Member Info for Caposoka

Skid, you are quite right. It is not an achievement. I said as much in my post. Not sure why you are even asking the question. My losses were in the first couple of years, never to be recovered. Opportunity loss does not come into it as the loss was already incurred. The achievement here was to stick with it, ignoring the downbeats or is it deadbeats on the way. After the recent climb which may be immaterial for you but not for me, the last 4 years have now on balance been very profitable. That would have been an opportunity lost.

I am. Yet in my case, have to admit that having started all this 6 1/2 years ago with 20k+, North of £60 (30p), I am now only 10p short of reaching breakeven - this counting all the 75+ trades purchases since day 1. Managed to reach evens in Sep 2016 at 3.60 which proved to be a false dawn. No real intelligence on my part simply to reach this point after all this time only application of the accumulator principle. Still, feels like a real achievement to make four years of gains to offset the 1st 2 years of losses, using confidence gained in no small part to contributions here. Things are surely well set this time around with capital gains to come to reflect this will become a very good income stock at the 60% payout level. Don't do SP predictions but hoping for a maiden dividend in range of 2.3-2.7p, with double in the spring. Let's see.

Should be. Moz had two major hurricanes at the start of the year. Shipments were temporarily affected. Financials will be H2 weighted.

20 Aug.

In the absence of anything else going on, only to comment that after tomorrow’s debt repayment, the senior loans will finally be paid off, leaving a reduced set of lenders – EIB (~52%), EAIF (~20%), FMO (~16%) and ABSA (~12%). A milestone of sorts. Let’s hope it helps in clearing the path to the maiden dividend.

Think there is little to say here until a route to market is established. Everything else is a sideshow. SP simply drifting in the news vacuum. I know a decision is pending but does anyone have any firmer info on when this tender will finally be sorted out.

Base up by a similar amount today.
Over there UBS Group AG have increased from ~6.35% to 8.19%
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BSE/base-resources-limited-notice-of-significant-shareholder-ig71gdjmuo2i22n.html

3% grade is the ore in the ground and not the final product, so will not affect the sales price. It will effect the cost of production. This will not be disatrous as KMR operates off a predominantly fixed cost base. Grades will increase in future quarters and the commissioning of WPC C later this year will lead to a step up in production rates.

Berenberg price target now at 360. (They stepped up in Jan, Feb, March to 400 but have stepped back down since).

http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/6500851/Broker-Forecast-Berenberg-issues-a-broker-note-on-Kenmare-Resources-PLC.html

A couple of articles but nothing very different to the RNS...

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/production-decreases-at-kenmare-but-company-on-track-to-deliver-2019-guidance-38302314.html

https://www.miningmx.com/trending/37568-kenmare-detects-strengthening-in-ilmenite-market-for-remainder-of-2019/

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6497243/Broker-Forecast-Peel-Hunt-issues-a-broker-note-on-Kenmare-Resources-PLC

Yup, Aug will tell us more. You may well be correct with your concerns. Biggest concern for me today was forthcoming grades - Q2 3.07% was lowest ever. (Previous low was 3.62% in Q3/18 but otherwise always more than 4% over past 7 years). Report states grades will improve in forthcoming quarters. Will need to. Can't see them mining 9.9M every quarter simply to keep up with targets. Still, if they do what they say they are going to do, things will look increasingly rosy as next 18 month period draws to a close.

Nosir, I will respectfully disagree – if they hit their sales guidance, as they restated they would in this update, the net cash position will increase marginally this year, even allowing for all the development capex.

Also, looking deeper into the figures, the sales volumes and mix in H1/19 was very similar to H2/18. The report states that sales prices for ilmenite strengthened during the period and zircon was stable, so revenue should have increased, marginally.

The net cash position improved by 25M in H2/18 but decreased by 10M in H1/19 – a 35M.
The development capex is 75M in 2019 vs 25m in 2018 – a 50M increase y-on-y.
The cash swing indicates that the increase in capex was H1 weighted.
In H2, not only will sales be 20% higher to meet guidance but the capex will be less and the net cash position will increase overall.

So I remain very confident the dividend will come!

A few thoughts.

Mined ore of 9.9M was a company record by some margin. Shame grade of 3.07% was so dismal!
On track to hit guidance so nothing untoward on production side.

H1 shipments of 483.5kt. 2019 guidance to match 2018 on annual basis. H2 shipments will need to be 590.9kt to achieve this. So cash generation in H2 will recover, net cash will improve once again and current position is a low point. Funding dividends will not be a problem.

And dividends….. if they are to start in August as planned, thought they could have thrown out a small bone to say matters on track to pay a maiden dividend later this year… but they didn’t! Nada. Shame. Still confident though.

In tomorrow's update will be interesting to see if current net debt position has gone up or down. With the increased capex in 2019, any net gain (ie anything higher than +13.5M), may be an indicator of progress, anything more than 25M+ may be very good. Depressed SP may indicate otherwise! Let's see.

No doubt you are correct (it is listed on KMRs website as 11th https://www.kenmareresources.com/investors/financial-calendar) - I got 10th from the KMR News Section on LSE.

will be 10 July.

... accumulated a few more.

Nosir,

SP predictions are not my cup of tea either. Dividend policy of 20% of net profit is not one of my predictions - it has been kicking around since end of last year: this week's presentation - page 16, April's presentation - page 14 etc etc. Think this year profitability will rise as prod. volume decrease more than offset by increased ASPs. Taking '18 NP of 50.9M (page 12) gets to around 8p p.a., a little better depending if current USD FX continues.

My only prediction is that in Aug they will announce a maiden divi to be paid in Oct, with a 1:2 split vs end of year payout next spring, ie something in the range of 2.5p+ for Aug.

This presentation was basically a repeat of the mid April one. Pages 8 and 9 give a bit more flesh on the bones for the WCP B move but essentially numbers haven't changed.

'19 capex (dev+sus) 90M+ vs '18 capex of 40M. On a cash-bridge basis this will offset the 50M in cash generated in '18.

Production will moderate slightly in '19 but ASPs started from a higher point so revenue will rise, some cash will be generated (to pay for dividends) and profitability will rise.

Commitment reaffirmed to a dividend of 20% net profit. On an '18 basis this equates to 8p p.a. (4%+).

Numbers have been out there for quite some time but now we are further down the track, seems a few more are starting to get a handle on them.

Buck's point of where will things lie, after 150M dev capex over the next two years is out the way, is perfectly valid.

Final point, as an aside, video of the move was interesting. Obviously a good chance to dry dock the dredger / WCP B and do routine hull repairs which is a benefit hidden among the numbers.

Understand that it is only a bit of craic and you are correct that sentiment has been poor (for good historiical reasons) but for the rest you are behind the times. The PLC at end Dec had net cash of 15M (debt of 70M but cash of 85M), Last year - revenue 262M, EBITDA 93M, cash generation 48M. This year product prices moving up due to a supply deficit. Writing nonsense as you did below is symptomatic of why this BB was last year recognised as one of the worst on LSE and no-one but a small group posted here. It is a shame as TLOU is an interesting prospect and a few good bits of information are posted here but few have the inclination to wade through the chaff to get to it.