Member Info for carvegyber

I dipped my toes in yesterday on impulse and memories of CGH times but after reading Shaktar's posts, I have sold just to be safe. Now is not the time for risk. It is about capital preservation. I would put my money in producers, not explorers or developers. It is disappointing that after 10 years, Tulkubash is still 2 years away from production at best. That will probably get kicked again with this current situation.

SXX is a cautionary tale for aim punters. I was in there in the early days, got in low teens and sold in the 30s after Bill Frank, a poster that graced these boards many many years ago illustrated the value by working out the capex and the dilution that would take it to production giving it a fair value of 9p. I checked and double checked his figures and it seemed logical so I bailed rather than held.

I am grateful for MA's present to bail me out of CGH and I will now stay on the sidelines for another 2 years before I will return to see how Tulk pans out. I pay attention more to bashers on aim rather than rampers. Especially bashers that have sound calculation.

GL guys. Sorry for not hanging around.

SC, it looks like if big mines were to close, then there would be a supply shock and it would sky rocket PM prices. Meanwhile, it is only natural that gold takes a breather now. The rise has been very high very fast. Could be volatile for a while so I am going to trade the PM on spreadbet.

SC, ignore him. I have worked out that he just comes on every now and then to bash this share with fake new or old news. Got no sound analysis or anything useful to say about this. Waste of space. I actually don't know what his motive is. He has been telling people to sell when it was 550p saying it was overvalued. Some here actually sucked up his nonsense. So I guess bashing works. It scares people with no conviction or knowledge.

gutted I missed the rise to high 30s but I didn't have a patience to wait and was uncertain about the funding. The fact that MA is still buying is a good sign if he has faith. However, even he hasn't a crystal ball on what the world will be like in a year's time considering the fast changing landscape so I have only dipped my toes because this seem to lag gold price at the moment. I am gonna give this a few months and I will be checking in here regularly to hear your views....

got back into this after a long absence. Bought back at the same price I sold. What has changed? Does it look better now?

I have managed to average down aggressively to 700p and really have too large a position in this to be comfortable. It is a relief to be able to get some out on the sidelines again and let's see what happens with everything.

When I said 700p this morning, I was half expecting it not to happen.... great to see it happen

Good for you and well done. Just remember if they are not yet producers, make sure they have plenty to cash to weather the storm. Randgold was hardly an explorer relying on finance to advance. We might be just talking cross purposes. I just thought I would highlight it when you mentioned all miners because not all miners are in the same situation.

I held a few small PM miners/explorers 10 years back. While there is good logic to your analysis it doesn't happen in practice. Trust me I have been through it. Most of them went bust or you get diluted out of oblivion. The big fish can't be bothered to eat you because when there is distress, there is some many limp fish flapping around that they don't need to pay top dollar. However good you think your asset is.

Why pay top money on TO when you can buy it from the administrators for peanuts. You have cash, you call the shots and it is a brutal game. Do take care. Don't fall into the same mentality I did especially with juniors. Take you winnings and run.

The latest case being SXX. I know they are not PM but it is the way junior miner shareholders get swallowed up by big fish and you end up with nothing but a stolen bait.

Hi SC, I would be cautious to hold ALL miners. I would hold the ones with big producers and strong cash and avoid the ones with small production but mostly explorers. If there is a financial hit, these will go. with $300m in the bank for Fres and steady production, there is a lot of headroom to defer capex but the smaller miners may go under if they don't get funding and can't raise further capital. At the moment, it is all risk off.

Hit $14.15 overnight and gold came within a whisker of 1600. These past fortnight has been a technical trader's paradise. $1600 for gold will be the barrier. Although silver is outpacing gold at this point, it still hasn't boomed. It needs to get to at least ratio for me to consider it normal service so target $15.50. We are 10% away.

This looks good for Fres to regain 700p soon. If not today.

I think it is time for PM to shine now that the dash for cash is almost bottomed out and positions are unwound. No one would be in a hurry to take long or short apart from day traders so it looks good to me. Just waiting for silver to boom. 120+ ratio is just no sustainable is it? 100 bring silver to $15/oz

Leaders have likened CV to war. In every war, governments ramp up borrowing and money printing to finance their spending while there is a big demand and supply shock. Unless you make ventilators or hand sanitizers. When money printing starts, it devalues the fiat money so gold goes up. This has happened every time so I am pretty sure it will happen now. Hold on for the ride. As to miners, I see smaller non producing or explorers get into trouble if they get their funding pulled. With FRES which has lots of cash in the bank, this in sitting pretty. The can easy defer their Capex to suit their situation. Interesting times.

Drew, there are counterparty risks for Gold ETF. There are couple of good ones that is 100% gold backed like SPDR gold trust and PHAU. SPDR hold their gold in HSBC vaults so if HSBC goes bust, who knows. It is also very conceivable that although the gold is in the vault, the ultimate owner of the gold maybe someone else and HSBC has just sourced it by contract with say BOE. Once again, if HSBC goes bust, can you claim on the gold? The answer is no because you are not entitled to the gold. You are entitled to redeem in cash from SPDR. You see the problem now.

Having said all that, I don't see a systemic risk in the financial system just yet so ETFs should be fine for now but when **** hits the fan, beware....

There is this hardassetalliance that offers gold exposure and storage.

Drew, not all do. In fact, most only hold some. There isn't exactly a big warehouse somewhere where people are moving bars from one corner to the other depending on how many bought or sold on that day. It is all shuffled by paper....Some will lend out their physical holding for a fee. Layers of futures and contracts that make up these ETFs.

BTB, at the moment, if you want silver bars, most bullion traders are out of stock and if they are instock, they are about $19-25 a TrOz. Big premium. Something has to give.... Gold is the same.

One more ingredient needed. Market volatility to stabilise to allow Gold to climb. Swings of 10% is bad for gold the last couple of weeks. It causes a dash for cash and that's what been taking GBP with it. We need normal service to resume to 1-2% a day max.
Our idiotic BOE governor doesn't help. I thought we got rid of the Canadian idiot but now we have a homegrown one. How is reducing rates going to make us buy an airline ticket? It just makes banks even weaker and wreak havoc with their margins. They will hang on to the money BOE is pumping into them rather than hand them out.

USD down and silver up. This volatility is really defying conventional valuation. It is clear ratio of 120 is not sustainable. 100 is more normal (for recent months) so it should be up to 1500 in a flash. While there is deflationary forces at play, industrial demand isn't going to fall that much but with an already very tight supply, I doubt there is going to be a glut. Investment demand could take off though and we find big demand spikes and that could take the price with it. Problem is, because it is a small market, if a big player wants to suppress the rise, they could.

But if gold claws it way back to 1600, I doubt anyone can suppress silver and it would explode very quickly towards 1800 again. watch the BOOM

looks like we have reached a point of market not knowing if it should fall further or start rising. I would expect gold to keep clawing back lost grounds and silver to be held back until it blows.

I guess we have to tough out this period and we should see gold claw its way above 1600. Silver WILL explode upwards shortly after. We just need the panic to be over whereby once selling starts, they hit the 'sell all' button like the delete all button on your computer...

If someone is manipulating silver, even better because once they can't defend their shorts, all the stops will be triggered and you will have big rises....

Looking more positive now. 10% up now.

The ratio is now 120. This is unprecedented. I really didn't think it is possible but guess I am wrong. I am not the panicking type but this is having me worried. Massive liquidity, rate drops great uncertainty should be the perfect condition for PM to boom but....

Having said that, 2008 did see the same thing with PM crashing for 3 months before coming back strongly.

paper silver has taken a hit which to me signals counterparty risk aversion. Most have been bitten by 2008 so they are following BTB's advice. He who panics first panics best. There will come a time very soon when everything calms down and physical gold and silver shortage is widespread and hit headlines and this will take the paper PM prices up together with the physical counterparts. It has decoupled but they will recouple. I am pretty sure of it. If it doesn't that mean LME, Comex all that are bust and out of business which I doubt will ever happen.