Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Production of 255kt was ok.
Shipments of 192.9kt poor ("poor weather and a 35kt shipment crossing over into Q4").
Guided sales for year > 1mt so will need to ship more than 325kt in Q4.
At least they built up stock in Q3 to be able to do it.
In balance - a few minor bumps but progressing well.
Q3 report tomorrow. No cash figure will be quoted but hoping for sales in 250-275kt range, which will be more than enough to increase net cash position after H1 low point and allowing for all ongoing capex. Anything more than this would really show sales catching up after effects of Q1 hurricanes. Production - less mined ore but higher grade. Hoping for 250kt+.... all very exciting!!
I don't know enough to say one way or the other. Getting their bond sale away was clearly a major step but they are paying a coupon of 9.5% on £350m which will constrain future earnings, plus other problems to be solved. https://www.ft.com/content/f7f1c628-e5fb-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59 Depends on whether you are in for a short term or long term recovery. Personally have now decided to stay clear - can see lower risk blue chip options elsewhere which are offering very decent dividends due to depressed SPs and possibility in SP recovery once Brexit uncertainties pass.
I looked at MTRO last week the day after they got their bond sale away, V. Hill departed. They had risen to approx. 230 and thought they would continue to have a good recovery but was worried about being spiked. Through luck more than good judgement, since dropped to 205ish but still interested.
Put my money into VAST instead at .25. They appear to be on cusp of funding this week.
Looked at PREM who also appear on good news but was afraid of being spiked.
Also invested heavily in TW. due to Brexit worries and 12% dividend…
As I posted at time of Q2 update, the net cash position at H1/19 was a low point. To hit sales guidance for 2019 (guided as similar volumes as 2018) means sales volumes will need to be more than 100kt higher in H2. The WASP was in excess of 230/t and sales prices are set to rise in Q2. H2 revenue will be at least 25M higher .The dividend cost less than 2.5M, offset partially by fallling interest costs. The capex in H2 will not be any higher than H1. The debt repayment in H2 is the same as H1. All of this will be more sufficient to lead to a higher net cash position at year end.
Skid, you are quite right. It is not an achievement. I said as much in my post. Not sure why you are even asking the question. My losses were in the first couple of years, never to be recovered. Opportunity loss does not come into it as the loss was already incurred. The achievement here was to stick with it, ignoring the downbeats or is it deadbeats on the way. After the recent climb which may be immaterial for you but not for me, the last 4 years have now on balance been very profitable. That would have been an opportunity lost.
I am. Yet in my case, have to admit that having started all this 6 1/2 years ago with 20k+, North of £60 (30p), I am now only 10p short of reaching breakeven - this counting all the 75+ trades purchases since day 1. Managed to reach evens in Sep 2016 at 3.60 which proved to be a false dawn. No real intelligence on my part simply to reach this point after all this time only application of the accumulator principle. Still, feels like a real achievement to make four years of gains to offset the 1st 2 years of losses, using confidence gained in no small part to contributions here. Things are surely well set this time around with capital gains to come to reflect this will become a very good income stock at the 60% payout level. Don't do SP predictions but hoping for a maiden dividend in range of 2.3-2.7p, with double in the spring. Let's see.
In the absence of anything else going on, only to comment that after tomorrow’s debt repayment, the senior loans will finally be paid off, leaving a reduced set of lenders – EIB (~52%), EAIF (~20%), FMO (~16%) and ABSA (~12%). A milestone of sorts. Let’s hope it helps in clearing the path to the maiden dividend.
Think there is little to say here until a route to market is established. Everything else is a sideshow. SP simply drifting in the news vacuum. I know a decision is pending but does anyone have any firmer info on when this tender will finally be sorted out.
Base up by a similar amount today.
Over there UBS Group AG have increased from ~6.35% to 8.19%
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BSE/base-resources-limited-notice-of-significant-shareholder-ig71gdjmuo2i22n.html
3% grade is the ore in the ground and not the final product, so will not affect the sales price. It will effect the cost of production. This will not be disatrous as KMR operates off a predominantly fixed cost base. Grades will increase in future quarters and the commissioning of WPC C later this year will lead to a step up in production rates.
Berenberg price target now at 360. (They stepped up in Jan, Feb, March to 400 but have stepped back down since).
http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/6500851/Broker-Forecast-Berenberg-issues-a-broker-note-on-Kenmare-Resources-PLC.html
A couple of articles but nothing very different to the RNS...
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/production-decreases-at-kenmare-but-company-on-track-to-deliver-2019-guidance-38302314.html
https://www.miningmx.com/trending/37568-kenmare-detects-strengthening-in-ilmenite-market-for-remainder-of-2019/
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6497243/Broker-Forecast-Peel-Hunt-issues-a-broker-note-on-Kenmare-Resources-PLC