Member Info for carvegyber

gold seems to be correlating perfectly now with us treasuries. Fed meeting wed and let's see what Powell has to say about rising yields. If he says nothing, it would be interesting to see what the T notes do which will inform on gold. Definitely traders driven. You need a bloomberg terminal for that.

I mentioned we are at turning point the other day and I think we are beginning to get confirmation. With the rise in yield being more orderly now, usd hasn't been appreciating and gold appears to be also now rising with the outlook of inflation looking up . I hope we have decoupled from the fixation with bond yield and actually looked at inflation. If it is clear that inflation will outstrip yield, then gold is in for a bull run in a big way. We just need some more confirmation of the gold bull resuming I think. Fingers crossed.

Mary, I particularly like this bit:

Covid cannot be used to contain everyone indefinitely. The political covid - another strain warnings - no longer work

With the rise of China , at some point they will tire of US devaluing their currency and the world trade being denominated in usd. They will want a stable substance that its value cannot be created to suit their own needs. At the moment, there appears to be 2 candidates which would be gold or bitcoin. Bitcoin is not stable enough and also vulnerable to government control and I just cannot see governments using it as reserve ever. That leaves gold. When questions are being asked of currencies, gold time to really outshine will come. Yields rising is symptomatic of it. It is just a precursor and market is just too sceptical of gold to start buying it except for a very few select firms. When they catch on to the game/theme, it will explode like in 2011. Eurozone breakup is still very much a threat too like in 2011. Italy may ditch it and the dutch want out because they are sick of financing the south.

ken, I think in the longer term, 5-10 yrs it could well happen especially if there is a challenge to USD reserve status. I think short and mid term, $50 is within reach . Question is, will be still be holding if this even gets to $100 or we have all bailed....

That is the key figure to watch. Gold in the mid to long term is always very highly correlated to inflation especially money printed ones.

US is doing it. EU is doing it, Japan and even we are doing it on the quiet (BOE has been giving the treasury overdrafts...). Only big economy not doing it is China because they peg their currency. How is gold not worth more. Bitcoin is flying and so should gold. At these low prices, there has been record buying from India's dealers...

Good finish today. I wrote yesterday that I thought we are turning the corner and then today..... spooky.

BTB, I like that. Let's go big and say $500 if silver returns to 1to15 ratio....lmao. In fact, silver should be 1 to 8 because it is money and industrial.....

Yes could be a bit blue sky lol but it is not improbable. Just need gold to go over $2000 right? BTB will come on in a minute to explain why gold should be worth $2500, 3000, or even 10000. It went from $300 to $1700 in 2000-2011. Call it 5X. If you take 2016 low and times 5 you get $5500. In 2000s, you got inflation then followed massive money printing.

This time around, we have had humongous money printing, and question is now whether inflation will follow...... bread in roman times in relation to gold is roughly the same as today. Do you think our fiat money has that ability? No currency has held its purchasing power in 100 year or even 50.

Yes, optimist. That's me. Hasn't served me well since August but I have been trading on the side as well and I have done brilliantly there. A good bounce is due. It never goes up in a straight line and likewise, it never goes down in a straight line.

I think we are at a turning point now. I feel with this stimulus and reopening, the inflation will be exceeding bond yield thus driving up gold. As equities resume rally, money will flow out of bonds into stocks plus there is always the trifecta of Feds buying. If they do, then hello $2000 gold and £20 fres.

What's everyone's view on how it will go from here considering Powell didn't make any good noises? Dollar is very strong now but gold and especially silver seems to be holding up relatively strongly considering.

PB. Looks like no reprieve.....

Powell have already said he will tolerate inflation and not raise rates. It is the bond yield that is the issue. Bond investors are demanding higher rates for putting money in because they expect inflation. Inflation>bond yields=good for gold but right now it is the other way around. High yields sucks liquidity and money from other assets which is bad for recovery, so to bring it down, Feds will have no choice but to buy the bonds to keep it down or at least say they will. it is a case of who will blink first. Japan has been doing it for yonks and EU is at it too. Only months away from reopening and real inflation setting in.....diesel at the pump has gone from 119 to 127 in the last few months.....

Not good if you are a pensioner relying on bonds to pay your retirement....

I would love to stack silver. The VAT has put me off. Know of any countries in europe that has no vat? Be great to get my hands on a few 1000oz bars. Pass it to the kids some day.

I wish UK would remove VAT on silver bars. If they do, there would be a flood....

DK, thanks for that. I didn't know there was a disruption in the repo market. Last time they had to step in and act. I remember taper tantrum well . They wanted to scale QE down and market had a wobble and liquidity dried up. They had to act. They started printing money and this is on a one way ticket to hell.....

Ultimately, real assets are the ones to hold. Commodity miners, precious metals (silver is money, always has been.), bitcoin, even properties if interest rates don't go too high. I hold all those and I have had a think about bitcoins recently. I think, bitcoin as good as it is, will most likely be superceded (due to cost of network) in the future when technology moves on. Which comes back to gold. Compared to gold (and silver), bitcoin will probably turn out to be a flash in the pan.

In many languages, the term for money is 'silver'. It has always been money until the last century.

DK, thanks for that. I didn't know there was a disruption in the repo market. Last time they had to step in and act. I remember taper tantrum well . They wanted to scale QE down and market had a wobble and liquidity dried up. They had to act. They started printing money and this is on a one way ticket to hell.....

Ultimately, real assets are the ones to hold. Commodity miners, precious metals (silver is money, always has been.), bitcoin, even properties if interest rates don't go too high. I hold all those and I have had a think about bitcoins recently. I think, bitcoin as good as it is, will most likely be superceded (due to cost of network) in the future when technology moves on. Which comes back to gold. Compared to gold (and silver), bitcoin will probably turn out to be a flash in the pan.

In many languages, the term for money is 'silver'. It has always been money until the last century.

Gold price drop just knocked us for six again..... Gold will be under the cosh for the next few weeks I think until feds decide they have had enough. What I fear is, it will take more bond yields rising for them to act so we brace yourselves...... We will weather the storm but there is heavy water ahead.

Even when this is rising, it seems to do so very reluctantly.....

Exp, I wasn't aware that Feds started buying? I am guessing they would step in when there is a liquidity issue. I am sure even if they don't buy, they will say lots of lovely things to keep it nailed to the floor. I need a good dose of inflation.... LMAO