the RNS, they are stuck. They can't get finance or a good sale price unless they can show a larger resource. Someone here once said that this project is good but not that attractive in terms of ROI. I had a churn of the numbers then and I can see his point. Therefore in light of the uncertainty on this score, and the fact that raising a short term bond is very risky (bondholders can put the company into admin), I will stay on the sidelines to see how things play out. GL guys

Looks like MA is back in the market buying but at this rate, he won't get to the quota unless he goes hell for leather....

Frustrating indeed. I think we need to watch the trades leading up to April. If it is clear the buying has ramped up, then we need to just let it play out....

can people please stop selling at this price? Can't they see MA wants to buy? They only have a week to go so FFS just hold on for a week!

I am really surprised that market still hasn't cotton on to the director's aggressive buying in the run up to the deadline. This stock has really fallen under the radar then...

It doesn't matter now in a way because if they are intent to buy 350k's worth a day, it will push up the price considerably. They only managed 900k in the silent 2 weeks! I shall expect fireworks....