Member Info for carvegyber

Rodeo is small apparently. Not enough to replace Noche Buena. They will have to bring others on line but that is still few years away. Silver will be trending up gradually. A big discovery would really help the SP.

What makes this rise more impressive is that gold is rising in the face of rising dollar. The talk is Delta variant is causing risk off so gold is bought. However, I am seeing commodities up big time today too which probably means investors think Delta will hold the world's central banks back from tapering soon....

PB, if somehow by a sheer stroke of luck, I had invested right at the top and sold at the low or indeed just held and hoped like you suggest all PM investors did for the last 10 years, then indeed I would have, as you suggest, an IQ of room temperature.

As it turns out, I wasn't so lucky as you need pretty much a shedloads of luck to time the top. If you care to check my many back posts accumulated over 11 years on LSE, you will see that I began to take an interest in this around the lows of 2015. Made loads of money on Fres and silver along the way. I just happen to see the low of 2015 as the start of a multiyear PM bull run punctuated by multi month sharp drops. If it does fall back to 2015 levels, then you are right and I am wrong but please don't come on here every time there is a drop in PM prices and start call posters here stupid. If you have a point, just make it but insulting other people reflects an unpleasant personality.

B99, Somehow it makes me relax knowing you are on board this train. LOL.

PB, what is it about a sudden price drops that brings the snipers out?

FYI, you are wrong too. This is what you said:
"We've been here before in 2011. People screamed hyperinflation and ramblings about money printing then look what happened...PMs entered a 10 year bear market. Those people are still underwater, talk about a bad investment.."

Gold's last peak in 2011 bottomed in 2015. Barely a 4 year bear. Gold price has been on a bull run since 2015. Those people you like to take a pop at are not underwater since 2011. They probably have made a small fortune when gold hit a record last year at $2070. Then again when silver touched $30. I would say your are the one who is wrong because you are blinkered and obsessed with attacking others.

Calm down Con man, it is just posters posting their thoughts in the hope of exchanging ideas. This is what the forum is for. If you don't like what you hear, ignore it or if you feel you have an opposing view, express it. If it makes sense absorb it. This is a sounding board for even in an ocean of pebbles, you will occasionally find a nugget.

Otherwise, you know what to do.

Apparently this doesn't affect london and US until 2022 so really, nothing much will happen come 28th. If there are any rises, it will be a slow rise as big banks start looking at their margin ratios.

JMT, Caino, I think it is more useful to look at the net debt picture. According to my calculations, there is no net debt. We are now in surplus because of the huge cash pile. We should be adding $30m plus every month to that pile. We should be 2-300m in surplus by July. Let's wait and see.

There will be no trouble paying back the remainders $400m and have plenty leftover to buy new mines to increase reserves. Best to do it now than when silver/gold is much higher. Real rates being negative cannot be ignored by market for long.....

This got hit badly couple of years ago by capex exceeding income but that has completely reversed now. According to my calculations, we are on course for revenue of at least $2.8b for 2021 and that would be a record for Fres with similar costs. There will also be upside in 2022 to that from Juanicipio. The profit growth will be huge in 2021 so how can that be overlooked by market?

The H1 results will confirm the numbers end July so let's see what the price does then. With record profit, we can't possibly trade at 60% below the peak right? There has been no dilution to boot.

Recorder, in Mandarin, gold is used to represent money. In Cantonese, they use almost exclusively 'silver'. The word they use for currency is directly translated as 'silver paper'. Silver is money in cantonese. In South America, plata (silver) means money.

The point is not one of investing in El Salvador. It is more about faith. Faith in something that the government can't deface like bitcoin or gold. If enough countries start trading in Bitcoin, then more and more will join in if you want to trade with it and don't want to use USD. Plenty of countries are sensitive about trading in USD such as Iran, Russia, etc.

I agree with your view that everyone is now practising currency defacement so it doesn't really matter but with the scale of money printing going on in the US, I wish someone or something could call them out.

effectively what the journalist is saying that while Fed say they would raise rates in 2023, market is saying that they won't be able to. So the only question that remains is that what will it take for investors to finally take stock of gold? Surely with all the money printing that is going on, USD can only go one way? It is only high because we still have faith in it? When will we start peeling away from it? El salvador has taken the leap to Bitcoin and I wonder if others will follow suit?

A little excerpt below from a financial journalist on the recent gold price slide. I think this makes good sense and provides and understanding of what is going on:

The gold price wasn’t the only thing on the move. Remarkably, long-dated US bond yields fell as the Fed announced it expected to raise interest rates earlier.

This is an odd combination. The threat of higher interest rates in the future because of inflation should not lead to lower long-term bond yields…

Both rate hikes and inflation should raise bond yields.

Thanks to the moves, the gap between inflation and long-term bond yields widened to the largest since 1980.

Investors are buying bonds that pay 1.5% in yield while inflation is at 5%...

Again, this should be the ideal world for gold. But the gold price plunged.

A possible explanation is that financial markets are already pricing in a future crisis triggered by interest rate increases.

It could be that they’ve grown so dependent on excessively low rates, and so accustomed to rising interest rates triggering crises, that the threat of higher interest rates from central banks was enough to cause a panic.

I think that has some logic PB.

When I put my economics hat on, I still cannot fathom why would fed saying there are rates rises possibly in the next 2 years cause the dollar to rise? The traders say it should rise so it rises? Is this some sort of propaganda driven agenda?

I understand it when they HAVE risen rates so people put buy USD on a carry trade to earn the difference in interest. I did this myself when rates in UK was 0.5% and US was 2% soon after the financial crisis. But on an indication? Seems all traders driven agenda.

Hey, are you invested in here too? I am balls deep and made a big bet the the feds will remain dovish but they have been interpreted as hawkish by traders. raising rates in 2023 still sounds pretty dovish to me when inflation is running at 4-5% now! The increasingly transitory view is not helping either so looks like the stronger USD will be pressuring gold in the mean time.

The value here is deep imo but what do you think about rerate at the results end of the month?

I better go into hiding because some people will come on soon and ridicule me as being wildly wrong.... bye all.

I do have one moan about Fres. Silver is up 1.2% currently and this is only up 0.5% ? In normal times, this should be 3% at least.

When will normal service resume?

jmt lol. So true. Just traders trading the data..... In our leveraged world, every small tweet or fart can move the market...

High five time my fellow traders. 900s soon.