Member Info for Caposoka

I am not as negative as you lot. Seems ok to me. Almost a year ago, at time of Y18 results they stated they were considering new more flexible facilities so not a real surprise.

Interest rates are marginally lower than existing arrangement, although fees will be more than the saving.

Net cash at H1/19 of 3.5M, plus 110M term loan, plus whatever they are producing as they go along means they have bullet proofed themselves for WCP B's move which is a 150M project afterall.

Repayments start after 27 months (Feb 2022) and then 7 equal parts every 6 months to Feb 2025 by which time WCP A is coming and they may want to negotiate something else or have accumulated sufficient cash.

This de-risking will further secure shareholders the 60% payout or share buy-back from 2021.

Yup. Also perhaps uncertainty as time of 6 monthly rolling contract negotiations.

Last report, KMR maintained guidance for year which means Q4 will need to be / they expect it to be a good one in terms of sales volumes as they catch up from earlier in the year. Hoping so.

The market dynamics descibed in #1030 look v encouraging for KMR. SP has been going the other way. In my view, a bit of a disconnect, so I invested again this week. Also hoping WCP C gives a postive news story in the coming weeks, even if already well flagged to those that count.

Big Earl - you are correct of course. If you compare Y17's or Y18's HMC : production ratio, in both years the ratio was above 75%, Q1/19 was 73% so if you use any of these %s you get to the 110kt referred to and beyond. Think WASP will rise in H2/19 as well. Kept my figures deliberately a little lower to remain conservative and not ruin the basic point that WCP C should be a good investment, realised in a short period.

Taking 150kt p.a. HMC @ 70% being converted to final product is 105kt p.a.
Taking USD 239/t FOB average selling price in H1/19 gives additional revenue of USD 25M p.a.
vs investment of USD 45M and annual running costs, it should pay for itself within 3 years.

Thought 226.5 was good long term value so accumulated a few more.

Iluka's presentation had a bit more information on market outlook.

https://www.iluka.com/getattachment/05f17d9f-def3-4e98-a2e0-900f41e2bd42/presentation-tzmi-congress-2019.aspx

This year Kenmare (J. Dibb) was one of the speakers - nice to see them get involved in these type of events, having kept a lower profile in past years.

Copy of presentation available at: https://www.kenmareresources.com/investors/reports-and-presentations

For those whose glass is half full..... ilmenite up, rutile up, zircon down....

"The emerging ilmenite deficit, created by strong demand and supply restrictions, continued to support a strengthening ilmenite price through the quarter. Demand for Base Resources ilmenite from existing customers remains greater than the Company’s ability to supply and enquiries continue to be received from potential new customers globally.

Ongoing constraints on high grade feedstock supply has continued to support price improvement for rutile. Prices for Base Resources rutile strengthened again in the quarter with further improvements contracted for the December quarter.

The zircon market came under renewed pressure through the quarter due to ongoing global economic uncertainties. Major global suppliers of zircon are reported to have offered price rebates and discounts to some customers for the remainder of the 2019 calendar year. As a result, the price for Base Resources zircon in the coming quarter has been contracted at a slight discount to September quarter prices"

M&G splitting from Pru has caused a changeover in name of holding but FIL have moved from over 5% to over 6%.

Production of 255kt was ok.
Shipments of 192.9kt poor ("poor weather and a 35kt shipment crossing over into Q4").
Guided sales for year > 1mt so will need to ship more than 325kt in Q4.
At least they built up stock in Q3 to be able to do it.
In balance - a few minor bumps but progressing well.

Q3 report tomorrow. No cash figure will be quoted but hoping for sales in 250-275kt range, which will be more than enough to increase net cash position after H1 low point and allowing for all ongoing capex. Anything more than this would really show sales catching up after effects of Q1 hurricanes. Production - less mined ore but higher grade. Hoping for 250kt+.... all very exciting!!

Agree Kenmore is off the scale and I'm a wee bit behind you. My wife is younger still which is good obviously although sometimes wish she had reached that pleasant age !!

I don't know enough to say one way or the other. Getting their bond sale away was clearly a major step but they are paying a coupon of 9.5% on £350m which will constrain future earnings, plus other problems to be solved. https://www.ft.com/content/f7f1c628-e5fb-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59 Depends on whether you are in for a short term or long term recovery. Personally have now decided to stay clear - can see lower risk blue chip options elsewhere which are offering very decent dividends due to depressed SPs and possibility in SP recovery once Brexit uncertainties pass.

PREM up 47% today.
Missed out there through being cautious.
Maybe saved myself from some pain later. Who knows. Happy waiting for KMR to do it's bit.

I looked at MTRO last week the day after they got their bond sale away, V. Hill departed. They had risen to approx. 230 and thought they would continue to have a good recovery but was worried about being spiked. Through luck more than good judgement, since dropped to 205ish but still interested.
Put my money into VAST instead at .25. They appear to be on cusp of funding this week.
Looked at PREM who also appear on good news but was afraid of being spiked.
Also invested heavily in TW. due to Brexit worries and 12% dividend…

Been a v. long wait for some but ex-div tomorrow...!

As I posted at time of Q2 update, the net cash position at H1/19 was a low point. To hit sales guidance for 2019 (guided as similar volumes as 2018) means sales volumes will need to be more than 100kt higher in H2. The WASP was in excess of 230/t and sales prices are set to rise in Q2. H2 revenue will be at least 25M higher .The dividend cost less than 2.5M, offset partially by fallling interest costs. The capex in H2 will not be any higher than H1. The debt repayment in H2 is the same as H1. All of this will be more sufficient to lead to a higher net cash position at year end.

Berenberg reiterates buy at 360

Looks like it will be 8 cents over the full year (2.6% at today's SP).