Member Info for carvegyber

Yessss. payroll at 550k!

Kando, enough thinking for now. I picked up some more at 854p so going to see at 1.30 if my dice roll pays off.....

Ken, yesterday was ADP payroll. A precursor to non farm. Non farm is always on first friday of every month. Today at 1.30pm.

non farm at 1.30pm. consensus is 650k jobs. If it is at this, I think gold will pop back up to near 1900. below 500k, it might breach 1900 but if more that 800k, then we could see gold retest 1850. Holding that would be critical for fres.

Mary, I am finding that in the last 2-3 weeks, gold seems to have a much closer relationship with USD than yield. USD is related more to the economy whereas yield is more to rates. The two are quite related of course but of late, traders seem to be less sensitive to rates (probably because fed keeps talking it down) and more sensitive to the economic progress.

I have posted here that we should play the game rather than the players. All these sarcasm and ridicule is really uncalled for and counter productive. But I guess in the online age, it can magnify people's unpleasant side because they can hide behind a keyboard.

All the commodities trade has been hit by the payroll figures this afternoon.... traders are quite jittery and keen to lock in profit.

Mid term elections coming up in Mexico and candidates have been murdered left right and centre. Mostly violence and security. Nothing that worries me at the moment. This is not talks of a mass nationalisation like in Peru.

I posted the reason why SP is tanking. ADP payroll figures came in way above expectations causing USD to rise which is bad for gold. This is because of one, USD factor and also Fed might start tapering soon....

The key is non farm tomorrow. If non farm turns out just around expectations, then expect a rally. I normally don't trade around non farm because it can be volatile but there is value in 860s.....

Mary, the gold and silver rally is typically steady rise punctuated by steep drops like we are seeing.

I better caveat that before a certain individual starts taking potshots ;-) ... this is of course not a prediction that it will keep rallying. Just my observation from past trends.

2000 shares earlier at 888.8 (lol) and then 1000 at 870. I didn't get the low at 862 which is resistance....I do my buying and selling in tranches. I see 850 as a strong floor for this. Even MSCI multi million selling couldn't bust it.

I too bought at 888.8 cos it was a nice number and again at 870. Next couple of days will be squeaky bum time....

ADP payroll data came in much stronger than forecast which is bad for gold. Eyes on non farm tomorrow followed by what Powell has to say about rates.

Another thought, gold has rallied to near its all time high of 1920 back in 2011. It has pretty much gone steadily up from double bottom in march when I called that gold turned a corner. It is always going to consolidate at around certain point while it waits for the next impetus to push higher. Fres will follow but the MSCI has really knocked the conviction of many.

I feel we have a great event coming up with H1 reports in July and analysts will start positioning their recommendations ahead of this. The numbers will be fantastic. I think this will be a good catalyst of Fres and will probably start a few weeks before reporting. People like Perma Bear seem intent to ridicule this idea but from Past few reports, I think I am on the right track. However DYOR and GL.

Astro, in the short term, the traders are waiting for non-farm tomorrow to see how jobs are added. Under expectations would be good for gold because Fed is less likely to raise rates soon. We are in a holding pattern so PMs will be a little choppy. Fres typically amplifies the movement of silver so we are about right. (although we didn't benefit from overnight but being hurt by intraday. Story of Fres because of ridiculously low volume).

Mid term, you have the now widespread view of inflation being high in US while Feds talking down rate rises so it is bullish for gold. Fres will amplify the effects of PM prices. Right now, it has 20% to catch up to at least sector performance but that will probably not happen until widespread rerate by broker or IIs buying. Or some uncertainty creeps in from war or virus. Sector is also undervalued because money is chasing risks and recovery plays rather than safe havens. That could change if doubts creep in.

Long term, I think gold is the ultimate money as a safeguard against currency debasement and there is a lot going around. Bitcoin lost some faith recently so gold seems to be regaining its crown. We have to wait and see if this plays out.

I think we need to differentiate between views on here on whether they are short term, mid term or long term. There is no point in slating someone labelling them when anyone can be wrongfooted as shown by the MSCI fiasco.

I say, play the game, not the players.

I am not holding out much hope for this Basel3. It might be overhyped. First they keep putting it off and secondly, if they have to rerate their margin levels, I would have thought that by now the traders would have started unwinding their positions.

Or institutional buying which will probably rerate this to more like POLY. Always hard to tell when this happens apart from the MSCI fiasco. We were all scratching our heads for a week.....

market is stuck at the top now waiting for direction. US is overvalued but economy is picking up.....might give it another leg up but everything is vulnerable to tapering including gold so everyone is wait and see. Same event can be interpreted differently by 2 analyst at the moment.

One thing is for sure though is that inflation is everywhere and rates are low so real rates are rising. You know what that means. Unfortunately, for the time being, there is no catalyst for gold to breakthrough. Until uncertainty or risk aversion (safe haven status) returns to give it the next let up.

Next leg for Fres will have to be results driven which will be end of next month.

Don't know about you guys but over the last 3 weeks, it feels like we have been battered by a storm. We battened down the hatches, weathered the storm and now the storm clouds are clearing. We can see calmer waters and glimpses of fair wind.

Well done holders and to those who added, brilliant play. I tipped a friend in the 860s and he is very grateful this morning.

It looks like Millennium unwound their position on 27th? This should resume normal service tracking the price of PM.... it still has 20% of catching up to do first and first institutional buyer that pop up, should drive this much higher. Waiting game now.

Be patient, We have just come up from 860s to 900s in effectively 2-3 days.... nothing goes up in a straight line. They need to consolidate.

I would imagined that those that have bought in the 850s or 860s are now being shaken and taking profit. The volume is very very low just at the minute. Wait for 2pm....