Member Info for Caposoka

The price of the New Options is fixed at 8c, 4.4p and BWP 0.64 - (cover page of the booklet, pages 9, 12, 19, 23, 24 and 58)

The New Options are granted to eligible shareholders and expire after 2 years. If they are not taken up, they expire. The New Options are non-transferrable (page 12, 2nd para, also page 17, 4th para, page 19 items vii and ix, page 25 last para).

In pdf in the Edit menu, there is a search / find function for key words that makes finding this v quick.

Hi Brad, with my share dealing account, the funds are cleared and available for use straight away so no issues here, only making a cash withdrawal involves a delay. So I had a lucky flip but simply pure luck that allows me to put more in the OO. I have applied for several times my entitlement as an excess, so like you hoping it is a success for TLOU.

Now happily sold above 2.2p, gone back in the OO and TLOU will end up with my cash after all.

Brad, the OO is partially underwritten to 2M, with TLOU hoping to raise 3M in total so my paltry sum will make no difference either way and TLOU will still get a decent raise. If they don't get the full amount, it will be because they did not put forward a decent enough case but for a PI to gain 6% is a worthwhile exercise. I received similar criticism for buying cheaper in the open market 2 years ago at the time of 5.75p but that made no sense at it was fully underwritten !!!

If the SP rises, as it has partially done so already, I may yet sell and take up the OO, in which it will have been no more than a lucky flip. It is rare to have two bites of the cherry. Isn't that what these BBs are for, - to help PIs identify good opportunities, no matter how fleeting.

I hope this fund raising goes well but I have managed to buy 5k worth at 2.069 this morning which after allowing for buying and future selling costs is 6% below the OO price.

Others may prefer the right to the future options at 4.4p for 2 years which is abs fine. I prefer to have the discount now and then to see which way the wind blows in the future. GLA.

On face of it agree, but would like an update on WCP B move - drop off in grades caused by a delay would outweigh everything else.

Agree and I hope the SP stays North of the OO and the share options at 8c are a sweetener. I do not think they are enough reason on their own to invest but they may tip the balance between buying in the open market and in the OO. If the SP falls enough (say 5% or more) below the OO, then I will go for the open market option as a bird in hand is worth more....

My share dealing account is late in posting the corporate notification for the OO but from the RNS I took it as being fixed already at 4c and 2.2p. If any different, please post any links available. GLA.

Looks like SP will keeping dripping lower and end up below OO price in which case cheaper to buy in the open market. Same happened with the placing at 5.75 in June 2018.

Yup. Slide 15 interesting though - indicates revenue : cash cost will be increasing industry wide between 2018 and 2023, ie sales prices set to increase, presumably if/as supply deficit emerges.

All resolutions passed so divi to be paid on Tues. (Wonder who/why 130 voted against !)
Also, 8.9% against Director remuneration.

for today's AGM. https://www.kenmareresources.com/application/files/6215/8935/4675/2020-05-13_KMR_2020_AGM_Presentation.pdf

Quite so. See bigger long term issue being stability of Euroland and future debt ratios in string of club med countries. Presumably EIB would be on the hook for a string of related projects. Would imagine OPEC will come to some sort of production cut in excess of the 10M they cut previously to raise it off the rocks. If/how they manage to deal with a 29M fall in daily consumption is something else. Unwinding lockdown may come in time to restore the balance too. Not too concerned either way as another player will simply pick up the KMR slack based on long term value investing.

Disposal of 4M shares (5.98% to 2.28%). Makes you wonder why they didn't do it much earlier (months/years ago) when SP was considerably higher (current SP is more than 20% below OO price of 235). At least it will be one less old chestnut to be brought up when discussing level of SP ....!

SandyShore, think the answer to your container question is that the missing number is 4, giving CMAU7048654, which is presently being shipped empty from China to Honduras. Indicates this was the container delivered to VAST's supplier before supplier onward shipped to VAST, so forget trying to trace this one. All other suffix numbers result in invalid container numbers. Also, please note that the four letters are irrelevant in determining which shipping line is being used. Containers are freely brought and sold all the time so a 'CMAU' container may have started off as a CMA CGM owned container but no more than that. The owner can choose to ship with any company. If you check the posts, you will see I was the initial poster that explained how to track the containers. I gave the eta for the first and last shipments. There is little benefit from trying to struggle with this issue for the shipments in between. Also time for clearance, onward transportation and set-up on site is unknown but the basic point is that is will be during June. GL.

There is a load of waffle being posted here. Containers are not unloaded in port with some used at sea and others on land. That simply does not happen. The container is shipped all the way to final destination. There are customs checks etc etc and all that it implies. The containers are either shipper owned or rented from the shipping company but all are unloaded after final customs checks and after discharge from the Port. Rented containers are unloaded at destination and returned empty to the shipping company. Containers are not renumbered either on a whim. Containers are inspected periodically, are registered and have a period of validity for use before the next inspection, otherwise the shipping companies cannot be sure of their structural integrity and will not accept them. Simply go on the shipping company tracking websites and track the container numbers. If you cannot find it, you are either on the wrong company website or have an incorrect container number.

BF, sure you are correct. If I follow my WCP B concerns through to their logical result, then there could be bumpier times and better opportunities ahead. Yet, as KMR goes ex-div on 16 April and 5.52c is approx 4.5p, thought I would buy now regardless - at least it covers costs/spread etc and then sit tight as KMR was approx 290p prior to market collapse.

Overall point well understood, Nosir but the fall from net cash to net debt of circa 25M in the past 3 months is nothing untoward, certainly not in the way you are thinking. At time of Q4 projected 2020 capex rose from 80M to 120M. It became clear to me that 25M of 2019 capex had been kicked over into 2020 due to delays with WCP C. I wrote to IR requesting clarification on this, they responded very promptly and I posted their reply on here. As part of the renegotiation they decided to fund an upgrade of the MSP at a cost of 15M with a rapid IRR. That one looks like an easy win, justifying the extra debt taken on. With hindsight, the renegotiation of debt looks like a smart decision - the risk of C19 affecting WCP B's move, this year's maiden dividend being paid, which was something you were previously sure would not come to pass!!

Yes we put forward different views. Mine has changed a bit given the grade / production output continues to fall and the need to move WCP B becomes ever more apparent in the figures.

I actually think it is a sticky moment for KMR at present. In Europe, things can be opened / shut to calibrate keeping a series of C19 peaks below the healthcare threshold and in parallel increasing the health capacity, to buy time for testing, a vaccine etc. In Africa it is different. The healthcare is so low it is difficult to tolerate any outbreak so it is harder to allow any re-opening of borders until….. KMR have a contingency of 6 months additional mining but the WCP B move is needed so this is a large risk at present. The only silver cloud is that a delay allows additional cash generation prior to the capex being spent.

When considering whether the new finance was needed or not (and it is surely a good thing it was arranged when it was, prior to C19 issues), it is worth remembering under the original facilities of repaying to Feb 22, gross debt at present would have been 53.4M + interest vs KMR’s current net debt of 9M. The capex for 2020 was planned to be 80M, with stronger cash generation in 2021, so I continue to think it would have been manageable but touch and go when factoring the recent grade drop-off. Refinancing was needed for additional headroom and to ensure this month’s dividend would be paid !!

At the Q4 update, capex for 2020 was increased from 80M to 120M. Approx 25M was carried over from 2019 due to the WCP C delay in commissioning (now apparent in the cash figures - net cash 13.7M at year end and net debt 9M now). There was also 15M for an additional capex project – MSP upgrade - which was not included as part of our past discussions but reflected KMR’s confidence in their finances.

Finally, I do not see any meaningful share buybacks this year. This looks like a typical KMR smokescreen to distract from current falling grades/production. It does not make any sense to do it prior to WCP B’s move and is it beneficial to do it with borrowed money during this higher risk period? For me, 2021 onwards.

All said, I’m still accumulating all the time and added another 4,800 shares this week at 184.6.

Correct. To add - Shipment will be unloaded from MSC Zoe on 1 May at Port Said, Egypt, (prov) loaded on to Maersk Kiel on 8 May and arrive Constanta on 21 May, this being the final shipment. The first of the three shipments left Shanghai 18 Mar, eta Istanbul 15 April, eta Constanta on 23 April. 2nd shipment sometime in between. All dates subject to change.

If you do the same exercise for what were described as the first two containers BMOU3158521 and SEGU2839261 and use Yang Ming (https://www.yangming.com/e-service/Track_Trace/mul_ctnr.aspx?str=SEGU2839261,BMOU3158521,&rdolType=CT) instead of Maersk, you will see both containers are travelling Shanghai to Constanta Romania and are presently eta in Instanbul on 15 April where they may or may not be shipped onto another vessel but will get to Romani also during May 2020.