Member Info for carvegyber

I did some looking into this. Because FRES is owned by penoles and they have a smelter that would cannot be shut down, they have an exemption. Lucky that. Probably have very good high level contacts as well.... just my guess. They are a big group.

Like the guy in the video said: Fascinating....
I think that sort of thinking is starting to drive up the spot price because it signals a shortage albeit short term. About 40% of the world's silver production is currently in lockdown. Anyone hear any more about fres production. I emailed IR but no reply...

We are getting to very interesting times and it is precarious if you are a gold trader.
https://www.numismaticnews.net/article/did-the-london-new-york-markets-default-on-gold-deliveries
This article shows that while there is a big demand shock from lockdown in India and China, there is also a big supply shock in the settling of futures contract due to flights. If more and more traders start demanding physical deliveries as demand for bullions continue, it could well lead to defaults and that would massively spike gold and silver like it did palladium. Nobody is exactly clear on the actual stock of bullions at the moment as there are too many bits of paper clouding the issue. Ultimately, the tide has to go out and you will find out who is naked. There is already a huge premium on bullions but it looks like people are still willing to pay.

BTB, if the fed does a reversal of QE, then gold could well pull back. Even below $1350. However, will fed do it under trump while there is still so much uncertainty over CV and also the balanced power in senate? I doubt it for now so we have clear run for a few more months. The article is a warning sign that gold itself can be a bubble that can be popped and it has warned us what that popper could be. Take heed.

Fed stands ready to print to support economy and liquidity in the world so there is probably much more to come before being reigned in. Hopefully, with the analytical minds on this board, we would see the warning sign and be out.

That is interesting Demo. I wonder why is FRES allowed to produce when everyone else has shut?

That is interesting Democrat. I wonder why is FRES exempted from lockdown?

At the bullion dealer level, the supply of silver has become extremely tight due to limited availability of flights. While demand of consumer goods have dropped, there is still some demand and factories are still producing and silver's antiseptic qualities are useful at this time. It would be interesting to see if the supply crunch will translate to a big boost in prices in a week or two. Miners shutting down in Mexico obviously is further complicating the supply picture. Perfect storm?

BTB, at the moment, low interest rates and bond yields are also very supportive of gold and I don't see that changing. People are uncertain and they will want to hold gold. I get a feeling the rush to gold is just beginning as the moms and pops aren't really into it yet. When it breaks $1700, that could change so we may have to wait a few more months to see how things fare when the virus subsides.

Without a doubt, some companies will raise prices and it places with weaker currencies, that could manifest itself in big inflation.

PMs consolidating taking a breather while equities seem to be risk off. This is good for the next leg up. Can anyone see anymore bad news? The virus situation doesn't seem to be getting worse.

I am convinced that silver will get back to ratio 100 at least when the virus situation eases. This would take it up to 16.50 at least. Gold needs to close above 1650 for at least a week for it to sustain the next charge above 1700 meaningfully..... it has been knocked back around this level too many times. Traders seem to be too fearful of 1700s...

Gold and silver is pushing hard now. Gold needs to sustain 1650-1700 levels to gain a new bull and silver should explode back up to 1700 1800 levels soon after. It is looking much better for silver now.

Yes I agree but I would add to that by saying hold only miners with good steady production at low cost and low debt of which FRES is one. There are also quite a few others. Avoid the junior explorers that are still raising capital to fund development. These can go bust when financing becomes problematic. I am not saying it will but banks are taking a hit and surviving on government support. Liquidity would dry up if they stopped QE.

Logically yes but at the moment, silver is being pulled in both directions from supply and demand side. It may well go down further if the CV situation causes further lockdowns in the world but I struggle to see how much further we can go. On the supply side, you now have 50% of the global production knocked out and silver can't be shipped easily because there are no flights so this will definitely cause the silver bullion premium to go up in the short term. As for the spot price, because of supply crunch, it may well spike up massively but that won't happen until 1-2 months down the road I feel when lockdowns start being eased. Meanwhile, it may well do down because of demand worries.

I hear that France will start relaxing lockdowns in certain areas and I am guessing in a few weeks, we will go that way. US will follow in 4-5 weeks time and it could be boom time for silver soon after. Watch this space.

Fres has plenty of cash to weather it. Cash erosion only happens because of Capex which would be suspended as well because it is part of the operation. No mining=no cost of sales. Only bill to pay for will be for non contract workers.

We will have to see how good the management is and how they will earn their salaries in this crisis. It is a manageable problem because this has $300m in cash and $600m of capex this year which I presume can be deferred.

A big problem will be the out of work starving Mexicans. We can handle it here in UK but there? There could well be riots on the streets.

At the moment, PM seems to track the market up and down which is not usually the case. This is both the dash to cash mentality and the selling of winning positions to cover losses causing this. We need to wait for volatility to pass which I suspect is when the virus panic and mayhem is over. If shutdown is to last over 3 months, then I suspect there will be lots of noises to say start opening up regardless. The west has done an appalling job when compared to China or South Korea in containing the virus.

The price of gold is not necessarily driven by supply demand in the short term. India and China are large gold consumers and these are affected. India is under total lockdown so no one will buy gold. China is opening up again except the people border. Freight goes on as per normal. In the short term, the LME and Comex markets are the drivers of the spot prices and we know that there re large premium over spot at the moment for bullions. There is also talk of EU clamping down on bullion buying so that would drive prices up further. I still reckon that in 4 week's time PM especially silver could be a lot higher. It needs to break the 1650 level convincingly. This is massive resistance. You can see that it is trying very hard to push through this and when it does, it will be a big rise towards $1700

You called in correct did you? You were saying this was doomed and it will continue to bleed cash at a high rate and said it would crash after the results are out. I said the opposite and said we would be neutral cashflow wise, at worse small drop in cash and at best a small increase. Explain then how after results were out, it rose over 30% to where it is today. Completely clueless you are.

Eh? you changed your tune quick? You were slating this just a day ago saying it will go down?! Have you no idea? I don't think anybody should listen to you.

The alerts from my trading platform has been pinging with this FRES rise. beautiful

Fres has defied gravity this past few days. I am so happy I averaged down heavily and spreadbetted this on top. This rise has allowed me to clear out the positions and returning to my core holding. Gonna play the wait and see game and see where this goes in the next day. I am now thinking $1800 gold is possible in the coming fortnight and that would drag silver to £20.

I have been accused of being bullish but you have seen many of my short term predictions come true right? It is carnage and a frightened market and condition has never been more ripe for gold. and of course, silver.