Member Info for carvegyber

Here comes my second chance to take profit.... what do you think. Leave it another day? I am still thinking this would peak at 800p+ come 3rd. I would definitely sell some of my position then but can't decide what to do with this spread bet. Let it run or take profit?

I should have put a limit order on my spread bet.....would have had a fat payday. And I should have closed out my long this morning but will I get a second chance today?

How is silver and Fres not 5% up I don't understand. Looks like market is adamant on favouring gold over silver. When is silver going to boom? Even Fres seems to be held down artificially. Surely this should be way north of 750p by now. I think there will be big rises a week before results. Let see if I am correct. Only a few more days to go. When NI appears to bash this, you will know what he is up to.

Dark Knight. H2 figures will show an increase of revenue between $150-200m and that will turn the cashflow positive based on that they told us they spent on Capex. Problem with Nickel investor is that he keeps using H1 figures to bash this but H1 and H2 are two completely different halves. You just need to look at PM prices and see how they jumped significantly right on the button in July and stayed up. Looks like 2020 will be even better but we will need to wait until Aug to get the figures. I see a big rerate by brokers. It is scary that most of them don't bother to do their own sums based on current figures and just use figures that are old news.

Dark Knight, Nickel investor is a basher with problematic maths and analysis. He is definitively wrong about the H2 figures and performance and if you listen to him, if would be your undoing. Too long winded to get into but I have done that at length in the past. Look to my back posts.

And then at the end of the day, it gets pushed down savagely again decoupling from PM prices. Same everyday. Hard not to smell a rat and take advantage of it. My spread bet is doing well now and just looking for a quick exit. Probably around 12pm.

could it be the market makers are aggressively pushing the prices back down again to stock up for tomorrow after selling their stocks at higher prices earlier in the day? Think they are toying with us.

Yes, I keep seeing this price decoupling which is why I brought up the subject of manipulation of silver and I suspect FRES too. I can't help but open a cheeky long position on spread bet. We are very close to results now and if silver is anywhere near $19, then this should be well on a 10% plus gain from this point.

Hope I haven't outsmarted myself. I am sure more profit warnings will be forthcoming. The coronavirus effect has been underpriced by at least 10% by the market. I import goods from China and I have been told my shipment will be delayed.

How is silver not $20+ I don't understand. It does give credence to the manipulation by JPM theory. I hear there is a court case due on this count that may put a stop to it is it correct?

I think a Bernie win could do it.... if we see interest rates anywhere near 5% (not high by historical) then a lot of zombie companies would go under. Gold would go to$2000+ and I guess silver would be $25+

What is the event that rings the bell at the top then? We have to keep an eye out for that. Apple taken over by Amazon? Be something silly like that. Too gung ho with limitless liquidity.... I am not sure it will be so soon. I am guessing it will be 2025 because you need a wage spiral to take place first. Inflation has to be consumer led or broken faith in currency. It doesn't look like it will happen soon in Europe, China or US.

I reckon investors are counting on a string of profit warnings for Q1 and there will not be any appetite for equities. Traders will need to park their money somewhere. I see bitcoin is doing well too. You don't know who is naked until the tide goes out. Which oil company can withstand sub $60 oil and which consumer goods and services company will go bust as a result?

Probably be more QE somewhere and it will not be bad for PM. There will be an almighty inflation at the end of all this. Any bets on which year?

Ah 700p broken. Out by one day. How I have missed you....

My optimistic view is that industrial demand will only be affected in the weeks that factories shut down plus you have to minus 2 weeks of that due to the CNY shutdown. Let's say a quarter so you have 11 weeks of disruption which is around 20% of the year. In terms of percentage to overall silver demand, it is 60%. I am guessing about 50% (generous) of industries in China is affected because the lockdown doesn't affect all cities and industrial area and not all goods are made in china. So you have Half of 60% of 20% which gives you a 6% less demand for the year. That is fairly small disruption considering there will also be a restocking effect once everything goes back online. Considering silver is a very small percentage of most products, the proportionate impact on miners is much smaller when compared to sellers of goods such as Apple. Silver only makes up less than 0.1% of an iphone but the loss revenue of an iphone to Apple is 100% of the retail cost of it. This will impact equities far more than price of silver.

I didn't manage to get back in yesterday in the 660s so will just ride my buy and hold positions. Is this the day we see 700p again?

I reckon before any breakout there will be a big shake so I will watch for any unusual decoupling from silver price movement to take a long position on this. I think with gold and silver where it is, and the money printing going on all over the world, it is safer to go long than go short.

Over the last 2 weeks I have been observing the SP of this closely and it appears there is some manipulation going on with higher than usual drops followed by higher than usual gains linked partly to the silver price. I am going to wait for the next big drop to trade a little since I closed out all my short term long positions yesterday. I think when we are within a week of results, this will be seeing some impressive gains.

This coronavirus thing will almost certainly get worse in the next few weeks before it gets better which will support the PM prices since no investor will want to be too long equities.

Tony, PE ratio is not necessarily the best valuation for resource company. You have to think more resource in the ground because that is all money. It is more complicated but there is a formula with cost of extraction factored in.

I reckon we would see much more. Analyst are now crunching the numbers and realising H2 is a very different half to H1 so people in the know are taking their positions accordingly. I am hoping for 750-800 by March