Member Info for Caposoka

Don't see dividends being cut.
Pre covid there were special dividends.
This year instead of paying the special they used excess cash on share buybacks (£150M) which more or less equated to the share issued to raise money raised during covid to buy land.
Y23 revenue may fall but the dividend is well covered. if you're concerned, just don't expect a special or a buy back.

I listened in last night. Presentation was good and the project figures are excellent but I sold out first thing this morning on the back of the recent spike in SP.

Main points I took from yesterday was the Feasibility Study is next, hopefully complete by the end of next year. First revenue is by end of 2025 at the earliest, possibly early 2026 and the capital expenditure will be funded by 70% loans / 30% equity, this being very indicative (and in my view likely to involve a higher level of equity).

I get that the PEA unlocks the door to discussion with lenders and is a big step forward but will today's shareholders be rewarded long term or due to fund raising and dilution, will it be tomorrow's shareholders who will be benefit? I don't know. So I sold on expectation it will drift down on news, waiting for more studies with no revenue and then I'll look again in a couple of months to see where they are at.

In last night's presentation, GL hoped to be debt free by June /July next year, not by Q1.... this based on successful sidetrack, compressor installation, getting up to 12M scufs per day and an average unhedged selling price of 200p per therm.

As Profitbagger pointed out last week:

"H1: Accounts receivable 13.3M vs accounts payable (ie incl prepayments on contracts) 23.7M vs cash of 15.9M"

So now cash is 20M... but that's was due further prepayments following end of the reporting period.... so are there really funds sloshing about to do share buybacks?

Also, they raised 15M two years ago so are statements made by other posters that they are continuing to grow cash monthly true? or a simply a repeat of CFs comments in the couple of years which were shown to be otherwise. The reason given for the raise was to have a strong balance sheet to impress pharma as part of winning contracts. Does it make sense to hand it all back to shareholders after sitting on it for 2 years?

OO just needs to get it's revenue up and do what they promise. The rest will follow.

... there.. their..

Don't think anyone doubts OO can be profitable but on a fixed cost base, they need to get there revenue up.

Guidance of 50M for Y22 but only achieved 18.9M in H1 so they have a lot of catching up to do to reach their own guidance, - a 65% increase in H2 revenue compared to H1 - which if they achieve it, makes you wonder why they haven't been closer to doing 30M+ per half year period already considering their order book has been reportedly full for the past year and and a half.

These doubts in management's credibility will only dissipate when they start to consistently achieve what they promise to achieve.

No doubt Sept's production figures will be released just before so expecting positive news if they're willing to do the webinar on the back of them.

I wasn't going to getting any more but did a second, small trade of 55k at 10.27 which did go through and I was very happy with. Not confident it will move soon, at least until some decent results are released, but tucked away in the bottom drawer for the long term. GLA.

Flova, a decent post. I added a few more today for the same reasons. Like others today, paid under mid price so felt like a decent price. Added on hope that the predicted Y22 revenue of 50M vs Y21 revenue of 40M, on a largely fixed cost base will feed through to profitability and some cash generation and the hope this will reflect in the H1 results, which will lead to an uptick in interest. Not with great confidence or faith as that was frittered away by OO in the past two years but with hope nevertheless for the future.

I purchased 920k too. At 15:04. Coincidence, eh? :)

You're calling these people derampers and trolls yet these are the type of posts that I find most useful on these BBs. Certainly better than posters posting multiple times, day after day that every is constantly rosy. I think PB's questioning why DIM is delayed another 5 months, with no revenue coming in and being announced in an unofficial podcast is a fair enough point. Who knows when DIM's IPO will take place now and what the business case is. It's been kicking around 2 years and still we are at this point. Go ahead and keep filtering those who don't share the view but I for one appreciate the question being asked.

Been out all day so just seen your replies Russky and Nathan - many thanks. ATB.

Who are CHDR and is this work that OO could have done?

1.5m over 2 years.
At that rate they would need to announce at least one of these every week to hit their 50m p.a. target.
Routine but still, good news.

WG - quite true. It may not be necessarily the same. Still, mantra has been to repeat the POLB model. Let's see.

Russky - DIM is simply a punt at present - no contracts, no revenues, no valuation (tho some numbers are being banded around), simply not enough info to make an investment other than on speculative terms. It is priced as it is. You may br right that it's not priced properly yet. Question is, it worth qualifying for shares or waiting until the dust has settled, buying after and not being tied in for (possibly) 9 months. Months after POLB floated, SP is 10.5p vs 10p start. Not much of a return and what effect did it have on ORPH's SP after? I'm not rushing to sell or buy, just contemplating the issue as I don't know best course.

A dividend is just a distribution of what is already owned by shareholders so it all makes no difference.

DIM is reflected in ORPH’s SP so after DIM is split off, ORPH should fall to reflect that and the sum is the same (theoretically).

Announcing the DIM dividend is unlikely to lead to a build in SP. It’s already priced in anyway and is it really worth qualifying for DIM shares when you can just buy them freely after IPO and not be tied in for 9 months, which is unappealing to many.

Announcing a dividend retrospectively doesn’t work. Some shareholders would benefit from the dividend and selling with a ‘full’ SP. Others who buy after the retrospective dividend end up buying on a fall premise that were purchasing ORPH including DIM and immediately suffer a fall in ORPH’s SP. The whole idea is non-sensical.

Not really.
Revenue est for Y21 down to 40M.
No longer H2 weighted with lower revenue/profit than H1.
Cash balance will be flat by end of year.
Further wait for the three dividend specie.
Not to say that results are not positive and direction of travel is not onward and upward but beware the spin.

No chance to buy. Now back to how it started and rising.

Get all that. Same is true for adv payments that flattered end of year cash postion. Point is can't see revenue being in 30s or even high 20s when forecast is 40-45M for year and it's H2 weighted.

Get all that. Same is true for adv payments that flattered end of year cash postion. Point is can't see revenue being in 30s or even high 20s when forecast is 40-45M for year and it's H2 weighted.