Member Info for carvegyber

Our troubles are very much sector related. Miners' price action always lags the actual metal's price. If you believe that Gold has turned the corner, which looks like it has, then in time miners will pick up and overtake gold's performance.

Only downside is, it takes around 6 months or more though. Sigh.....

We have done a couple of weeks of this so might be a good time to start adding. If gold breaks through the 1760 mark, that would be the confirmation for me to go heavy. Bond yields trend looks favourable and inflation is creeping in.

Yeah I agree. Volume is extremely low and I keep thinking the MMs are walking this down due to lack of interest in this share.

PMs gone down due to bond yields again and scuppered the price up for us. This share has really confounded me lately. It gets all the drops from PM prices but none of the rises..... even if it rose, it is soon deflated even if PMs continue rising. It seems to have lost correlation to PMs.

It has been a very low volume day today but I notice there is a spike up in the last 30min which bodes well for tomorrow especially if Gold stays up. I would say gap up to 930 and then slow walk down by MMs again on low volume.

gold just bust through 1747 and if it consolidates and tests 1760, it will bode well for the turnaround. We need the feds to keep saying they will keep monetary policies loose.....

If we bust through 1760 gold, then it is game on. 1000p here we come.

little tip....use the volume indicator on the hourly chart to help you trade....

Yeah, so predictable. Gold and silver now nearing the day's high and Fres now making new day's low. WTF.

The divi is attractive. This will in 2 year's time turn into one of the biggest divi payer on ftse100.

I wonder if the rise early morning will hold or deflated by the MMs as the day goes on....

DK, I noticed that too. Fres is just so reluctant in rising when PMs are pumping. Sure enough, market will close soon and we will miss the gains that is made overnight. So typical.

Just touched 900. Still need silver to break $25 for this to close above 900p imo. Should do so by next week if there is no more rise in yield. Looking good for 950 next week. GLA.

Good trade. Can't go too wrong with 860. even if you get wrongfooted in the very short term like my 898 buy, in a few weeks, we should both be laughing. Some gold miners are actually turning into the biggest dividend payers on the market. I am looking at 950.

We need silver to clear 25 for this leg up to consolidate. Another bout of commodities rally would do it.

Fres, as ever, quick to fall but slow to rise.....

Gold just poked its head above 1700. My view is, in the next few weeks, we will be exposed to rising yield and dollar strength but I can see that gold increasingly wants to rise despite that. It is a sign of oversold. Make no mistake gold is in a bear market but we are very very close to the bottom if not at the bottom. Even in a bear market, this can still rally but mid term (6 months) is where my eyes are firmly at. I think the bull will resume by then when inflation starts when the real world opens up. Then gold's role as the ultimate inflation hedge will be once again be established.

Archegos has shown how little we know of the bank's assets. At the moment, everyone is looking at one another wondering if they are exposed to the default. They will be cautious about lending. No panic yet but who knows who else is naked and which bank is over exposed? If tech falls another 10% for extended period, the banks will be jittery and make margin calls.

In this low interest environment, banks are seriously exposed to the rates. They have lent lots of money at low rates which don't make them any money. Doesn't take many defaults to expose business models. Defaults are bound to come when governments remove life support.

throughout history, gold has always outperformed during periods of inflation. I am talking 2-4% or higher. At the moment, bond yields have climbed higher than inflation for there is a real positive yield. When inflation starts exceeding the yield, it will turn negative again and this is when gold really comes into its own. Yes yield may rise but can the feds afford to let it rise or will they exercise YCC to keep it down. Every 1% rise in rates = $300bn they have to find to service the interest so I am betting they will keep it down.

You would have thought it should be the other way around. You seek the safety of gold when you don't know which paper asset is sound. Warren Buffett said you don't know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out....

We have seen that gold often gets sold in the immediate aftermath but then people realise that it is actually the best thing to hold so they buy it again.

I think $2000 gold is achievable this year. It may take the feds to start YCC because no one is willing to pay 1.7% for 10yr bond. They want 2 or even 3% but with the extra debt on hand, they can't afford it so feds will have to step in and bring it down instead. Then they will stipulate how much pension funds need to hold them to keep demands high and keep financing uncle Biden's grand plans. I think the Biden plan will be the one that breaks the dam and cause USD to start capitulating against other assets. Gold really should start going up now but some invisible forces appear to be holding it back.

Looks like Fres is very reluctantly tracking the gold price. MMs have really taken advantage of a low volume period to drive the price down. Which means there should be a decent pop up in the coming week or two. Bring it on.... let's see if I am right.

couple of analyst views:

"I don't think it (gold) has much more downside and traders are looking for a bottom on the fact that short-term yields and the rise in the dollar are not sustainable," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist, RJO Futures.

The dollar hit a four-month high versus rivals. USD/

Also aiding gold, sentiment in wider financial markets remained weak as investors grew wary following a new round of coronavirus restrictions in the euro zone. MKTS/GLOB "(But) The momentum (for gold) is on the bearish side, so you're going to have to see prices rebound a little bit for the bulls to gain some confidence that some kind of upward sustainability can be achieved," said Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff.

I am just waiting for more videos to come out on how comex is going to break and amuse myself with it. No doubt there is great demand and there is possibly some stress but paper still rule for now.....