Member Info for carvegyber

Looks like the 20p stocks might be drying up and they still have another 5m to buy in 5 weeks. Should see another climb on the price when they up the buying rate.... I thought they were gonna continue with their 500k a day but it looks like they just eased off.

with 5.8m shares left to buy, if indeed that is the case, then he will have to buy 3-400k shares a day before the deadline. Let's see if the buying continues in the pattern of bursts, then let it slip back... Dekel needs to ramp this. Lol.

Annoying that there is a 19p seller early doors that push the price down but now it looks like MA is back to having to pay 21p again. Judging by the lack of big trades, the 21p stocks might dry up soon and he might have to start paying more soon.... Here's to hoping. If he has to pay more, then I think we might push 40-50p if TO is the end game. I all PIs hold, then we will be better off in the end. Just imo.

I think on current trajectory, they will get the full 48% with the price around 30p. At which point, that shall be the offer price to all. In that scenario, there really isn't any point to vote no and hang on to your shares because you don't know what will happen to your shares in the future if it delists. Looks increasingly likely to be the end game here. Dekel could sneak out more positive RNSs to ramp this so that he gets him and us more for his shares! I do wonder what is China non ferrous thinking... they haven't made a move! Personally I would be happy with 32p and I would be blasé about what could have been. This is shark infested AIM and I have lost 6 figure sums here. This would be one of the handful successes if it makes 32p. GL mate.

Thanks for that Pablo. Any views on what will happen if they trigger a mandatory offer? As expected, the SP is drifting back for the weekend. Looks like they are disciplined buyers. They fill the bulk of their daily 500k early doors and then let the 20p small time sellers stew before picking them up once it drifts back. I have done that so many times when I set a sell limit then once the SP falls, I drop my sell limit to get my shares sold. Then the SP takes off again... I expect more big buys at 20-21p again Monday morning. Let's see if there are more RNS about today's buying...

In the scenario that MA goes over the 40% and the last buy price is 30p say, he would trigger the mandatory offer. Does the Article and association stipulate what form that mandatory offer is to take? Is it a stipulated premium to the 30p or is it something that the other shareholders have a chance to vote on? If it is down to a vote, what premium do you think would be voted through and what happens if not voted through? Anyone with facts and thoughts?

Pabs, looks like he has bought up his quota of 500k shares early doors today. Seems like this is what he will do. Let's see if it continues tomorrow. No more action for the day I think so the price may drift a little into the weekend. It will stay at this level for a few days now because I don't think he will have trouble mopping up couple million more shares at 20-21p levels until the 20/1p sellers like OLI dries up.... 20p is an attractive and psychological level for many. How many more shares can you make out that he has to buy until his 40% according to the RNSs? You seem to have a good handle on this.

Yes, he seems intent on buying up his allowance so we have couple of more weeks to see if he does buy up his quota. The questions on everyone's mind is, why is he doing that? Here's some thinking: From a voting rights POV, I think 35% to 40% doesn't make a great deal of difference considering how many shares other directors and IIs hold. He will still have control so he doesn't have to keep buying so therefore, the motivation must be one of value. Either value from POV that this would be worth multiples in a few year's time therefore warranting lots of his skin in the game, or value that someone is likely to pay a lot more than current levels for the company. He already has control because Dekel can't stop what he wants to do as long as it is in the interest of shareholders. Alternatively, he wants to pay the minimum price possible for taking over the company so buying up his quota would be sensible. This does make the 13th Feb RNS seem a bit confounding. He doesn't have to put that out. Dekel could have put it out on the sly to push the SP as a game.... MA won't be pleased with him though. Dekel could do that because MA is not an executive. It is also likely that MA is a frontman for Russian money which makes takeover more likely. Either way, I am convinced that there is probably little risk to hold until april to see what happens. In any case, for a moment I thought this was a goner and I had pretty much written my shares off and indeed almost push the sell button at rock bottom. Therefore, I will just hold until further news. Don't care if this slides back!

I get the impression the pace of the buying has sped up considerably since the new year. Am I correct? If yes, what's the hurry especially considering that the price is well up! This whole market is underpinned by one buyer who seems to be in a hurry? AT 500,000 a day, he will get to the full quota in 10 days!

What I cannot understand is that it has been days since the 13 feb announcement and months since the CM's intent on buying is clear so why the sudden BIG jump in price now? If it was PIs buying, why would they want to chase it up this high if as OLI said, there would be no news for a while.... Something is up. Either CM is speeding up his buying or something else is going on. My guess is that we will get RNS after hours. I hope it is not we know of nothing to cause this rise.....

Here's my take. There won't be financing news until after the BFS. The financing news could take 2 form. A. Just bank loans or B. Equity based/related loans/bonds/placing etc. Like I said, there is no point to raise any money now that there is sufficient to take this to conclusion of BFS. Coupled with the chairman's buying at 15p, it seems to underline a floor for any future placing to happen at a much higher SP than what it is currently. Therefore, the most likely outcome is that the CM will continue buying at 15-25p range, then chuck out good news to ramp the SP beyond 30p before doing any deals that may involve dilution. The fact that he is buying is a very very good sign that whatever the end game will be, it will be at a considerably higher price than now. My guess is over 30p but what do I know. My strategy is now to hold and sell on news.

Oli, Yes, I have seen many times companies release positive sounding news like oil shows, gold find bla bla just to ramp the shares for a placing. This could fit because of the recent RNS but the only piece of the puzzle that doesn't fit is that if that is the intention, why is the Chairman buying up millions of shares on the market with his own cash? Wouldn't a placing dilute his own holdings and lose him money? Might as well buy at the placing or post placing....

Pab, now now, don't get too optimistic. Lol. I have made that mistake many times. The same theme of do I sell or do I hold I can see playing out in different ways across the board today which is really nice to see. No idiots here and all the posters here seem genuine which is a nice change compared to some of the other boards. I am in the same conundrum of do I sell? Good to see that spread has tighten which is a very good sign to say market has made up its mind to push it up.

Yes, looks like someone paid 19p. Is there a leak? I have seen these things before a day or two before RNS. Spread is a bit big at the moment which could be MMs playing games. So hard to tell and I am no expert. I just hope we break 20p and stay up. I am holding until next news.

Been a shareholder from way back when this was 50p. Got an average of 23p and kicking myself for not av down at sub 10p. Never mind. Two things: If we get notice that Chairman is still buying at 17p and above, then that would indicate his intent to keep buying until his boots are filled. It would give me confidence to hold until 25p say. Otherwise, we will have to wait and see if there are more transformational news. At the rate this SP is going, if any sort of a takeover deal is done, it will be at over 30p but these things could take months. They can't be in discussion for a TO because chairman is still buying. It would be in a closed period so no directors can buy. Am I right on this? For now, I am just glad to see my substantial losses evaporating... nice change.

Thanks for that Daisan, I just used a linear projection from the last interim and I got to around mid this year which is very very soon. The had $5.2m June 15 and expenses run at around $1.5m plus exploration of around $1m for 6 months. I assume the expenses would remain the same but the exploration/capex side is hard to call. With the FS, I would imagine some money would have been spent there as well. On the upside is, Dekel has said a number of times that there are several other buyers/JV options in the mix. The only question left is has Dekel got a tendency for over hyping those prospects to keep shareholders happy?

I am a long suffering holder here and am now quite encouraged by the optimised FS. I do agree with the reading between the lines of this RNS so I am considering adding to my holding. Does anyone know how long our cash will last before we have to raise more money to keep the lights on?

For a 100% gain, you have better odds betting on red or black at a roulette so why bother with this? The RNS already said so. Unviable. If shareholders don't get wiped out, I would be staggered.

Looks like this is it. Another one of my crap investments. Wrote this off couple of years ago.....

from the recent bod moves, I am guessing that they will take this private. The chinese have got this on the cheap and the brits have fecked up. The western fundraising suck investor blood capital model has failed. The state controlled capitalism has triumphed. Write off investment now....