Member Info for carvegyber

Sharem, it is a bit cat and mouse at the moment. With inflation this high, gold should be flying but the US10yr is saying that it is transitory for what I believe is 2 reasons. 1. Pandemic still ranging and quickly morphing into pingdemic here. 2. there is a crash around the corner due to high valuation and threat of levarage withdrawal by the authorities. In short, there is no full buy into the inflation story and stocks are priced on forward earnings. Last year, forecasters everywhere is saying gold will hit $3000 but there is no one saying that now hence no bull case for PM miners.

I think gold will stay supported due to negative real rates but it has every chance of rallying because I believe this pingdemic will go global and US will be sucked in. We lead the world in pandemic cycles. You will then have the negative real rates drive (due to supply crunch) plus the safe haven appeal driving up gold price.

The whole sector is down since mid June. The gold price rallied but the gold mining sector carried on going south.

Sentiments appears to have deserted gold miners. We need gold to get into the limelight more and that would get the miners fired up.

Looks like market has gone into a sell everything mode once again with virus worries. Gold will initially get sold with it but have you noticed that when the selling calms down, gold often rallies hard again?

I can only speculate along with experts why this is. Some say it is margin covering. When you think about it, gold as a risk off trade in an inflationary environment should trump everything else. Sense will return.

Volume crazy low at the moment so it drifts.....

Well, whoever you suppose is wielding this monkey hammer, he doesn't seem to be using it too well. It is more like a monkey tickler if you ask me.

who is behind the short selling?

BTB, what's with your obsession with monkey hammer?

Yes it can happen that price goes down after a good results but I have never seen it happen after a humdinger result which I believe is coming up. I have waited 2 years for this.

If I am wrong, then being a glass half full guy, I got it wrong. If I am right, please do pat me on my back haha.

noggers, correct. Note that I said "Therefore the only time this will rerate is when PM miners come back into focus, excellent results, or when PM go on a tear."

I am holding for the results because the comparison between H1 21 to H1 20 will be approaching 100% profit growth according to my pencil. Valuations will have to double to catch up and dividend will be doubled too going forward because we pay fixed % of earning. RIO is doing very well because of its high divi. PM miners would get there in due course like POLY etc. This hasn't because of the high silver exposure but Silver is high now.

With the imminent threat of interest raise out of the way despite high inflation, the future looks bright for PMs.

Keep an eye out for the production report shortly. Anyone know when this is due? I so need this to line up with gold price, come result day. Hopefully, it will send us back into 4 digits again.

Let's hope.

I think this stock is very affected by the general trend to index funds/passive investing. Investors don't buy stocks anymore. They buy funds or trackers. With the MSCI delisting, it has caused many other trackers to readjust and that's why we have the hangovers from it. Likewise we saw a similar patch when this went off FTSE100.

When there are no funds buying or selling, there is currently very little interest in PMs so in periods of low volume, MMs take the prices down to attract more buyers hence the drift when volume is low. This is complicated by the fact that the board is really not interested in the SP as they have no need to raise finance and the float is small. They only communicate with us a few times a year. (Other companies use drill results etc and reserve upgrades as news driver when this is generally buried in our twice yearly reports). Therefore the only time this will rerate is when PM miners come back into focus, excellent results, or when PM go on a tear.

Preferably all 3 at the same time.

Dollar up, yield up and gold up. That is something you don't see very often.....Maybe traders are starting to focus on real rates and think about how inflation will affect assets.

Once again, moderate inflation good for equities, property, bad for bonds and cash but high inflation will be good for gold and commodities.

big enough drop today that lots of people will have to sell their winners to fund the margin calls...

I think it will in due course as we have seen during the pandemic last year. It was slow to track the rise of gold but when it did, it rose strongly.

HalfP, The drop in US 10yr yield indicates so. China's easing has confirmed that which means that Feds will no longer the talking rates rise.

US 10yr is a very strong indicator for just about every asset in the world. It's pricing in troubles....

Can I get some views from the floor of the dynamics of the gold price in the short term and the long term both from a charting point of view and economics POV please. It would make good food for thought.

Someone posted a chart here the other day and it shows that all the shorts cleared out.

Your information is outdated Auson. I don't believe MLM has any significant shorts in this anymore. That site doesn't disclose anything once it falls below a certain % hence no updates.

DK, I feel the pain. In normal times, FRes would move 3X silver price increase or more. We are all scratching our heads. I do wonder if this is a hangover of the MSCI fiasco. I have a few theories but they are all just educated guesses.

We need a few ducks to line up. First if PM prices climbs modestly for the next 3-4 weeks. Then a production report that shows we are on track to meet guidance, and then of course, the biggie of H1 report where there are no nasty surprise.

With those things on the cards, we should be quite a bit higher from here. I have been in here since 2015 and I don't remember a time when revenue can be this high and Fresnillo this profitable.

Volume has been on a downtrend since the MSCI fiasco. Every rise gets sold into by the people who bought at the low. We need to wait for those stocks to clear or IIs taking their position pre results. I am certain that the profit increase over 2020 H1 will be mahoosive. Should be best ever.