Member Info for carvegyber

Noel, why are you even arguing with me on that point? UK, EU or US is highly unlikely to print their money into worthlessness are they? The collapse in GDP has been shown to be temporary and not structural unlike Zim or Weimar. We haven't got to print ever more currency to service another foreign debt so we are insulated from currency spirals. Just need to stop printing and the currency devaluation would stop. You have to bear in mind, hyperinflation is inflation of 50% or more a month.

noel, didn't read it sorry. Mind posting it?

Gold and silver are having a pretty wild ride huh? Almost before I finished posting my earlier post of drop being short term, gold and silver was rocketing up.

Looks like the traders couldn't decide if inflation is good or bad for PMs. LMAO. Utter confusion. What is clear to me though, is they are more and more convinced of the bull case for gold.

BTB, Weimar was caused by war and the subsequent reparation denominated in foreign currency hence the loss of faith in the underlying currency. Zimbabwe was caused by collapse in agricultural exports denominated in USD.

UK or US hasn't got bill that is in another currency so there is very unlikely hyperinflation would happen because you need a sudden collapse in government income to set that off. You simply reign in the spending and our/US budget deficit isn't that big on a year to year basis.

BTB, you would only need to resort to the weimars hyperinflation if your debt is denominated in another currency you don't control. If your debt is in a currency that you print, then you simply reduce the spending to control the debt levels. The key word is control. If you have to repay in another, you can't print that currency so you are at the mercy and will be sucked into an ever spiralling fall in forex which feeds the hyperinflation. If you research every hyperinflation episode, you will see a foreign currency involved.

inflations of the 70s is not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is 50% or more a month. We need to distinguish high inflation and hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation can't happen in countries like US, UK or EU because those countries borrow in their own currencies. It happens in Argentina or Turkey because their debt is denominated in USD.

Yes, bad just this moment but this is actually the best time to pounce on gold, silver or Fres. PMs will bounce back very strongly next few days if the fed keeps their 'transitory' view and talk it down. Silver will bust through 28 when that happens.

Silver is bounding back strongly. Looks like it will break 28 soon as I called it earlier. Come on.....

Fres is the safest place to be. $1b in cash and 50 year debt facility in place! Once the panic is over, this is so going over 1000p. We have seen this in 2008, 2020 and every mini crash in between.

Gold getting sold in the wider selloff is typical. Everything gets sold. It will bounce back hard though. This is the best time to be bold.

We are the only bit of blue in a sea of red.

PC, exactly. Kando, you need to think like this: CCL is now effectively 3/4 of its old size but with twice the debt while with 'normal' being 3 years away and meanwhile, it is still racking up debt. One more covid twist and it will, ahem, 'sink' again. So at current price, you have lots of risks with very little upside. See the light brother.....

Sharem, if vaccine still means that covid rages, then we as human race just have to hold ours hands up and say virus wins. Live alongside it and whatever happens, happens. Great thing is, it will make alien invasion less likely. See 'war of the worlds'

Pokerchips. Exactly. Junk Level. They now have fewer boats meaning less revenue and more costs (covid) to operate. £20 full valuation is generous unless you are blinkered. It will be many more months or even years before they can fully operate when you consider bulk of the world has done less than 10% vaccination. At £17. Move on..... How many cruises can people take going around Britain? LMAO

Anyway, this is a Fres board. Sorry for digressing.

Looks like gold will make a fresh charge for 1845 and silver 28. Fres 1000s in the next week peeps? GLA.

Come on inflation.... traders will hopefully remove their fixation on rates soon.

Spot on spindler. Same here with Yell when they tried all manners of spinning off etc. Balance sheets don't lie but most investors don't know what it is. Folks at carnival still buying at £17 thinking that it will go back up to £50, or at least £25.

Ahem, 18months of no revenue and monthly outgoings of $600m soon blows a big hole in your balance sheet. Funny thing is, even analysts are calling buy which is what confounds me. I thought these guys know about businesses.

Ironically, inflation rising is the best backdrop for gold as it is the king of inflation hedge. Dollar only rose because high inflation will possibly cause the fed to raise rates. This is just traders fixation at this minute because that is what they are trading. Soon they will start focussing on what inflation does to gold price once the inflation speculation has been settled so they will move to trade that. Then gold will fly.

Ironically, inflation rising is the best backdrop for gold as it is the king of inflation hedge. Dollar only rose because high inflation will possibly cause the fed to raise rates. This is just traders fixation at this minute because that is what they are trading. Soon they will start focussing on what inflation does to gold price once the inflation speculation has been settled so they will move to trade that. Then gold will fly.

Fres intraday gains always given up at the end of the day. Same old pattern. At least we are up 10p from Friday's close....

I am pretty sure in the next few days, this will hurdle over the 1000p mark if silver breaks $28. The drop in silver is just an excuse to drop the price of Fres I reckon.

The big big question is... and I pose it to the BB, will the central banks raise interest rates? Can they afford to? Or is the only way to get rid of the massive debt is to inflate it away?

What will the CBs do?

Micro example: my favourite el cheapo Prosecco used to get discounted to £5 regularly at tesco. It now almost never gets discounted and is at £7. Inflation figures will be at 2-3% in the next few months and will probably start hitting 3-4% 2023. That would be sweet for properties, stock, and gold. If it goes higher than that, history has shown that there is only one king of inflation hedge..... Gold. And of course in that environment, the upstart Prince ie silver will upstage it big time.

I have held fres for 3 years, looks like another 3 years for this to play out.