Member Info for carvegyber

Signs of the US treasuries firming and dragging down USD. I hope it continues especially if inflation remains high but not too high. 3-4% range would be ideal for gold to keep rallying.

It needs to consolidate around 1900 for a bit before the big push for 1960 and then 2000. Silver looking strong at the moment so should pass 28 again soon. Hold tight fellas. Good week coming up now that this is unshackled.

If you can, hold until end July and you will be rewarded big time due to H1 reports and broker rerating. Typically, we will see the strong moves up a few weeks before a good result so Mid June should start the Fres rally proper.

Was a big volume day today. Looks like a lot of funds had to offload but there was a lot of buying to counter that driving up the price. Just need gold and silver to cooperate tomorrow and clear 1900 and 28. Should be a great day tomorrow. Well done on those loaded up at 860s or even 850s.... We are getting one back on the hedge funds perhaps? Hope they have closed their short and gone long.

If I was a hedge fund capitalising on the arbitrage of MSCI, I would add to my shorts on a daily basis because this averages the price and evens out the PM prices effect right up to effective date which is tomorrow. So last chance for us to buy cheap shares.

just got another 1500 shares at 862. Lovely. 10yr has just touched 133. I see gold rapidly going to 1960 chaps. One more day to go and shackles will come off this bad boy.

I shan't bother reposting my research but now and tomorrow and your last chance literally.

Sigh, it does look like any gains on fres is going to be capped by this massive MSCI Pain in the ass.... Hey ho, just 2 more days to put up with this shiite.

I will suggest gold will have another crack at 1900. It is mighty close. Might need some consolidation here and then it will be clear sky to 1960. The more it tests the resistance, the bigger the pop.

SR, it is in a research paper by students of investment studies emailed to me so no link. Most of the paper is statistical modelling based on historical price movements and really make no sense in bits. The gist is summed up by the conclusion bits. I have cut and paste it here so I hope it helps the BB. I didn't make it up:

Conclusion
In this research the results of the MSCI Minimum Volatility index rebalances between 2011 and 2016 are
presented. The main finding is that stocks that increase in weight return an average of +1.58% between
announcement and effective day. Stocks that are (partly) sold during the index rebalance return an
average of -0.63% in same time period. This results in an index spread (difference between buy and sell
basket) of +2.21%, making the rebalance 2.21% more expensive on effective day than on announcement
day. Investors lose every rebalance (10% turnover) 0.22% and with two rebalances per year this
accumulates to a performance drag of 0.44% annually. Additionally the following conclusions can be
drawn:
1. The index effect is persistent, of structural nature and statistically significant. Only one rebalance
(November 2011) of the 12 rebalances investigated yields a marginal negative spread between
AD and ED. On effective day, all but one (2015-II) rebalances show positive spread returns.
Furthermore, no single rebalance result dominates the overall average.
2. The spread between AD and ED doubles to +4.5% when constructing baskets on basis of liquidity
(less liquid stocks get a higher weight). This indicates that the index effect is caused by market
impact.
3. The index effect found is statistically significant with significance at 5% level found for event
windows on announcement day (AD), between announcement day and effective day (AD+1 –
ED-1) and on effective day (ED). The reversal effect is mainly observed on the first day after
effective day. For both baskets statistical significant negative spread returns are found. No
significance is found for the flow weighted baskets for the overall time period suggesting that
there is no permanent price change, which adheres to the price pressure hypothesis.

After doing more digging, from what I know, historically, after the effective date of the rebalance, which is 27th, the stocks sold have average good returns in the 2 weeks following. Of course falls after the announcement date which was 11th. It is more pronounced with stocks that have little float and liquidity.

Please don't take it as investment advice. Just sharing some information. Do what you have to fellas. I have been accused of being too bullish so there you go.

4 more days of this MSCI rubbish. The selling has got to be nearly done now right? I would have imagined any self respecting funds would have done their reshuffling early.

Gold was at 1500-1700 range in 1H 2020 and gold will be 1700-1900 in 1H2021. 15% more.

Silver was at 1200-1800 range in 1H 2020 but this will be 2400-2800 in 1H 2021. This is a massive 70% more.

We know roughly half the revenue comes from Silver so just projecting directly, that would be a 40+% increase in revenue. When you add Zinc and Lead plus lower cost of finance, all the additional increase in revenue is effectively net profit. There is also a huge cash pile of $1billion plus it is my firm believe that production will surpass their guidance and last year.

July's report will be humongous.

This is going to run hot and all the central bankers of the world are still talking QE and not going to relent. I am just astounded that gold is not $2000 already.

This is the destiny. Writing is on the wall.

As we approach the last few trading days before the MSCI reshuffle is completed, I am hoping most of the funds would have repositioned and the selling would be getting smaller and smaller.

Regardless of how much stock they still have, surely forced sale by institutional investors are some of the best opportunities for picking up cheap stocks? 850p seems like the established floor at moment.

"Final few days" as they would say on shop windows.

Gold price is holding up well despite higher dollar and yield. I think the gold bull which started couple of months ago is gathering steam.

We just need to weather this msci storm.

Anyone know how to make this stupid site post your message every time rather and not posting until you post it a second time which then leads to double posting?

Studying the volume, I think the funds are half way through the selling. Another 3 high volume days would do it.

The MSCI index issue does explain the very unusual and sudden against market movements. I think the reshuffling is to complete on 27th so another week of disruptions at most. It depends on the index funds timing on the sales. It would also get bought by other index funds because it falls out of one into another albeit smaller. It explains the strong rise up yesterday.

So expect volatility in the coming week because the volume on Fres is relatively small normally. Once the funds have cleared out their stocks, then this should resume their normal rises. By early next month, I am hoping this would be back in the 10s again provided gold and silver stays up.

Trade with care but if you and holding long, you are fine.

sharky, Every other miner has risen around 2% today and we are currently -1%?! There is some truth that the sector hasn't really motored with the SP yet. I think a lot of focus is still on the commodities company but surely, after a month, the value of gold producers will become irresistable.

I will say this again, when fres moves, it can motor. It took a month for this to move from 850 to 1300 last year.

I really cannot fathom it. Massive volumes going through in the last hour. The price indicates a big seller unless a dark pool is at play to drop the price for large order.

Let's see if the pattern from yesterday repeats itself at 2pm. If it does, you know what to do tomorrow fellas.....

I hope you are right PB. That sort of prediction is a out of the norm for you LOL. Not that I am complaining. I think that too but this share has confounded me in the last 2 months.

Made great money out of it to aug 20. I know that in a gold bull, fres is hugely rewarding to trade. Probably for the reason we have seen yesterday....

Early last week, I had said it looked like Gold and silver will break their respective resistance of 1850 and 28 in the next few trading days. We now have those broken solidly and I was spot on. I also said it was the condition that should see Fres above 1000p again. In that, I have failed miserably.

How many of you would honestly have thought that we would still have a 9 attached to the start of the price?

Honestly though, how many of you

Just realise my title should say 2800 silver. Typo LOL.

1800+1000 silver then.